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Changed Itineraries, Higher Fares: How the War in Ukraine Is Affecting Travel

How travelers feel the effects of Russia’s assault on Ukraine depends largely on where they’re going, though the price of oil will weigh on all airfares, even domestic.

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By Elaine Glusac

Just as the travel industry was seeking to climb out of a two-year depression, Russia’s assault on Ukraine has scrambled schedules and given Americans pause as they consider international vacations.

The extent to which travelers will feel the effects of the war depends on where they’re going, though experts say the rising price of oil will likely affect all airline ticket prices, even on domestic routes.

For Americans with international plans, the world map, which recently seemed to be expanding with the relaxation of Covid restrictions in many countries, has shrunk anew. Operators have largely scrapped travel in Russia for the rest of the year, which greatly affects Baltic cruise itineraries where the marquee port of call was St. Petersburg.

All of this comes at the time of year when many Americans plan their summer vacations. Some are hesitating. In a recent survey of about 350 American travelers on the impact of the war, the market research firm MMGY Global found that 47 percent are waiting to see how things pan out in Ukraine before making Europe plans. The conflict leapfrogged Covid-19 as a factor influencing decision-making, with twice as many respondents citing concern about the war spreading beyond Ukraine as those who fear the pandemic.

So far, travel companies are not seeing mass cancellations as travelers, who may have been conditioned to remain flexible by the pandemic, are sticking to their resolve. Nearly 65 percent of American adults surveyed by TheVacationer.com , a travel strategy website, said they would accept higher prices, longer transit times or another deterrent in order to travel in 2022.

“We’re not seeing a change in behavior for now from our American travelers,” said Sarah Casewit, a senior travel curator with Origin , a membership-based travel-planning service, which has seen a rise in Europe bookings in recent weeks.

Whatever inconveniences travelers experience is, of course, nothing compared to the suffering inflicted on Ukrainians. Many travelers want to support Europeans who have been hoping for a robust summer season, but do not want to complicate humanitarian efforts to help war refugees.

Given the unpredictability of the war, travelers will need to remain flexible as flight operations, cruises and tours adjust to the conflict.

Turbulence in the air

No commercial carriers from the United States fly to Russia, and those with code-share and interline agreements with Russian carriers, including Delta and American, have cut them.

But the Federal Aviation Administration’s prohibition on flying over Ukraine, Belarus and much of Russia requires some routes to make costly diversions. For commercial flights departing from the United States, these routes are largely limited to India, which only reopened to tourists in mid-November. United Airlines has temporarily suspended service between San Francisco and Delhi and between Newark and Mumbai, though it is continuing service to Delhi from Chicago and Newark.

Rerouting to avoid Russian airspace on Asia flights by flying lower latitude routes over Alaska adds to the cost of operating those flights, said Robert Mann, an airline consultant, who estimated an extra hour of flight time can add up to $12,000.

Those aren’t the only additional expenses that will be passed on through higher ticket prices. The rising cost of oil, expected to rise even more after the Biden administration banned Russian oil imports, is contributing to higher airfares.

But for now, interest in Europe remains high among fliers. The airfare app Hopper found prices on Europe-bound flights from the U.S. have risen 16 percent since mid-February, from $660 to $763 round trip, which it attributes to post-Omicron travel enthusiasm and the usual seasonal cycle of rising prices.

Chelsea Randall and Jacob Meziani became digital nomads during the pandemic — they both work in information technology — living in 16 cities in North America in the past year. In April, the engaged couple plan to move to Europe for several months, first traveling to Portugal and then Poland where they plan to visit Mr. Meziani’s family in Lublin, about four hours from the Russian border.

“We are going to stall a little bit, maybe a week or two, to see how it looks for surrounding countries to Ukraine since we don’t know what will happen with refugees,” he said. “If it stays the same as it is, we will book and get trip insurance or an Airbnb with a later cancellation date that can be more flexible.”

Cruises changing course

Cruise lines were counting on 2022 as their comeback year. But those that operate in and around Russia are quickly changing their routes.

From boutique lines like Silversea to big-ship specialists like Carnival , cruise lines have canceled Russian port visits. Princess Cruise Lines is modifying 24 itineraries initially scheduled to visit St. Petersburg.

“Some spend three full days there, longer than any other city in Europe,” said Samuel Spencer, the general manager of Ocean & River Cruises Travel , an agency based in Calgary, who describes the city’s attractions, such as the State Hermitage Museum and Peterhof Palace, as unmatched. “It’s a major blow.”

Nonetheless, lines are working to secure substitute ports. Oceania Cruises , which is also canceling Russian stops in Murmansk, Archangel, Vladivostok and the Solovetsky Islands, plans to add additional overnights in Copenhagen and Stockholm in place of St. Petersburg.

Outside of Russia and Ukraine, where Viking canceled its river sailings, river cruise companies largely remain committed to their European schedules.

“As we have yet to set sail for the 2022 cruise season, we have no current plans to cancel or adjust Eastern European cruises at this time,” said Pam Hoffee, the managing director of Avalon Waterways , which does not operate in Russia, in a statement.

As with pandemic-inspired travel cancellations, domestic destinations may benefit. Bookings at American Queen Voyages , which offers cruises on American rivers and lakes, shot up 30 percent in the past two weeks, which it attributed to travelers choosing domestic over European travel.

“The biggest impact I have seen are those that have a cruise booked who do not want their money to go to Russia,” said Victoria Hardison-Sterry, a Florida-based travel adviser with Lakeshore Travel who had one client switch from a Baltic cruise in 2023 to an Alaska cruise. “My clients have been outspoken about not adding to the Russian economy.”

Others are worried about traveling in neighboring regions that may be flooded by war refugees, and where the presence of tourists would be a hindrance.

In about six weeks, Mr. Spencer is slated to take a group on an AmaWaterways cruise through southeastern Europe, including traveling through Romania and ending in Budapest. “Clients were initially reassured that the route was 1,200 to 1,500 kilometers away from the Russia-Ukraine border, but that situation has changed as cities far inland have been targeted by Russia,” he said, noting Budapest is only a few hours from Ukraine. For now, the trip is on, though Mr. Spencer is following the news closely. “We travel to support local economies and interact with the cultures, but if they’re dealing with an exodus from Ukraine, we don’t want to be a burden.”

Ensemble Travel Group , a travel adviser consortium, is taking about 150 of its agents on a river cruise in Europe in April. The travelers plan to pack blankets and hygiene kits to donate to a nonprofit helping refugees while they are in Budapest with the goal of doing “something meaningful to help those impacted by this horrible situation,” said Todd Hutzulak, Ensemble’s executive director of marketing, whose grandfather is from Kyiv.

Redirecting tours

Perhaps no sector of the travel industry has been more affected than tour operators that had trips scheduled in Russia and, to a lesser extent, its neighbors.

Companies including smarTours , Kensington Tours and G Adventures have canceled upcoming trips there. Smithsonian Journeys canceled or rerouted all 2022 trips that visited Russia and said cancellations in Europe have been less than one percent since the war began. Ride and Seek, a bike tour company, plans to continue to operate its Paris-to-St.-Petersburg tour , adjusted to ride to the Russian border, then retreat to Tallinn, Estonia, for the final evening.

“Traditionally, Russia is an emerging market for us that’s growing,” said Bruce Poon Tip, the founder of G Adventures, which canceled a dozen tours in the country including its popular trans-Siberian train trips.

The company’s trips in border countries like Mongolia, the former Soviet republics of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and Turkey remain on the books. The conflict so far has not triggered mass cancellations.

“In regular times, clients would have said, ‘I’m not going to travel,’ but people have gone two years not traveling,” he said. “There’s a push and pull thing going on.”

Many travelers, newly unbound by Covid-19 restrictions, are sticking to their bucket-list plans. The tour company Atlas Obscura said Romania, which borders Ukraine, was among the top-selling trips in the past week.

“After two years spent close to home, our travelers are planning ambitious, far-flung trips,” wrote Mike Parker, the general manager of the company’s travel division, in an email.

Mir Corporation , a Seattle-based tour company that specializes in travel to Russia and the region — and whose name translates from Russian as “peace” and “world” — has had to cancel a “significant” number of its trips, according to Annie Lucas, the vice president. Meanwhile, trips to the southern Caucasus region, Central Asia and the Middle East are on.

“People are hesitant, of course,” she said in a call from Tbilisi, Georgia, where she travels frequently. “We are hoping the strengthening of U.S. and European efforts will lead to cease-fire negotiations to end this senseless suffering.”

Elaine Glusac writes the Frugal Traveler column. Follow her on Instagram at @eglusac .

Follow New York Times Travel on Instagram , Twitter and Facebook . And sign up for our weekly Travel Dispatch newsletter to receive expert tips on traveling smarter and inspiration for your next vacation. Dreaming up a future getaway or just armchair traveling? Check out our 52 Places list for 2022 .

Our Coverage of the War in Ukraine

Zelensky Plans Major Shake-Up:  President Volodymyr Zelensky pushed ahead with his sweeping overhaul  of the senior government ranks as the head of Ukraine’s ruling party released a slate of nine candidates for top cabinet positions.

Head of Power Company Fired:  The head of Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s electric company, was reportedly blamed for failing to fortify energy infrastructure , which has come under steady Russian bombardment, leading to blackouts.

A Deadly Russian Strike:  Russian missiles struck a military academy in eastern Ukraine, killing more than 50 people  and underscoring Moscow’s superior firepower  in one of the war’s deadliest attacks.

Ukraine’s Scarred Students:  As children across Ukraine return to school, a teacher in Kyiv worries for her pupils , many of whom have fled frontline areas or lost family members in the fighting.

How We Verify Our Reporting

Our team of visual journalists analyzes satellite images, photographs , videos and radio transmissions  to independently confirm troop movements and other details.

We monitor and authenticate reports on social media, corroborating these with eyewitness accounts and interviews. Read more about our reporting efforts .

