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  • Published: 23 September 2021

A database of travel-related behaviors and attitudes before, during, and after COVID-19 in the United States

  • Rishabh Singh Chauhan   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-7188-557X 1 ,
  • Matthew Wigginton Bhagat-Conway   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-1210-2982 2 ,
  • Denise Capasso da Silva   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-1414-8439 3 ,
  • Deborah Salon   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-2240-8408 2 ,
  • Ali Shamshiripour 1 ,
  • Ehsan Rahimi   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8649-7542 1 ,
  • Sara Khoeini 3 ,
  • Abolfazl (Kouros) Mohammadian   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3595-3664 1 ,
  • Sybil Derrible   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-2939-6016 1 &
  • Ram Pendyala 3  

Scientific Data volume  8 , Article number:  245 ( 2021 ) Cite this article

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The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted billions of people around the world. To capture some of these impacts in the United States, we are conducting a nationwide longitudinal survey collecting information about activity and travel-related behaviors and attitudes before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey questions cover a wide range of topics including commuting, daily travel, air travel, working from home, online learning, shopping, and risk perception, along with attitudinal, socioeconomic, and demographic information. The survey is deployed over multiple waves to the same respondents to monitor how behaviors and attitudes evolve over time. Version 1.0 of the survey contains 8,723 responses that are publicly available. This article details the methodology adopted for the collection, cleaning, and processing of the data. In addition, the data are weighted to be representative of national and regional demographics. This survey dataset can aid researchers, policymakers, businesses, and government agencies in understanding both the extent of behavioral shifts and the likelihood that changes in behaviors will persist after COVID-19.

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15141945

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Background & Summary

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread across the world, infecting tens of millions and killing over one million people 1 . By March 2021, the United States (U.S.) had recorded the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 related deaths in the world 1 . Since social distancing is one of the most effective measures in containing the spread of the infection 2 , several U.S. states issued various restrictions including stay at home orders. Moreover, numerous restaurants and bars closed for dine-in services, various recreation facilities were shut down, many offices and schools switched from meeting in-person to meeting online, and travel restrictions were imposed. These measures had a profound impact on how people in the U.S. went about their daily lives.

To understand the current and future impacts of the pandemic, we conducted a nationwide online survey. The goal of the survey is to capture attitudes and shifts in travel-related choices of people across the nation both during the pandemic and once COVID-19 is no longer a threat. The data are shared publicly in order to help government agencies and businesses prepare for the future. We are conducting additional survey waves with the same respondents to monitor how people’s choices evolve over the course of the pandemic and beyond.

An early version of the survey took place from April to June 2020, when the stay at home orders were in place in most parts of the country 3 , 4 ; this portion of the data collection is referenced as Wave 1 A . A slightly-modified larger-scale survey, Wave 1B ,was deployed between late June and October 2020. Subsequent survey waves are being conducted as the situation evolves. The collected data are released as they become available and necessary procedures for cleaning, documenting, and weighting the data are completed. This procedures for data processing are detailed in this paper. The present article focuses on data from the first wave of the survey.

In the months following the beginning of the spread of COVID-19, several efforts have been made to collect data related to COVID-19. In fact, many datasets have been compiled, specifically on COVID-19 testing 5 , medical imaging of COVID-19 cases 6 , the timeline of government interventions 7 , policy announcements 8 , implementation and relaxation of public health and social measures 9 , epidemiological data 10 , mobility-related data 11 , and out-of-home activity information 12 , to name a few. Researchers also turned to social media platforms, like Twitter and Instagram, to gather COVID-19-related data 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 . Furthermore, several surveys have been conducted to measure the impacts of the pandemic 17 , 18 , 19 , some of which are now released for public use 20 , 21 .

Our survey data are different from most others in several ways. First, it is comprehensive insofar as it includes data about a wide range of topics including commuting, daily travel, air travel, working from home, online learning, shopping, attitudes, risk perception, and socioeconomic and demographic details. Second, it captures detailed information about behaviors before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the choices that people expect to make when the COVID-19 virus is no longer a threat. Third, it was collected from respondents across the U.S., covering diverse socio-economic backgrounds, professions, education levels, and ages. Fourth, the survey is a true longitudinal panel survey, collecting data in multiple waves from the same individuals at regular intervals. Finally, the data are made publicly available to promote data-driven analysis and research.