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Ukraine invasion — explained

The roots of Russia's invasion of Ukraine go back decades and run deep. The current conflict is more than one country fighting to take over another; it is — in the words of one U.S. official — a shift in "the world order." Here are some helpful stories to make sense of it all.

With Ukraine at war, officials hope to bring tourism back to areas away from fighting

Ashley Westerman

Tourists by the boulevard at a Black Sea resort in Odesa, Ukraine, on Sept. 3. Tourists are not allowed to enter the public beach due to the presence of land mines and other explosives. Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto via Getty Images hide caption

Tourists by the boulevard at a Black Sea resort in Odesa, Ukraine, on Sept. 3. Tourists are not allowed to enter the public beach due to the presence of land mines and other explosives.

SLAVSKE, Ukraine — Ukraine's war-battered economy is expected to shrink by at least a third this year, hitting virtually every sector. This includes the tourism industry, which officials say had started to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic before Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

But the Ukrainian government still hopes its people will continue to travel within the country — and spend money in locales on the Black Sea and in the Carpathian Mountains in the west.

"A lot of people in Ukraine still don't feel it's OK to go on vacation or travel," Mariana Oleskiv, chair of Ukraine's State Agency for Tourism Development, tells NPR.

More than seven months into the war, "we understand that many people in our country live in very bad conditions, that some people don't have electricity and our soldiers sleep in trenches," she says.

According to agency data provided to NPR, domestic tourism, which the agency defines as leaving your home city for leisure, increased 24% between 2019 and 2021. Nearly 4.2 million foreign tourists visited Ukraine in 2021 — a 30% jump over the previous year.

Oleskiv says she forecasted that the trend would continue into 2022, but then the war started.

Trips into Ukraine by international tourists are down between 85% and 90%, says Oleskiv. Tour operators in safer areas of Ukraine reported to the government that occupancy rates are down 50% this summer compared to last. She says tourism in places such as Odesa and other parts of southern Ukraine closer to the front line of the conflict has "stopped completely."

Tourists take the Soviet-era Zakhar Berkut resort chairlift in Slavske, Ukraine, in August. The tourist town is located in the Carpathian Mountains, a wildly popular vacation destination for Ukrainians. Ashley Westerman/NPR hide caption

Tourists take the Soviet-era Zakhar Berkut resort chairlift in Slavske, Ukraine, in August. The tourist town is located in the Carpathian Mountains, a wildly popular vacation destination for Ukrainians.

The slowdown is being felt across the country, including in the Carpathian Mountains, a popular vacation destination in the relatively safe western part of the country.

Katerina Minich manages the Dvir Kniazhoiy Korony hotel in Slavske, a popular ski resort town about 85 miles south of Lviv. Minich tells NPR that the number of guests at her 15-room hotel is down about 60% from last year.

"Overall, from February to [August], the hotel's earnings are 70 to 80% lower" compared to last year, Minich said by text message. She says other hotels in Slavske, whose population has shrunk since the war broke out, have experienced a similar drop in guests and revenues.

Tourists ski near the Chornohora mountain range, part of the Carpathian Mountains, in western Ukraine on Feb. 21, 2021, one year before the Russian invasion. Markiian Lyseiko/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images hide caption

Tourists ski near the Chornohora mountain range, part of the Carpathian Mountains, in western Ukraine on Feb. 21, 2021, one year before the Russian invasion.

The true damage Russia's full-scale ground invasion has wrought on Ukraine's domestic tourism sector won't be fully known for months, Oleskiv says. But her agency plans to start trying to turn things around with a new tourism campaign called "Get Inspired by Ukraine" — which she says aims to tell Ukrainians they have a right to take a rest.

"At some point, we need to stop and take a breath and don't be so involved in the news," Oleskiv says.

Some Ukrainians are already following the advice.

"I think that in order to be more effective, you have to relax sometimes," Natalii Baliuk, 35, from Kyiv said on a visit to Slavske in August. "Otherwise, you just will not be able to do anything and you cannot serve this country."

Baliuk and her friends traveled to the Carpathians for Ukrainian Independence Day not only because they believed it to be safe, but also because one of her friends could not travel abroad because martial law prevents men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving Ukraine.

The conflict in Ukraine could affect tourism throughout all of Europe, according to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit . Russian and Ukrainian tourists spend a combined $45 billion a year, but that number is expected to decrease. In addition to the loss of tourists, the report says the conflict will also raise food and fuel prices, affect traveler confidence and disposable incomes, and restrict airlines and airspace.

Vendors sell food, beverages and souvenirs at a lookout spot in Slavske, Ukraine, in August. The week of Ukrainian Independence Day, the tourist town saw a small spike in visitors, but overall tourism this summer was down significantly across the Carpathian Mountains because of the war. Ashley Westerman/NPR hide caption

Vendors sell food, beverages and souvenirs at a lookout spot in Slavske, Ukraine, in August. The week of Ukrainian Independence Day, the tourist town saw a small spike in visitors, but overall tourism this summer was down significantly across the Carpathian Mountains because of the war.

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Press release

Ukraine: UNESCO estimates the damage to culture and tourism after 2 years of war at $3.5 billion

Press kit on UNESCO's actions in Ukraine  

To date, the total cost of physical damage to the culture and tourism sectors in Ukraine is estimated by UNESCO at nearly $3.5 billion, compared to $2.6 billion a year ago, an increase of 40%.

UNESCO’s is the third assessment of the damage and needs since February 2022, which was carried out jointly by the World Bank, the Ukrainian government, the European Commission and the United Nations.

This estimate covers a total of 4,779 cultural and tourist assets reported as damaged by the Ukrainian authorities. This includes damage to sites and buildings of heritage value (estimated at $2.41 billion); damage to works of art, collections and cultural repositories ($161 million); damage to buildings and workshops dedicated to the cultural and creative industries ($262 million); and damage to tourism facilities ($650 million). The Kharkiv region was by far the worst affected, accounting for almost 25% of the damage recorded, followed by Donetsk region at 14.7% and Odesa region at 7.6%.

Since February 2022, the culture and tourism sectors have also accumulated lost revenues of  $19.6 billion, representing an increase of 30% in one year. More than half of this loss - $10.6 billion – has been incurred by the city of Kyiv alone, mainly due to the fall in tourist numbers and the sudden slowdown of the creative industries.

According to UNESCO, nearly $9 billion will need to be raised between 2024 and 2033 to finance the recovery and reconstruction efforts. This funding requirement has increased by 30% in one year.

UNESCO has raised USD $66 Million to alleviate the emergency  

To meet the most urgent needs, UNESCO has raised more than $66 million over the past 2 years from its Member States and the private sector. Japan alone has supported the Organization's efforts in Ukraine to the tune of almost $26 million . These funds have been used to implement dozens of short- and medium-term actions in the fields of culture, heritage, education and the media. The Organization has also opened a liaison office in Kyiv to coordinate all of its operations, currently staffed by a team of around twenty people. 

Among other initiatives in the field of culture, UNESCO conducts following: 

Preventing damage   

Since spring 2022, UNESCO has been supporting the protection of cultural property by supplying emergency equipment and setting up risk management systems. It advises Ukrainian cultural professionals on protecting works of art and improving fire prevention systems. UNESCO has also begun to inventory and 3D-digitize cultural property in Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa and Chernihiv. This data will provide an essential documentary basis for reconstruction, and enhance UNESCO’s efforts to fight the illicit trafficking of cultural property, already being implemented through its training and coordination of the police and justice services at regional level . 

Paving the way for reconstruction  

UNESCO has initiated several consolidation and repair projects, including in Odesa at the Museum of Fine Arts, the Museum of Archaeology and the House of Scientists, as well as at several museums in Kyiv. In Odesa, whose historic centre has been on the World Heritage List since January 2023, the Organization will soon install a temporary roof on the Cathedral of the Transfiguration, thanks to support from Italy, to protect the nave from bad weather while reconstruction work is carried out. 

Training 1600 cultural professionals   

Over the past two years, UNESCO and its partners have trained more than 1,600 cultural professionals to build the capacity of national and local institutions throughout Ukraine, the majority of whose staff had never before been faced with emergency situations. The training included damage assessment, securing museum collections and historic buildings, and preserving living heritage. 

Support for cultural life  

UNESCO has funded residencies for nearly 100 artists in exile. It is also working to ensure the continuation of cultural activities in Ukraine. In order to achieve this goal, it has just awarded grants to 14 new artistic projects across the country. To support Ukraine's artistic and cultural community, a UNESCO cultural centre will open in Lviv in mid-2024, thanks to funding from Spain. 

Press contact

Phone: +33145682293

About UNESCO

The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization contributes to peace and security by leading multilateral cooperation in education, sciences, culture, communication and information.   With 194 Member States, UNESCO employs over 2000 people to coordinate a network of over 2000 protected cultural and natural sites. Headquartered in Paris with offices in 54 countries, its Director-General is Audrey Azoulay.

“Since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that the defenses of peace must be constructed” - Constitution of UNESCO, 1945.

More information:  www.unesco.org  

This assessment was conducted thanks to the financial support of UNESCO Heritage Emergency Fund .

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‘Shock therapy:’ War tourism in Ukraine attracts foreigners to see scars of Russia's invasion

Driving out of Kyiv the roads tell the dark history of the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion. A low buzzing sound echoes across the highway as hundreds of cars drive toward the suburb of Bucha. “It’s from tanks and heavy vehicles. They left these cuts in the asphalt that produce this creepy sound,” tour guide Svet Moiseev told the Kyiv Independent on a tour on Feb. 27. Moiseev has told the same fact to dozens of tourists since launching a war tourism excursion shortly after Russian troops retreated from Kyiv Oblast on April 3, 2022, leaving behind decimated towns and villages . The Kyiv local, who works for Capital Tours, saw an opportunity to utilize his decade-long experience as a guide to inform foreigners about Russia’s brutal invasion and raise money for the war effort. He crafted an emotional route through the Kyiv suburbs of Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel, and Borodyanka telling intricate stories of Russia’s attempt to capture the capital and the brutal occupation.

Read also: Prosecutor General: Russian troops committed 9,000 war crimes in Bucha district

He also mixes into the tours Ukraine’s history explaining the country’s centuries-long struggle against Moscow to a largely North American and western European audience. It’s important that people understand that Kyiv is not part of a “big Moscow,” he said.

Ukraine’s tourism industry predictably plummeted after Russia’s invasion. The initial flurry of journalists and political delegations who came to the country following the invasion have also migrated elsewhere.

But as tourists gradually begin to return, the sector has adapted by offering war tourism opportunities. Not everyone is excited about showing foreigners the scars of war — some locals balk at the idea of displaying their most vulnerable moments to tourists. Already Moiseev said he’s noted an uptick in tourists. The first wave arrived in the summer of 2022 and peaked in the summer of 2023 with one or two tours a day. His clientele is a mix of business professionals, political figures, people visiting friends, and curious tourists, he told the Kyiv Independent. “People want to understand how (this war) could happen in the 21st century.  And, of course, they want to pay tribute to those who were killed and those who defended.”

‘Shock therapy’

As business is currently not profitable, Moiseev said he sees himself more as a volunteer doing important work by informing visitors about the Russian occupation.

Tours start at $120, half of which is donated to the Ukrainian army, and the company operates without any support from organizations. While some of his guests purely want a historical tour of Kyiv, others are eager to spend half a day in the capital’s liberated suburbs. Most tourists are empathetic and genuinely want to learn about the war but Moiseev admitted that a few were simply thrill seekers.

For Moiseev, it's important to show the reality of war to those who have never experienced it in the hopes it will educate people about Ukraine’s plight and increase support for the country abroad.

“This destroyed apartment block is a bucket of ice-cold water on your head to bring it back into reality,” Moiseev said, pointing to a five-story apartment building torn apart by an aerial bomb.

“It's shock therapy for those who forget that the war in Ukraine is still ongoing.”

Reconstruction work has largely brought these formerly-occupied areas back to life, but Moiseev believes in keeping some of the damaged buildings as a “sad museum.” He draws parallels to Chernobyl, one of Ukraine’s most popular tourist destinations which Capital Tours would visit pre-2022. Both serve as informal museums that remind people of horrific incidents, he said. For tourist Daniel Hosie, Moiseev’s tour was an opportunity to better understand a war he had been following daily from his native Scotland. Seeing with his own eyes the destroyed bridge in Irpin that Ukraine blew up to prevent Russia’s advance across the Irpin River was a striking moment. “It was surreal. That bridge is a memorable one for me, because I saw it fall, and I remember thinking that this is crazy. And then I’m there, seeing it,” he told the Kyiv Independent.

Uncomfortable stares

Moiseev interweaves personal stories from locals alongside technical battle details. In one story he tells on the tour, a family in the town of Hostomel outside of Kyiv were forced to hide in a Soviet-era bunker next to their house, braving the 30-meter dash home to gather supplies as shells rained down.

Not everyone wants their life to be turned into a tourist attraction. Signs have appeared on derelict houses warning visitors not to enter or take photographs. Standing inside the charred remains of his kitchen, Hostomel resident Serhii Ahiyev said that he is wary of guides capitalizing on his bombed-out street. “Sometimes they bring tourists on purpose to make money from it. Not to talk about what happened,” he told the Kyiv Independent. Ahiyev does, however, support the idea of drawing attention to the Russian occupation. While he was irritated by the flocks of journalists and visitors in the early days of the liberation, he has since changed his mind and believes people should see the “terrible actions of the Russians,” including tourists.

As a visitor, Hosie believed it was important to visit the satellite towns to get the full experience of Ukraine during the war. But he noted feeling uncomfortable when faced with the grim reality of occupation. “I didn't want it to be an Instagram photo shoot. You have to show respect,” he said.

“These are people's lives, people's homes. I was aware to keep that in the back of my mind, that this isn't a holiday. You're here to see what's going on and experience it.”

Moiseev himself is often conscious of the stares from locals during tours but still believes that it is important to show foreigners, comparing it to a tour of Auschwitz. “Most people understand that international support comes from knowledge and information. So (locals), for the most part, tolerate the visitors.”

Humanitarianism and tourism

Tourism can also provide tangible help by supporting salaries and bringing in foreign currency, according to project manager Mykhailo Cherevyk from Visit Ukraine , one of Ukraine’s foremost tourism websites. In 2022, the company regularly assisted journalists and political delegations, connecting them with locals and charity organizations. But with attention shifting away from Ukraine, tourists now make up 80% of Visit Ukraine’s clients. In the high season last year, 20 to 30 people per month used Visit Ukraine’s services which range from insurance to tours. Three months ago, the company launched an experimental project called “ Donation Tours .” For just under $2,000, the project combines traditional tourism with a humanitarian mission while partnered with a local guide in southern Ukraine. Visitors are shown around the city of Mykolaiv, before undertaking a medical training course in the afternoon. The next day, local guides take them to the oblast’s formerly occupied territories where they distribute aid to either medical facilities, children's centers, animal shelters, or provide heating equipment and construction materials, depending on their choice.

The idea was born out of a conversation between Visit Ukraine and a humanitarian center in Mykolaiv, to help meet the needs of residents. Many of the local guides have no prior experience in tourism but know the safe routes to ensure guests are well protected. “It is one of the ways to resolve the problems that we have with tourism and life in the south of Ukraine,” Cherevyk said, adding that the region has suffered immensely from the invasion.

Read also: ‘We can’t wait for peace:’ Reluctant at first, Denmark takes on rebuilding war-torn Mykolaiv Oblast

For now, the idea is too radical for most, with only one or two bookings a month. But Visit Ukraine plans to increase marketing and collaborate with international organizations to attract more people. “We are working to make sure that more people can see the things that the Russian army does to Ukrainian lands and people. And provide help for southern regions,” Cherevyk said.

The future of Ukrainian tourism

The State Agency for Tourism Development is not actively encouraging international tourism at the moment. But it is using the break to develop domestic tourism, which has increased in western Ukraine. “We have huge losses, but at the same time we have possibilities for some new destinations to enter the tourism market,” Chairperson of the agency Mariana Oleskiv told the Kyiv Independent. The agency calculated that tourist taxes contributed Hr. 1.89 billion ($49.2 million) in the first six months of 2021, making up roughly 3% of Ukraine’s GDP that year. Now, western regions primarily hold up the tourism sector as Ukrainians opt to vacation in the Carpathian mountains or previously little-visited cities like Chernivtsi in the southwest. Developing western regions for Ukrainian tourists will in turn prepare Ukraine for the eventual return of foreigners, according to Oleskiv. She noted that popular destinations like Lviv became successful following a steady influx of Ukrainian tourists over the years which built its reputation as a hotspot for foreigners. By 2019, international tourists amounted to 50% of Lviv’s tourism market. The agency believes that war tourism will be a major attraction once travel is safe. Currently, they are developing commemoration routes to mark the horrors inflicted by Russia, from the massacres in Bucha to torture chambers and destroyed infrastructure, like the Irpin bridge.

“If you see it on TV, it's a completely different feeling to when you are there. We want to attract a lot of tourists from all around the world to visit those sites to understand a little bit more about this war to prevent such wars in the future,” Oleskiv stressed. “It’s something we need to do.” A memorial to fallen soldiers has already opened on the outskirts of Moschun, a village in Kyiv Oblast. Located in a woodland clearing, dozens of photographs of men and women adorn the trees surrounded by shrines, letters, and a large tapestry of an Orthodox Icon.

Shrapnel-damaged mugs and a metal plate also sit in a nearby trench once used by the defenders battling Russian troops. More of these memorials could soon be established all over Ukraine, particularly in the east, according to Moiseev. They serve both as a reminder for locals and as an educational site for tourists, he said. But Oleksiv doesn’t want the sole focus to be on the war. The agency is taking inspiration from countries like Croatia which overcame its war-torn reputation to become a tourist destination, selling its culture and landscape while still telling its troubled history. Ukraine could do something similar, she said, by attracting visitors to its mountains and seaside while injecting stories of the war into tours. For now, war tours like the one offered by Moiseev are likely to be a brief snapshot of the current time rather than a long-lasting option. Reconstruction has already erased much of Bucha and Irpin’s scars, while Moiseev notes that it also takes an emotional toil. “It is working now, not as a business, but basically as a remembrance,” he said. “After it's all finished, we will come back to Kyiv culture, borscht, and normal things.”

Read also: Reconstruction in Kyiv suburb sabotaged by local officials, discouraging foreign investors

We’ve been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent .

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One Year On, Tourism Stands Firm in Support of Ukraine

• All Regions
• 23 Feb 2023

This week, we mark a sad anniversary. It has been one year since the Russian Federation chose to invade Ukraine , in a clear breach of the Charter of the United Nations and of international law.

The invasion has exacted a terrible price. Millions have been forced to flee their homes – right now around 6 million people, 65 per cent of them women and girls, are internally displaced. And the number of casualties keeps growing by the day, including civilian victims as homes and even hospitals are deliberately targeted. The invasion has also created a humanitarian and human rights catastrophe not seen in Europe since World War II. And it has undermined the sense of security and trust we depend on to get the world moving again after the impacts of the pandemic.

From the very start, UNWTO has led tourism's response to the crisis. Our Members moved swiftly to suspend Russia from our Organization . At the same time, stakeholders from across the sector rallied in support of the Ukrainian people. As many as 8 million of them have sought refuge across Europe and UNWTO commends tourism actors who provided them with means of transport, accommodation and other practical assistance. We also thank the countries hosting refugees until returning is safe.

With no end in sight for the war, our solidarity must hold firm . This unwanted anniversary offers a moment to take stock and reflect. The past year has shown us the remarkable strength of a people determined to hold onto their freedom and sovereignty. It has also shown us the importance of standing together , both as an international community and as a major economic sector, and staying true to our shared values whatever the cost.