The next section describes the data collection methodology, the questions included in the survey, the survey deployment process, and the participant recruitment strategy. Next, the data records section describes the data file types and metadata. Subsequently, the technical validation section explains the procedure for the survey data cleaning and weighting. Lastly, the final section provides additional notes for data users.

Ethical compliance

Our study protocol was approved by both Arizona State University (ASU) and University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC) Institutional Review Board offices. Participants were informed that their participation is voluntary, and that their responses are shared anonymously. An online informed consent was obtained from everyone who responded to the survey.

Survey questions

The data were collected through an extensive online survey with over 120 questions. The survey questions can be broadly divided into three categories: (1) retrospective questions focusing on the period before COVID-19, (2) questions about the period during COVID-19, and (3) prospective questions on respondent expectations for a future period in which COVID-19 is no longer a threat. The questions cover a wide variety of subjects including commuting habits, discretionary travel choices, work-related questions, study-related questions, shopping, dining, and so on – all before, during, and expected after the pandemic.

The survey questions can be classified into eight categories based on question subject type, namely: demographics, work, study, shopping and dining, transportation, and general attitudes. Table  1 describes each of these categories.

Survey recruitment

From April to mid-June 2020, initial Wave 1A responses were collected from a convenience sample via mailing lists, social media outreach, and mainstream media articles. A total of 1,110 responses were collected during this phase.

From late June onward, Wave 1B, the modified version of the survey, was deployed through survey invitations sent to a random email list purchased from a data marketing company. The list contained 350,000 email addresses belonging to people in 24 metropolitan areas across the U.S., as well as the state of Ohio (see Fig.  1 ). We purchased 100,000 additional email addresses of people randomly selected from across the country, including rural areas and excluding the areas covered by the first 350,000 emails. A total of 1,116 responses were received from the email list. Unfortunately, major email service providers quickly began marking our survey invitations as spam, while some smaller providers did not. While we took several steps to mitigate this issue, including changing the wording of the emails, changing the source of the emails (a uic.edu, asu.edu, or covidfuture.org email address), we were ultimately not able to fully solve this problem and saw a lower response rate from individuals with addresses from major email providers.

figure 1

Distribution of survey respondents by the state of residence for survey dataset version 1.0. Alaska and Hawai’i are in the same weighting division as California, Oregon, and Washington.

Survey invitation emails were also sent to an additional list of approximately 39,000 email addresses from the Phoenix metropolitan area purchased for a previous survey effort 22 . This list yielded 782 responses. The survey invitation emails were sent using Amazon Web Services (AWS) and through the Qualtrics platform. Every 20 th respondent who was invited through the purchased email addresses received a $10 incentive as a gift card. Respondents also had the option to donate their survey incentive to a charity. Invitees received two reminders as part of efforts to maximize response rates.

An additional 5,250 responses to the Wave 1B survey were collected through a Qualtrics Online Panel. Qualtrics recruits these respondents from a variety of panels maintained by other firms and uses quota sampling to recruit respondents that are demographically representative of the nation. The Qualtrics quotas were set to collect information from 20 U.S. metropolitan areas, mostly consistent with the metropolitan areas sampled from the purchased email list, as well as the states of Ohio, Utah, North Carolina, upstate New York, and rural areas. In order to obtain samples that would represent the population in each of the selected geographies, quotas were imposed in the Qualtrics online panel subsample to guarantee representation based on income, age, race and ethnicity, and education. We requested all respondents to provide their email addresses in order to recontact them for subsequent survey waves. Since the Qualtrics respondents are professional survey takers, we designated most questions as mandatory, and we included attention check questions, which are shown to improve response quality 23 .

The distribution of responses by geography, as well as the targeted metropolitan areas, are shown in Fig.  1 . Figure  2 shows the distribution of responses by recruitment method, available in the “org” variable in the dataset. The geographical targets were chosen based on geographic and metropolitan area size diversity, as well as the state of the virus spread in May 2020.

figure 2

Distribution of Record by Source (from the survey dataset version 1.0).