With each passing day, the united front that much of the global community has adopted since the invasion is also under attack, especially as countries everywhere continue to feel the economic fallout of the conflict and its social cost. That's why UNWTO will continue to amplify tourism's calls for peace and urge an immediate end to all hostilities. We will also be there when the war ends, as it surely will. Then, tourism's unique power, proven time and again, to build trust back, promote dialogue and understanding across borders, and provide opportunities, will be vital to help the people of Ukraine re-build the country they have already given so much to protect.

Zurab Pololikashvili Secretary-General

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Ukraine war: international tourism hit as Russian travellers disappear

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• Bahasa Indonesia

Tourism destinations globally are seeing a significant hit to their economies as Russians stay at home due to war-related sanctions , with possible long-term effects on international tourism.

This comes as European countries with Russian borders say they may ban all Russian tourists.

Russians were the world’s seventh biggest tourist spenders before the pandemic, splashing out US$36 billion (£31 billion) annually.

Vietnam’s Nha Trang , nicknamed “Little Russia” , attracted a large number of Russian tourists before the war. The beach resort saw a fast post-pandemic recovery thanks to the return of Russian tourists in 2019. Russian tourists spent an average of US$1,600 per stay in Vietnam, while the average for foreign visitors is US$900 .

Upmarket Vietnamese hotels, previously popular with Russian tourists, are almost empty or have been sold . The tour guide business has also been affected .

Nha Trang isn’t alone. In Thailand’s resort Phuket , shops and bazaars would normally be bustling with Russian tourists. Hotel companies remain uncertain about their future after many Russians cancelled their holidays when Russian airlines suspended flights to Phuket in March 2022. While foreign arrivals represented 59% of arrivals in Phuket airport before the pandemic, this figure was 35% in the first half of 2022 .

Read more: Ukraine war prompts Baltic states to remove Soviet memorials

Now resorts dotted around the globe, from Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt to Varadero in Cuba, are all suffering economic hits with low hotel occupancy levels , resulting in lost jobs, bankruptcies and falls in income .

Disappearing visitors

Turkey attracted seven million Russian visitors in 2019 to tourist destinations such as the Mediterranean resort of Antalya. It was popular with Russians because of its beaches, all-inclusive tours packages, and easy-to-obtain tourist visas on arrival . The city saw more than 3.5 million Russian visitors in 2021.

With forecasts of fewer than 2 million Russian tourists in 2022 and a US$3 billion to US$4 billion drop in tourism revenues, the change has led to job losses , just as fuel and other prices increase.

It’s an economic blow , as each tourist in Turkey generates roughly three temporary jobs and each tourism dollar generates up to US$2.50 worth of revenue for industries supplying tourist resorts , according to Al Jazeera.

The fall in tourist receipts and hard currency is putting pressure on the Turkish economy and its currency, as tourism accounted for 13% of GDP before the war and the pandemic.

Tourism issues

The EU has already suspended the European Union-Russia visa facilitation agreement, which made it relatively easy for Russians to obtain travel documents. Earlier sanctions had included bans on EU and Russian airlines flying to and from Russia. They also limited Russian tourists access to international credit overseas.

Many wealthy Russian tourists have switched to trips to Dubai. However, high-end shops in New York, London and Milan, and in glitzy destinations like St. Moritz and Sölden and popular spa towns such as Karlovy Vary in the Czech Republic, are missing the business of the wealthiest Russian visitors.

On the French Côte d’Azur , luxury boutique hotels and expensive seafood restaurants have experienced a drop in business. They have not been able to replace wealthy Russian tourists with enough travellers from countries such as Bahrain .

Smaller countries, which hosted large numbers of Russian tourists as lockdowns eased, including Cyprus, the Maldives, Seychelles and the Dominican Republic found their post-pandemic tourism recovery short-lived. Cyprus, whose service industry including tourism, accounts for more than 80% of the economy is at risk of losing up to 2% of annual GDP if Russian and Ukrainian tourists do not return to the country.

Cuba saw an increase of 97.5% in Russian tourists in 2021, according to the country’s National Office of Statistics and Information . When that market collapsed , Cuba’s economic recovery plans were hit . Russians were expected to account for 20% of Cuba’s visitors in 2022, with far fewer tourists visiting the resort of Varadero .

Finding alternative visitors

Thai resorts are hoping for a growth in Middle Eastern visitors and Indians to help fill their hotels. Egypt is looking to increase visitor numbers from Latin America, Israel and Asia. Germans and others , including Iranians, are already replacing Russians in Antalya. In Vietnam, there are efforts to increase visitors from Korea, Japan, western Europe and Australia.

However, many destinations were unprepared for the shortfall in Russian tourists, and are not capable of replacing 30-40% of their market with new travellers.

Now that Russian tourists are cancelling trips to the resorts of Crimea as it comes under fire in the Ukraine war, some destinations are hoping Russians seek an escape by transiting through Serbia , Dubai and Qatar. Destinations such as Armenia, Vietnam and Turkey are also embracing the Russian payment system Mir to make it easier for Russian tourists to pay.

The efforts that destinations are making to replace Russian visitors will take considerable diversification, marketing and time, as tourists from new markets look for different activities. While Vietnam hopes for 5 million tourists in 2022, this is far from the 18 million visitors they received in 2019.

Even when the war ends, there is little likelihood that tourism will return to normal. Many European countries may not want to welcome Russian tourists for some time.

It will be interesting to see whether signs written in Russian in the Egyptian beach town of Sharm el-Sheikh or Varadero in Cuba will remain, or be replaced with Chinese or other languages in the upcoming tourist seasons.

• Ukraine invasion 2022

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The war and tourism: security issues and business opportunities in shadow of Russian war against Ukraine

• Open access
• Published: 13 October 2023

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• Artur Roland Kozlowski   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5359-192X 1 , 2  

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The effects of war have far-reaching consequences. They bring numerous victims—also civilians, destruction of infrastructure, enterprises, and citizens’ property. They cause political instability and lead to great security concerns, especially in tourist destinations. Experience with various wars indicates a minimum three-year negative effect of warfare on the tourism industry. The terrorist industry is also negatively affected by terrorism, which can occur regardless of the duration of the war itself. Terrorist attacks are deliberately organized in such a way as to evoke images of human victims, which affects the fear of tourist arrivals to such heavily burdened places. The paper discusses potential scenarios for the continuation of the war and its impact on the operational activity of international business with Russia. Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine brings closer the threat of war itself and shock to various industries, including the tourism industry. The paper presents the effects of the war on tourist trips from Russia but also Ukraine and its effects on traditional touristic destinations. Issues of threats to business are raised but also opportunities appearing on the horizon. The visa ban for Russians introduced by the EU with the simultaneous escalating and ruthless Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians does not inspire optimism. It should be expected that the 2023 tourist season will remain burdened with the stigma of war and the limited movement of Russians around Europe.

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1 Introduction

The effects of war have far-reaching consequences. They bring with them numerous casualties—including civilian casualties, destruction of infrastructure, businesses, property of citizens. Cause political instability, lead to high security concerns, especially in tourist destinations. Omer and Yeşiltaş study for Iraqi Kurdistan Region for the period January 2003 to September 2018 indicate a minimum of three years of negative effects of hostilities on the tourism industry (Omer and Yeşiltaş 2020 ).

The tourism industry is also negatively affected by terrorism, which can occur regardless of the duration of the war itself. Terrorist attacks are deliberately orchestrated in such a way as to echo images of human casualties, influencing fears of tourist arrivals towards such high-pressure locations. The negative impact of terrorism on tourism itself has been written about by many (Fleischer and Buccola 2002 ; Buigut et al. 2017 ; Poprawe 2015 ), although it is worth to stress it has not always a long-term negative impact (Rittichainuwat and Chakraborty 2009 ; Yaya 2009 ).

Diana Ojeda points the way for Columbia to restore its territory to tourism. She draws attention to the role of imaginative geographies and the need to outline, secure and promote “imaginative counter-geographies”. In the conclusion to her study, she raises the role of feminist geopolitics as the need to create alternatives to the hegemonic order, which enables the creation of new geographies of imagination that deal with the production of everyday experiences of security across physical and symbolic boundaries. On a practical level, the Colombian government undertook a series of measures oriented towards securitisation process and touristification, which resulted in a new cartography: an archipelago of tourist trenches linked by militarised routes. From the perspective of both public finances and the labour market it was the reactivation of tourism that provided a constructive impetus for the country’s internal safety (Ojeda 2013 ).

To a lesser extent than Columbia two decades ago, terrorism has posed a challenge to the tourism industry in Turkey. Not only the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) but also other organisations carried out armed actions inside Turkey bringing threat to tourists. Although terrorism may be a major bane for Turkey’s tourism industry, as the results of research conducted in the pre-covid period from January 2012 to December 2018 indicate, it did not, from a short-term perspective, have a determinant effect on the volume of tourism to the country. However, when the longevity of the challenge in question is summed up, there is already a noticeable impact on the industry’s revenue and so it is estimated that 1% increase in terrorist attacks resulted in a serious number of casualties (injuries) and led to a decrease of approximately 0.1% in long-term tourism revenues (Kaya et al. 2022 ). The findings confirm the need for continued support to guarantee the safety of this country thereby increasing foreign tourists’ sense of confidence in future holiday arrivals. This also ties in with the edu-tourism sector, which, even more than traditional tourism, requires a safe environment for sustainable development (Hong et al. 2023 ).

As Russia’s war against Ukraine continues, in order to draw conclusions on its consequences in terms of security and international business, it is important to approximate possible scenarios for its end.

Russia began military action against Ukraine in 2014, annexing Crimea and occupying part of eastern Ukraine—the Donbass region, creating the so-called Lugansk and Donetsk republics there. Since then, unoccupied Ukrainian territory free of Russian troops has been continuously shelled from alleged separatists in eastern Ukraine, resulting in some 15,000 human casualties by the end of 2021.

Following President Joe Biden’s rise to power in the United States, Moscow-Washington talks have intensified. It can be assumed that the talks were linked to an influx of information about Russia’s intensifying preparations for further interference in Ukrainian affairs. For the Kremlin, the annexation of Crimea and parts of the Donbass, in the absence of formal acceptance of these acts by the international community, was a motivating factor to take more radical action, with the aim of exerting pressure on Ukraine itself and, incidentally, on the wider West.

President Putin explained his current (24. 02. 2022) attack on Ukraine by saying “the denazification of Ukraine, the liberation from the undemocratic Zelenskii government and the need to demilitarise this state, which threatens Russia’s security”. In doing so, he added the need to block the country’s aspirations to join NATO and the EU. While the first two arguments are an example of defamatory accusations without substance, but intended to carry an emotionally negative message to the Russian and Russian-speaking public, the arguments about aspirations to join NATO and the EU are as true as possible and reflect the efforts of the Ukrainian authorities and the majority public support to integrate with Western organisations, trusting that this is the only way to ensure the economic and state security of Ukraine in general vis-à-vis its aggressive eastern neighbour.

In 2007, Putin announced at the Munich conference that the greatest tragedy of contemporary Russia was the collapse of the USSR and that he sees it as his mission to restore the ruled state’s due standing and respect on the international stage (Speech and Q&A February 10, 2007 ). It treats its mission as a historical obligation, in keeping, moreover, with the imperial continuity of the Russian state, and the structures of the state in all areas of its activity were to be subordinated to the chief aim of restoring Russia’s power. Thus, it can be assumed that aggression against Ukraine does not exhaust the aspirations of Putin’s power camp and that even the complete occupation of Ukraine would not determine the final delimitation of the Russian space of territorial aspirations which can be describe (Johnson 2022 ; Kozłowski 2016 ; Nygren 2008 ) as following:

geographical dimension —to establish direct Kremlin control over neighbouring states, particularly the so-called ‘near abroad' states’:

Belarus—already subordinated,

Ukraine—in process with Putin's hopes of imminent subjugation,

Moldova—here the Russians have occupied part of the territory since Soviet times—Transnistria,

Georgia—the 2008 war was aborted and the successful attempt to install a pro-Russian president did not produce the desired reorientation of the state anyway, so it can be expected that Moldova or Georgia will be Putin's next targets, provided he manages to conquer Ukraine fairly quickly,

Central Asian states, particularly Kazakhstan.

influencing, albeit temporarily or by sector, the control of other countries in order to consolidate their presence there and influence the decisions of governments, companies, etc.

This group of countries may include governments generally sympathetic to pre-war Russia: Austria, Germany, Hungary, Italy,

Poland and the Baltic states are considered Russophobic, but this does not prevent the Kremlin from supporting anti-system parties;

political dimension

destabilisation of liberal democracies

by supporting parties and their leaders who represent a high potential for anti-system action,

the disintegration of western structures, especially the EU

support for social polarisation and direct (financial) support for separatist organisations and those critical towards the EU,

supporting pro-Russian politicians on their way to take over and exercise power in their countries: Trump, Salvini, Le Pen, Farage et al.

corruption of western politicians—by embedding them in the management or supervisory boards of Russian state-owned enterprises,

through direct funding of their political activities,

by engaging in the election campaigns of “their” pro-Russian candidates and supporting them with activities such as disinformation and manipulation in all types of media in favour of their own candidates;

economic dimension —the dependence of key Western countries on natural resources from Russian territory, especially energy resources

eg. Nord Stream, gas critical infrastructure (storage facilities), refineries (in a sense also located in Poland the Gdansk Refinery),

in subservient states, taking over key sectors of the economy (Armenia, Belarus).

In the face of Russia’s incomplete realisation of the dimension of its political goals of destabilising the West, with the progressive cultural westernization of Ukraine in terms of aspirations and optics, and, strange though it may seem, Putin’s age influencing his impatience with the lack of progress in subjugating Ukraine, he made a personal decision to initiate military action against the neighbouring state. The military action was initiated by Russia communicating to its own population that it was solely a ‘special operation’ aimed at the alleged liberation of Ukraine. Assumed to be a quick military attack, a so-called blitzkrieg, the aggression of Russian troops from the territories of not only Russia and annexed Crimea, but also Belarus, in the face of unexpected armed resistance from the Ukrainians by Russian intelligence, turned into a full-scale war with all the consequences for the attacked state: destruction of infrastructure, economy, loss of life, wave of refugees.

2 What are the effects of Russia’s war against Ukraine so far from a general and tourism business perspective?

Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s state integrity has been met with unequivocal condemnation from the West and progressively more sanctions introduced. Their arsenal and scope covered wide areas of activity of the Russian state and its elected representatives—especially representatives of the Russian government and those representatives of the administrative authorities, the media and the oligarchs who openly support the armed attack against the Ukrainian state.

From a strategic perspective, the most significant sanctions are those of the financial, energy, consumer or high-tech sectors. The freezing of $630bn of Russian financial reserves in foreign currencies contributed to Russia’s first inability since 1998 to meet financial obligations for its $100 m of bonds. What undermines Russia’s credibility as a debtor for future bonds. Financial transactions severely restricted after Russian banks were excluded from Western interbank systems.

The sanctions imposed on the energy sector are taking on an ever-increasing dimension with the effect of raising the prices of these raw materials and energy in general and thus increasing the inflation felt in many countries, including the West. Here, in the short term, Russia has secured its 2022 revenues by selling less at a higher price but the effects of the loss of confidence of Western customers could seriously reduce financial revenues for the Russian budget and thus severely limit its investment opportunities as well as perpetuate the recession. The arrangements of the European Union countries and the United Kingdom in the dimension of trade in Russian energy resources assume a near total ban on all imports of oil brought in by sea from Russia by the end of 2022 (BBC 27 June 2022 ). A ban on imports of this raw material has also already been introduced by the United States. The EU has also banned coal imports since August, and Putin’s closure of the Nord Stream pipeline marks a new dimension in the trade war with the West European unity in this regard is undermined by Hungary, which does not alter the fact that Russia has lost its credibility as a partner in securing raw materials for its contractors.

The arsenal of sanctions against Russia is further expanded by a ban on trade in Russian gold, Western luxury goods, and finally sanctions on individuals, including the confiscation of their movable property such as luxury superyachts (BBC 06 April 2022 ). To date, more than 1000 Russian citizens and the businesses they run are subject to sanctions announced by the EU, UK, US and Canada, and the list is growing with further Russian attacks on civilians. In addition, a ban has been imposed on direct Russian flights in the airspace of the listed Western states. These other sanctions introduced are affecting mutual business relations, but by the end of the 2022 summer season, they have not eliminated the tourist traffic of Russians to Western countries, especially Mediterranean destinations. The visas for Russians introduced from September 2022 changed this situation Footnote 1 (Council of the EU 09 September 2022 ).

The dimension of international business relations with Russia is completed by the mass exodus of large foreign companies from the Russian market. The list opens with global and popular brands such as McDonalds, Coca-Cola, Starbucks, and Marks & Spencer, but also with the likes of BP, Exxon, Shell and many others. These companies have written off huge investments in this previously very promising market and only a few have decided to continue working together like business as usual. One of the last one to announce its losses is German BASF which takes for 2022 a $7.9 billion writedown as its Wintershall Dea energy business pulls out of Russia (Reuters 18 January 2023 ).

The largest presence on the Russian market had US companies as on 24th of February 2022 they numbered 409 companies, of which only 6% continue to operate or cooperate with Russia until January 2023. Another big investor was German companies, of which 19 out of 127 remained on the Russian market, i.e. 15%. This is a reduction of its number from 23 in September 2022 (18% accordingly). British companies have sharply reduced their activities with Russia among which with 95 per day of invasion cooperation continues one only. From a business ethics perspective it is puzzling to note the high proportion of some European companies continuing to operate on the territory of the aggressor state (Table 1 ). For September 2022 these included Austrian companies (50%—no pulls out until 19th January 2023), French (over 30%—one pull out in September’22 till January’23), Italian (over 30%—one additional pull only till 19th January 2023), Spanish (over 20%—one additional pull only till 19th January 2023). More than 20 per cent of multinational companies from leading economies still operate in Russia having more than 20 large businesses there before 24 February 2022.

The trend of multinational companies leaving the Russian market between September 2022 and January 2023 is presented in Fig.  1 . A slowdown in the exit of multinational corporations from the Russian market is evident but the trend has not been reversed and still successive decisions by the managements of these companies result no longer in mass, but in individual decisions to leave the market of the aggressor state.

Top 16 countries with more than 20 companies operating in Russia before 24. 02. 2022 which totally halting Russian engagements or completely exiting Russia—state as of the day 03.09.2022 and 19.01.2023

Analogous to the exit of multinational corporations from the Russian market is the behaviour of the boards of multinational corporations continuing business operations in Russia. While 2.1 percentage points of multinationals exited Russia between September 2022 and January 2023, 1.1 percentage points fewer companies continued their ‘normal’ operations over the same period, bringing the ‘continuing business-as-usual’ indicator down to 14.9% of companies not modifying their operations in Russia as a result of the country’s war against Ukraine from the 24th of February 2022 (Fig.  2 ).

Top 16 countries with more than 20 companies operating in Russia before 24. 02. 2022 which are just continuing business-as-usual in Russia—state as of the day 03. 09. 2022 and 19. 01. 2023

Although the war is still ongoing the economic impact on Russia is already evident. Inflation of nearly 18%, a drop in retail trade of around 9%, including a large drop in automotive trade of over 80%, is indicated. (BBC 27 June 2022 ). Even though the Russian GDP for 2022 was expected to fall significantly, with estimates varying from 7.8% to as much as 30% Footnote 2 it ultimately ended with negative growth of -2.1% (IFS 2023 ). Undoubtedly, Russia owes this to the Asian markets where it can still count on significant revenues from energy raw materials. Sakhalin 2 liquefied natural gas (LNG) is estimated to bring double the value of revenues in 2023 compared to the previous year (Reuters 26 January 2023 ) Footnote 3 . The Russian economy has been experiencing perturbations in the tourism business since the first stage of aggression against Ukraine with consequences for its own citizens as well as tourist destinations.