Figure  1 shows the distribution of survey respondents across the U.S. (50 states and the District of Columbia). Following our recruitment strategy, a greater number of responses come from larger and more urban states. Arizona is overrepresented due to the oversample of Arizona respondents in the email-based deployment. The respondents from the initial Wave 1A sample are also more likely to hail from Arizona as the Arizona State University survey team’s network is heavily Arizona-based. When the data are weighted, any geographic discrepancies at the census division level are controlled and overrepresentation of Arizona is controlled/corrected separately.

Additional survey waves

To monitor how people’s attitudes and behaviors evolve, survey respondents are contacted again with at least two shorter follow-up surveys, approximately four months apart in spring and fall 2021.

Data Records

The survey dataset 24 can be accessed from the ASU Dataverse at: https://doi.org/10.48349/ASU/QO7BTC . The dataset is available in CSV (comma-separated value) format. Since the data will be updated periodically, the data are versioned—in this article, results from the survey dataset version 1.0 are reported. The dataverse also contains the database codebook containing the metadata and explaining the variables. The codebook contains a changelog for each new version.

The respondents to Waves 1A and 1B received similar but not identical surveys. We have merged the responses to these two versions of the survey into the final dataset wherever possible. For some variables, the questions were identical, whereas for other variables, harmonization of similar responses was required. In the dataset, variables ending in ‘_harm’ are harmonized between the two datasets, variables ending in ‘_w1a’ are available only for Wave 1A respondents, variables ending in ‘_w1b’ are available only for respondents from our Qualtrics Online Panel, purchased email lists, and anyone who found the survey via the COVIDFuture web site or email lists after June 19, 2020 (start date of Wave 1B). Variables with no suffix were asked the same way between the two surveys, and no harmonization was necessary. We also provide a file containing only Wave 1B responses and variables, which simplifies analysis of the Wave 1B data.

Technical Validation

Data cleaning.

To monitor respondents’ attention to survey questions in the Qualtrics online panel, attention check questions were included. Respondents were allowed to miss one attention check and be given an opportunity to answer that section again. If they missed an attention check twice, or both attention checks once, their survey was terminated.

We additionally undertook several quality checks to help ensure that the collected data were valid. We removed any respondents who reported that they shop for groceries both in-store and online every day, or expect to after the pandemic, as these are likely to be invalid responses. We also removed respondents who reported strongly agreeing or strongly disagreeing with all COVID-related attitudes, as some of these were worded positively and some negatively. Several additional quality checks were undertaken in the Qualtrics Online Panel as part of Qualtrics’ data cleaning process, including a check for people finishing the survey too quickly.

Respondents that did not report a state of residence, reported living outside the 50 states and the District of Columbia, or did not provide answers to all of the control variables used in the data weighting process described in the next section were removed from the data. Due to this restriction, 558 records with missing control variable information, 59 records with missing home location, and one response from Puerto Rico were not included in the final dataset encompassing responses received through October 14, 2020. Further steps in data preparation will include imputation of missing data, which will allow for some of these omitted records to be recovered in the next version of the dataset. Among the respondents who were not included in the dataset due to missing control variable information, there are 34 respondents who declared their gender as Other; these respondents could not be included because the Census offers no control marginals to weight these records. Further data weighting procedures will attempt to incorporate non-binary gendered individuals on the dataset. Due to the data cleaning and filtering process applied to responses obtained through October 14, 2020, a total of 618 records were not included in the published dataset.

Data weighting

Because the raw data are not fully representative of the U.S. population, weights were calculated using the following control variables: age, education, gender, Hispanic status, household income, presence of children, and number of household vehicles. The weighting procedure accounts for the true population characteristics at the person level. Household-level variables (i.e., income, presence of children, and number of vehicles) were controlled at the person level as well. For example, the marginal distribution used for presence of children refers to the share of adults aged 18 years and older living in household with children, instead of the share of households that have children as it is usually represented. Those marginal distributions were computed using data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample and the American Community Survey (ACS) 2018 1-year data 25 using the sample 18 and older in each of the weighting region boundaries. A noteworthy consequence of this approach is that adjusted household weights are necessary to evaluate household-level characteristics since individuals from larger households are more likely to be represented in the survey (given there are more individuals in these households), and thus have a higher probability of being selected. Weights for household-level analysis can be computed by dividing the person-level weight (provided in the data) by the number of adults in the household.