The annexation of Crimea by Russia in March 2014 brought enormous changes to the functioning of this hitherto Ukrainian territory. The local population was overwhelmed with consternation after the Russians held an illegal referendum and incorporated the Crimean peninsula into the Russian state which is still not recognised by the overwhelming majority of countries in the world today. The consequences of such Russian action were the international sanctions imposed on Russia and annexed Crimea resulting in the blocking of financial transactions and international cross-border traffic with the region. This clearly had a negative impact on Crimean tourism business which was restricted to receiving tourists mainly from Russia (Godwin 2014 ; Shishkin 2014 ). In the first period the Russians themselves were cautious about visiting this annexed territory and this despite the subsidies for air transport and holidays offered to their citizens by the Russian government (MacFarquhar 2014 ). Places in some resorts managed to be filled with wounded veterans, but even so the negative effect of Western sanctions could not be avoided (Economist 2015 ).

Russia’s tourist traffic to Crimea has managed to recover over the years but by the time of the new escalation of the war against Ukraine in February 2022 foreign tourism had not returned to pre-annexation levels. And while Western sanctions against Russia after the annexation of Crimea did not block Russians from travelling to Western countries for holidays the destination of the Russian-controlled part of the Black Sea basin was the very first choice for many. Yuri Barzykin, Vice President of the Russian Union of the Tourism Industry, in an interview with the trade press, concluded as follows: Most Russians prefer a beach holiday and unable to go abroad people go to Crimea and Krasnodar Territory. In doing so, he expressed the hope that in time Crimea too would attract investments such as in Sochi where international hotel chains such as Hyatt, Swissotel and Rixos have invested (kudamoskvazovet.ru 2022 ).

In domestic travel Russian tourist traffic to Crimea has gained ground already reaching more than 17% in 2020 (Table 2 ). The argument in favour of this was the opening of the road link via the Kerch Bridge in 2018 which connects the Crimean Peninsula with the Russian Taman Peninsula (Krasnodar Krai). In the current war this bridge represents a potential strategic target for Ukrainian troops as it already had been shelled ones. The situation may repeat as cutting off Russian supplies of military supplies to occupied Crimea is a strategic goal when there are plans to reconquer these territory from Russia. The annexed territory ceased to be free of military action after the Ukrainian army successfully attacked Russian military targets in Crimea. The 2022 July and August explosions caused some Russian tourists to flee Crimea but also resulted in a slight reduction in interest in holidaying in the region. From a tourism perspective year 2022 comparing to year 2021 saw a 32% drop in Russian trips to Crimea (ATOR 27 December 2022 ).

The impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine in relation to Crimea also has an additional and rather unanticipated economic effect on Russia. Well, since the effective summer (2022) Ukrainian offensive pushing the Russian army out of the occupied eastern and southern lands of Ukraine, there has been a noticeable decline in property values on the Crimean peninsula (Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty 07 January 2023 ). This is linked to both the warfare effects itself and declarations by the Ukrainian President to seek the liberation of the entire pre-2014 territory of the state. The front-line defeats suffered by the Russian army in the second half of 2022 introduce far-reaching uncertainty as to the final Crimea statehood.

In international terms tourist trips from Russia have been declining since 2014 with a bump recorded in 2015 when tourist traffic fell by 31% the largest decline since 1998. Only 2016 and beyond proved to be better. Growth dynamics were shown by destinations such as the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, Thailand, but also the Czech Republic and Italy (btet.ru. 2022 ).

Russia’s war phase against Ukraine so far has not eliminated outbound tourism to Western countries. For many operators, hoteliers and restaurateurs they were a desirable recipient of their services especially when considering the average level of spending by Russian tourists when travelling abroad (Table 3 ).

In years Pre-covid 19, Russian tourists were keen to choose holidays in Turkey and European countries with their activity not indifferent to the political activity of the Russian authorities, as reflected among other things, in the collapse of tourism to Turkey in 2016 and its recovery after the normalisation of mutual relations between the two countries (Table 4 ). A similar effect is expected from the Autumn 2022 final suspension of the visa agreement between the EU and the Russian Federation.

The last pre-covid year (2019) reflected directional trends in Russians’ overseas tourism. Turkey’s popularity has increased significantly, with a smaller increase but still a significant increase in tourist traffic to Italy but also after five years since the annexation of Crimea tourist travel to the Ukraine has increased. The trend of post Crimea annexation and pre-covid tourism destinations presents Fig.  3 . Among the top tourist destinations, the largest percentage increase in tourist trips was recorded to Tunisia, Georgia, Cuba, Turkey, Abkhazia, China, the Dominican Republic and the only European country in this group, Italy (which is the only one of this group to lose out as a result of the war on edu-tourism). It is worth to add that in 2019 two more destination were popular which are UEA 968,000 and Cyprus 860,000 tourists visiting from Russia (Table 5 ).

Trend of tourist trips of Russian citizens abroad in thousands, 2014–2019—with a reference point to the year 2014

Turkey, Cyprus, Egypt, Italy, Greece were favourite Russian tourist destinations. Turkey alone received 6.7 million Russian tourists in 2019. Expectation of continues growth to around 10 million Russians tourists in 2022 had not been met. Taking the war situation into account 5, 3 million Russians tourists still was a significant gift to Turkish economy and reflect its policy towards war itself. Russians also have a taste for far-flung travel, so recent exceptional increases have been recorded in countries such as Thailand, Sri Lanka, Bahrain, Cuba, the Maldives, Japan. Today, Russian foreign tourism also puts a question mark over these destinations. Rubel depreciation, money transfer problems and airline blockade paralyse travel agencies.

The war against Ukraine and the sanctions introduced for the 2022 summer season have not closed off tourism opportunities for Russians in the EU. A Russian industry analyst firm posted encouraging information for clients on its website. Despite the sanctions, the demand for travel to Europe among Russian tourists has grown. Such data was provided by the insurance company Rosgosstrakh. According to the company’s report, the demand for insurance policies to the Schengen countries grew by 7% this summer (Russtd.com 2022 ). The lack of reliable data on tourist trips of Russians to Europe for 2022 makes it impossible to show the impact of the war on this direction of tourist traffic. Although it is apparent that the EU Mediterranean countries were the destination of many Russians here Italy, Spain and Greece in particular are pointed out. Association of tour operators of Russia omits European destinations in the publicly available report, concluding ‘vacation bookings in Europe have moved into the category of "exotic". There is still a very small demand for these countries—tour operators receive applications for booking hotels and tours to Italy, France, Greece, Montenegro, Cyprus and Bulgaria’ (ATOR 27 December 2022 ).

The above statistics for 2022 do not include Russians travelling without Russian passports. The practice of acquiring so-called ‘golden visas’ for foreign investment has only intensified in 2022. A particular increase in transactions in property purchases entitling to such visas was observed in 2022 in Turkey and the AUE. In the former of these countries, $250,000 had to be invested in a property, while in the case of UAE, only $205,000 was required. This trend is bound to continue in 2023, especially when we consider the number of Russians who have left their country permanently in protest against the war, forced mobilisation and Putin’s policies Footnote 4 .

3 Tourism business in Ukraine during war period and still hope for better future

Due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, Ukrainian business has suffered greatly. The tourism industry which has been almost non-existent for the last three years is no exception although it is struggling to survive—first because of the Covid-19 pandemic, now because of the war. Flights are grounded to a halt, the sea is mined and only bus routes remain, meaning the journey to foreign resorts takes more than 24 h. Part of the territory of Ukraine is occupied or in a war zone and tourism activities are not possible there. The western and central regions act mainly as a refuge area for those Ukrainians who were forced to leave their homes as a result of the aggression of the Russian Federation.

The huge loss of Ukrainian infrastructure including from a tourism perspective especially in the Black Sea basin points to the urgent need to rebuild it after the war ended. The Ukrainian authorities are aware of this, but Western leaders are also discussing it. President Zelensky at a meeting with US business representatives called for a further exodus of Western companies from Russia while encouraging them to locate in Ukraine. Presenting proposals for international investors he pointed out concrete steps businesses can take: Hiring highly trained Ukraine-based tech workers for remote jobs; hiring Ukrainian refugees, with 5 million having fled Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion; investment in strategic growth sectors such as digitalization and green renewable energy; continuing purchases of Ukrainian exports; and aiding the rebuilding of the country’s decimated infrastructure and industrial capabilities (Sonnenfeld and Tian 2022 ).

President Zelensky realises that business needs to protect the security of investments and a stable legal system but rules out peace at any price “Ukraine is willing to put an end to this war-but not at the price of our independence”—he says. He sees the stay of Western companies in Russia as an endorsement of the Russian financial system, which prolongs the ongoing war and although he did not say so explicitly, investment preferences can be expected for those companies or their countries of registration that have passed from Ukrainian point of view the ethical test during the ordeal. With the words ‘We need to work on rebuilding Ukraine’ he indicates that he will create the conditions for the international reconstruction of the Ukrainian state.

Due to the war and the sanctions imposed on Russia tourist travel to eastern destinations has been frozen and previously popular weekend trips to Lviv, Kiev or Moscow have disappeared from the market. In the past some Ukrainians used to fly to Russia for weekends. Today this does not exist because traffic is simply frozen and all tourism in that direction is virtually non-existent. For today tourism towards Ukraine has also ceased to exist. In turn, the closure of airspace over Ukraine and Russia means that planes flying to popular eastern destinations such as Bali today have to circumnavigate the arc of these territories and make up their journey. However this is not reflected in the volume of tourist traffic in that direction. It is still believed that once the war is over and the troops are gone, tourism in Ukraine will certainly recover quite quickly. Tourists will return as soon as it is completely safe to do so.

The reconstruction of the infrastructure destroyed by the war will be a challenge of enormous proportions, which the Ukrainian state alone will not be able to cope with. The creation of an international fund for the reconstruction of the Ukrainian state should be envisaged and the selection of the beneficiaries of the contracts, assuming the defence of Ukrainian state sovereignty will be influenced by the authorities of the Ukrainian state and key donors. At the same time, there will be an opportunity to rebuild industrial infrastructure including the tourism industry. It is to be expected that leisure and tourism related industries will need capital injections in the first period of their return to the market and may offer to sell shares at an attractive price. From the perspective of a country emerging from war the invitation to foreign entrepreneurs to invest provides an incentive to engage external capital not only in the return to the market of companies located in Ukraine but also provides an element of credibility to the security of investments located here.

4 Conclusions

The consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine have already had far-reaching consequences. At the level of the invaded state it is a huge blow to the Ukrainian population (casualties—soldiers and civilians, migration) but also to the infrastructure (massive destruction) and the accompanying consequences. For the attacking Russia it has consequences that reflect the scale of violence and repression it has used and therefore also the loss of life (soldiers not civilians), the withdrawal of numerous investors and the cutting off of the inflow of Western technology (directly as some sanctions are still being circumvented).

The perpetuation of the state of war will result in a further gradual dewestarnization of the Russian economy, as well as a continued reduction in the economic activity of Western companies on Russian territory, including their further withdrawal. However, some western companies will certainly remain in this market, hoping to develop a competitive advantage for the post-war period. With a further prolongation of the war, these companies will be under pressure to choose cooperation or exit from the aggressor state with image and perhaps capital consequences.

In the dimension of tourism business a visible effect is the immediate deturistification of both countries although in different dimensions. Many Ukrainian citizens in particular have been forced to migrate leaving all their belongings behind. Some of them have fed into the European tourism business but often as low-paid workers. For Russians the war mean limitation to domestic tourism only or a shift in international tourism geographical destinations as Europe is becoming perceived as ‘exotic’. The visa suspension for Russians will limit European direction trips. Taking into account Russian brutality of military action against Ukrainians including civvies this reduction in tourist traffic can reduce the social unrest associated with ignoring the war tragedies in pro-European Ukraine.

It is unlikely that 2023 will lead to the end of hostilities, so the changes already taking place in both geopolitics and business, including tourism, may become entrenched. Russian and Western business will loosen ties and those severed will not soon recover. Russia will orient itself more towards Asian and African countries while it will withdraw economically from Europe. For the West and Europe in particular this means reorienting economies towards greater economic independence—not yet deglobalisation but certainly seeking its alternatives. The European tourism industry will follow this trend and the reduced number of tourists from Russia and its allies will likely be replaced by higher price margins for the recipients of tourist services. On the other hand the new directions of Russia’s economic activity will be linked to the search for new tourist destinations, while their direction is currently being tested and may not necessarily mean a permanent change in the tourist preferences of Russians.

It is too early to set a date for the end of war especially for the elimination of all threats to the security of the region but huge investments are expected for the reconstruction of Ukraine. The beneficiaries will obviously be the Ukrainians themselves but also to some extent the Western countries which nowadays support Ukraine financially and with equipment in its struggle for sovereignty. What shape and condition Ukraine emerges from the war may guide business investment in the region’s tourism. These will need to be accompanied by investments in ensuring the security of the Ukrainian state itself as well as individual industries and regions.

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How Russia’s war on Ukraine impacts travel and tourism

Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine, while and first and foremost a humanitarian tragedy, has caused widespread economic damage across the globe, not least in travel and tourism. Between them, Russian and Ukrainian tourists usually spend around 45 billion US dollars per year on outbound travel, much of it in the countries of emerging Europe.

Hardly had the Covid-19 pandemic abated than Russia invaded Ukraine, providing the travel and tourism sector throughout emerging Europe with yet another challenge.

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, the war will affect Europe’s tourism industry in four ways: a loss of Russian and Ukrainian tourists; restrictions on airlines and use of airspace; higher food and fuel costs; and a big hit to traveler confidence and disposable incomes.

• EU visa bans for Russian tourists: Time to follow emerging Europe’s example
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• Poland tops Emerging Europe’s first Travel Competitiveness Index

The loss of Russian and Ukrainian tourists, who spent a combined 45 billion US dollars per year prior to the Covid-19 pandemic (around eight per cent of the global total), will impact many countries in emerging Europe.

However, some regional experts also see the positive side of decreasing reliance on tourism from Russia in particular.

Loss of tourists in the Baltics?

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania could potentially also lose 10 per cent or more of their annual visitors owing to the effective ban on Russian travellers, as more and more countries in the Schengen space are choosing to stop issuing tourist visas to Russian passport-holders.

“The war in Ukraine came as we were all still recovering from the impact of the past two years and tourism numbers were not yet at pre-Covid levels,” Kadri Gröön of Visit Estonia tells Emerging Europe.

She points to a 50 per cent decrease in the number of cruise ships docking in Tallinn as a direct effect of the war. She further argues that this is not a result of fear, but because they could no longer visit St Petersburg, a key attraction for Baltic Sea cruises.

Nonetheless, she is optimistic about the future of the Estonian tourism industry.

“We have heard about the impact of the war as a reason for cancelling group trips, but we have not seen the direct impact of the war in tourism statistics. Passenger numbers have been gradually improving every month,” she says.

Regarding the cruise ships, she states that those ships that do come to Tallinn will stay longer than before. Also, more cruise ships have visited other ports than in previous years, for example Estonia’s largest island, Saaremaa.

It is a similar situation in Latvia.

“The Covid-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine have had an impact on tourism sector, reducing the number of travellers from North America, Asia, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine,” Janis Kovalevskis of the Investment and Development Agency of Latvia tells Emerging Europe .

“The war in Ukraine had an immediate impact on booking figures for the spring and summer season, especially for group segment. A large number of booked group reservations were cancelled during March and did not re-book for the summer season. According to estimates provided by the tourism sector, bookings have been cancelled at around 60 to 70 per cent. Currently, incoming tourism is mainly based on individual travellers and small tourist groups, also domestic travel, and domestic and regional corporate travel.”

She explains that in order to ameliorate the effects of the war, in close cooperation with industry stakeholders, the Latvian tourism marketing strategy has been revisited in order to redefine priority markets and products.

“Due to the geopolitical situation, a large part of our tourism marketing budget now is invested in campaigns in our target markets in Scandinavia and Western Europe. Most of the tourists come from Lithuania, Estonia, Sweden, Finland, Germany, and other European countries,” says Kovalevskis.

Loss of tourists in the Balkans?

Montenegro, which attracted wealthy Russians to its exclusive beach resorts and marinas, has also been predicted to see large drop in tourism-related income, although some Russians have still been making their way to the country through Serbia. Belgrade is one of just a handful of European airports still open to flights from Russia.

In May, the World Bank downgraded Montenegro’s 2022 economic growth forecast to 3.6 per cent from a previous 5.9 per cent, partly due to the expected drop in the number of high-spending tourists.

“Russia and Ukraine represented one of the most important markets for Montenegro as a tourist destination in the last few years, as both were among the top five countries from which the largest number of tourists came. Prior to the war tourists from Russia and Ukraine made up 15.8 per cent of foreign visitors and 21 per cent of those that stay in the country overnight,” Milena Vujović of the National Tourism Organisation of Montenegro tells Emerging Europe .

She says that the country’s tourism industry has encountered a significant change as a result of this crisis, bust still managed to have a successful tourist season by attracting tourists from the region, Western Europe, but also from Israel, Kazakhstan, as well as some new markets for Montenegro, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

“According to our data on the number of tourists since the beginning of this year, on average, we are recording a growth of 9.91 per cent compared to the same period of the pre-pandemic year 2019,” Vujović says.

The Bulgarian Black Sea was another major tourist destination for Russian and Ukrainian tourists, and Deutsche Welle Bulgaria estimates that over 350,000 Russians own property on the country’s seaside.

“In our country, the war had a detrimental effect on tourism. In January we recorded a very high number of bookings for the starting spring and summer season. During this time, we were also experiencing a rather satisfactory winter tourism season. In February, the hostilities in Ukraine started and this stopped virtually all sales,” Pavlina Ilieva, chairwoman of the Future of Tourism Organisaiton which offers independent representation of the Bulgarian tourism industry, tells Emerging Europe .

A government scheme to boost tourism and assist some of the 297,000 Ukrainian refugees that had by the end of May settled or passed through Bulgaria included payments of 20 euros per day for food and accommodation given to hoteliers which hosted over 40,000 refugees in seaside resorts.

However, according to Ilieva the lack of clarity on when the scheme will end made it difficult for those participating to take bookings.

Tourists need not be afraid

lieva further argues that some tourists remain confused over where Bulgaria is located, something that has also contributed to the low number of seaside visitors.

“Some tourists are under the wrong impression that Bulgaria shares a border with Ukraine, and this led to the cancellation of reservations from the Western market.”

Some Bulgarian tour agencies have reported receiving calls from long-term clients from western countries asking if Russian shelling of Ukraine can be heard from Bulgaria.

Kadri Gröön of Travel Estonia is also at pains to point out that currently, there is no military threat to Estonia.

“It is the same distance from Tallinn to Kyiv as it is from Berlin or Vienna. Whilst we do share a border with Russia, we are a proud northern European country, a member of the EU and NATO and just 80 kilometres across the gulf from Helsinki,” she says.

Bulgaria, Estonia, and all other eastern EU member states in-between currently have the lowest (Level 1) travel warning status issued by the US Department of State.

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Lviv targeted by hypersonic missiles & Zelensky reshuffles government - Ukraine: The Latest podcast

Today, Russia unleashes a deadly strike against the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, killing civilians and devastating parts of the historic centre, we also report on ongoing reshuffle in Ukraine’s government and analyse how Germany seems to be ‘standing in way’ of a Czech bid to limit EU travel of Russian spies

Listen to Ukraine: the Latest , The Telegraph’s daily podcast, using the audio player at the top of this article or on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , or your favourite podcast app.

War in Ukraine is reshaping our world. Every weekday The Telegraph’s top journalists analyse the invasion from all angles - military, humanitarian, political, economic, historical - and tell you what you need to know to stay updated.

With over 70 million listens, our Ukraine: The Latest podcast is your go-to source for all the latest analysis, live reaction and correspondents reporting on the ground. We have been broadcasting ever since the full-scale invasion began.

Ukraine: The Latest ’s regular contributors are:

David Knowles

David is Senior Audio Journalist & Presenter at The Telegraph , where he has worked for over three years. He has reported from across Ukraine during the full-scale invasion.

Dominic Nicholls

Dom is Associate Editor (Defence) at The Telegraph , having joined in 2018. He previously served for 23 years in the British Army, in tank and helicopter units. He had operational deployments in Iraq, Afghanistan and Northern Ireland.

Francis Dearnley

Francis is Assistant Comment Editor at The Telegraph. Prior to working as a journalist, he was chief of staff to the Chair of the Prime Minister’s Policy Board at the Houses of Parliament in London. He studied History at Cambridge University and on the podcast explores how the past shines a light on the latest diplomatic, political, and strategic developments.

They are also regularly joined by Telegraph reporters and correspondents around the world, including Joe Barnes (Brussels Correspondent), James Kilner , (Foreign Correspondent and Editor of the Central Asia & the South Caucasus Bulletin), Sophia Yan (Senior Foreign Correspondent), Roland Oliphant (Senior Foreign Correspondent), Colin Freeman (Foreign Correspondent), Danielle Sheridan (Defence Editor), and Tony Diver (US Editor).

Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 3 months with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.

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Ukraine’s foreign minister kuleba resigns as russian strikes kill 7 people in lviv.

Ukraine’s foreign minister submitted his resignation Wednesday ahead of a major government reshuffle – as a Russian airstrike took out seven people in the latest aerial assault from the Kremlin.

Dmytro Kuleba, 43, one of Kyiv’s most recognizable faces in the international stage, stepped down from his position just a day after four other Cabinet ministers handed in their resignation in the biggest government reshuffle since the war began.

Kuleba, who has served as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s most valuable advocate since the Russian invasion, did not state a reason for his departure.

In July, Kubela became the highest-ranking Ukrainian official to visit China amid the war to ask Beijing’s help to push Russia toward a cease-fire.

It remains unclear who will replace him as the Kremlin continues its steady advance in Ukraine.

Several Ukrainian outlets, citing unmanned sources, suggested Kubela’s deputy, Andril Sybiha, would take up the role as Kyiv’s chief diplomat to accompany Zelensky on his latest trip to the UN next week.

Zelensky had indicated last week that a major reshuffle of his administration was imminent as the war nears its 1,000-day mark. The Ukrainian president said Wednesday that his country needed “new energy, and that includes in diplomacy.”

Davyd Arakhamiia, a leader of Zelensky’s party in the Ukrainian parliament, said more than half the current Cabinet will undergo changes, with the new appointments expected to be announced on Thursday.

The government shakeup comes as a major Russian strike hit the city of Lviv on Wednesday, a western area far from the front-lines and near the border with NATO member Poland.

The strike killed at least seven people and injured another 52, according to Ukraine’s Rescue Service. The attack was carried out with a Kinzhal missile and drones, which targeted Kyiv’s defense industry, the Kremlin said.

Liv Mayor Andrii Sadovyi disputed the claim as he shared photos to the press of a mother and three daughters who were killed when their home was struck in the attack.

The European Youth Forum, a platform of the continent’s youth organizations, confirmed the death of the oldest daughter, Yaryna, 21.

“We will neither forget nor forgive” the attack, her colleagues said in a Facebook post.

During his last official duties as Ukraine’s foreign minister, Kuleba said Wednesday’s attack demonstrated yet again the need for the West to support his nation.

“To put an end to this terror, Ukraine’s partners must promptly deliver the promised air defense systems and ammunition, as well as strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities and allow us to launch long-range strikes on all legitimate military targets in Russia,” he wrote on X.

Wednesday’s attack took place just a day after two ballistic missiles destroyed a military academy and a nearby hospital in eastern-central Ukraine, killing 53 people and leaving nearly 300 others injured, Ukrainian officials said.

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Mongolia ignores an international warrant for Putin's arrest, giving him a red-carpet welcome

Russian President Vladimir Putin received a red-carpet welcome to Mongolia as the country ignored calls to arrest him on an international warrant for alleged war crimes stemming from Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine

ULAANBAATAR, Mongolia — Russian President Vladimir Putin received a red-carpet welcome to Mongolia on Tuesday, as the country ignored calls to arrest him on an international warrant for alleged war crimes stemming from Moscow's invasion of Ukraine .

The trip, which concluded Tuesday night, was Putin’s first to a member nation of the International Criminal Court since it issued the warrant in March 2023. Ahead of his visit, Ukraine urged Mongolia to hand Putin over to the court in The Hague, and the European Union expressed concern that Mongolia might not execute the warrant.

The warrant put the government in a difficult position. After decades under communism with close ties to the Soviet Union, it transitioned to democracy in the 1990s and built relations with the United States, Japan and other new partners. But the landlocked country remains economically dependent on its two much larger and more powerful neighbors, Russia and China.

The ICC has accused Putin of being responsible for the abductions of children from Ukraine . Member countries are required to detain suspects if a warrant has been issued, but Mongolia needs to maintain its ties with Russia and the court lacks a mechanism to enforce its warrants.

The United States doesn’t believe any country “should give Putin a platform to promote his war of aggression against Ukraine,” U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

“We understand that position that Mongolia is in, you know, sandwiched between two much larger neighbors, but we do think it’s important that they continue to support the rule of law around the world,” he told reporters in Washington.

The Russian leader was welcomed in the main square in Ulaanbaatar, the capital, by an honor guard dressed in vivid red and blue uniforms styled on those of the personal guard of 13th century ruler Genghis Khan, the founder of the Mongol Empire.

A throng of people watched from behind barriers as Putin and Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa walked up the red-carpeted steps of the Government Palace and bowed toward a statue of Genghis Khan.

A few protesters who tried to unfurl a Ukrainian flag were taken away by police. Five others who gathered a few blocks west of the square held up an anti-Putin banner and Ukrainian flag but disbanded after hearing about the arrests.

As Putin was welcomed in Mongolia, his forces struck a military training facility and nearby hospital in Poltava, Ukraine, killing at least 50 people , the country’s president said. The strike appeared to be one of the deadliest by Russian forces since the war began on Feb. 24, 2022.

The two governments signed agreements on a power plant upgrade in Ulaanbaatar and on the supply of Russian aviation fuel to Mongolia. They also agreed to carry out an environmental study of a river where Mongolia wants to build a hydroelectric plant that Russia is concerned would pollute its Lake Baikal. Putin also outlined plans to develop the rail system between the countries.

He invited the Mongolian president to a summit of the BRICS nations — which include Russia and China among others — in the Russian city of Kazan in late October. Khurelsukh accepted, according to Russian state media.

After leaving Ulaanbaatar, Putin arrived early Wednesday in Russia’s major Pacific port of Vladivostok, where he is to take part in an economic forum.

On Monday, the EU said it had shared its concerns with Mongolian authorities.

“Mongolia, like all other countries, has the right to develop its international ties according to its own interests,” European Commission spokesperson Nabila Massrali said. But she added that Mongolia has been a party to the ICC since 2002, “with the legal obligations that it entails.”

Given Mongolia’s dependence on Russia and China for trade, energy and security, it was hardly possible to expect the government to arrest Putin, said Sam Greene, the director of democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

“The overriding reason for this trip will have been to show that Putin can travel right now,” he said.

But, Greene added, the warrant narrows the circle of possibilities for Putin, forcing “any government that’s going to think about hosting him to consider both the domestic and the international political consequences of that in a way they wouldn’t have had to before.”

Kenneth Roth, the former longtime director of Human Rights Watch, called Putin’s trip to Mongolia “a sign of weakness,” posting on X that the Russian leader “could manage a trip only to a country with a tiny population of 3.4 million that lives in Russia’s shadow.”

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the trip wasn’t about “showing something to Western countries,” but rather about developing bilateral relations between two countries rooted in history and “wonderful glorious traditions.” His remarks were made to state TV reporter Pavel Zarubin, who posted them on his Telegram channel.

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, denounced the warrant as “illegal” in an online statement Tuesday.

Putin, on his first visit to Mongolia in five years, participated in a ceremony to mark the 85th anniversary of a joint Soviet and Mongolian victory over the Japanese army in deadly fighting over the border between then-Japan-controlled Manchuria and Mongolia.

“I am very delighted about Putin’s visit to Mongolia,” said Yansanjav Demdendorj, a retired economist, citing Russia’s role against Japan. “If we think of the ... battle, it’s Russians who helped free Mongolia.”

Uyanga Tsoggerel, who supports the protests, said her country is a democracy that doesn’t tolerate dictatorship and accused Putin of “recklessly humiliating and shaming Mongolia in front of the world.”

Putin has made a series of overseas trips to try to counter the international isolation he faces over the invasion of Ukraine. He visited China in May , made a trip to North Korea and Vietnam in June and went to Kazhakstan in July for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

But last year, the South African government lobbied against Putin showing up in Johannesburg for the BRICS summit, which he ended up joining by video link. South Africa, an ICC member, faced criticism in 2015 when it didn’t arrest then-Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir during a visit for an African Union summit.

Enkhgerel Seded, who studies at a university in Moscow, said that historically, countries with friendly relations don’t arrest heads-of-state on official visits.

“Our country has obligations toward the international community,” she said. “But ... I think in this case as well, it would not be appropriate to conduct an arrest.”