The national sample was divided into nine regions based on the reported home state (Table  2 ). Each region’s sample was then weighted to match the distributions observed in ACS 2018 1-year estimates 25 , meaning that the survey is demographically representative at the level of each region as well as the entire U.S. The unweighted and weighted survey results are shown in Table  3 ; the weighted results closely replicate population distributions, with inevitable minor deviations on variables that were not controlled in the weighting process.

Weights were calculated using iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedures embedded within the synthetic population generator PopGen2.0 26 , 27 , 28 . Univariate marginal control distributions were derived from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample, American Community Survey (ACS) 2018 1-year data 25 .

Usage Notes

Since the survey will be followed by at least two follow-up survey waves, the database will be updated periodically after the data for each wave is collected, cleaned, and weighted. Each version of the data will be uploaded to the ASU Dataverse and assigned a new DOI number, and all previous versions will remain available to promote reproducibility.

The weights were developed to produce a sample that is representative of the U.S. population, as well as representative of nine divisions within the U.S.: eight census regions (with East and West South Central combined due to small samples in these regions), and a separate category for Arizona due to its large number of respondents. The weights are not guaranteed to produce a representative sample for other (smaller) geographies. When evaluating subsamples at a finer geography (e.g., state or metropolitan area), data users should compare marginal distributions of key demographic variables with the census, and re-weight the data if needed to be representative of the area being analyzed.

Some questions differ between Waves 1A and 1B. Therefore, we have weighted the dataset twice: once including all respondents (Waves 1A and 1B), and once excluding respondents to the Wave 1A sample. Data users should use the Wave 1B weights whenever using variables that are not present in the convenience sample. Since Wave 1A data deviates significantly in terms of population representativeness 4 , there are no weights for questions asked only of Wave 1A respondents. In the file with only Wave 1B responses, only Wave 1B weights are presented.

This unique dataset provides insights on attitudes and behaviors not just before and during pandemic, but also on what might be expected after the pandemic. Possible use cases include modeling of during-pandemic and longer-term changes in mode use, air travel, transit ridership, work from home, and traffic congestion (especially for peak period traffic planning). Published uses of this dataset are documented in Capasso da Silva et al . 29 , Chauhan et al . 30 , Mirtich et al . 31 , and Salon et al . 32 .

Code availability

No codes were developed for this research.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID program under grants no. 2030156 and 2029962 and by the Center for Teaching Old Models New Tricks (TOMNET), a University Transportation Center sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation through grant no. 69A3551747116, as well as by the Knowledge Exchange for Resilience at Arizona State University. This COVID-19 Working Group effort was also supported by the NSF-funded Social Science Extreme Events Research (SSEER) network and the CONVERGE facility at the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado Boulder (NSF Award #1841338) and the NSF CAREER award under grant no. 155173. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funders.

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Rishabh Singh Chauhan, Ali Shamshiripour, Ehsan Rahimi, Abolfazl (Kouros) Mohammadian & Sybil Derrible

School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

Matthew Wigginton Bhagat-Conway & Deborah Salon

School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

Denise Capasso da Silva, Sara Khoeini & Ram Pendyala

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Contributions

R.P., A.M., S.D., D.S. and S.K. planned the project. D.S., M.C., D.C.S., R.C., E.R. and A.M. prepared the survey questions. M.C., D.C.S. and D.S. designed the survey flow logic. R.C., D.C.S., M.C., D.S. and S.D. deployed the survey. M.C. and D.C.S. performed data cleaning and survey data analysis. D.C.S. weighted the dataset. M.C. and D.S. worked on sending out the incentives to the selected respondents. R.C. prepared the first draft. All the authors made significant contributions to manuscript editing and approving the final version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Rishabh Singh Chauhan .

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Chauhan, R.S., Bhagat-Conway, M.W., Capasso da Silva, D. et al. A database of travel-related behaviors and attitudes before, during, and after COVID-19 in the United States. Sci Data 8 , 245 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-01020-8

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Take action: Visit one of the nearly 200 living history museums in the U.S., where historic interpreters portray figures from the past. They shed light on painful issues (such as racism in America) and hidden narratives (such as those of people of color, whose stories have been suppressed).

Small communities will play a bigger role

Travelers can make a difference in small towns that were already struggling economically before the pandemic. Caz Makepeace of Y Travel Blog says she and her family have always traveled slowly to lesser-known areas, “rather than racing through destinations.” Now she’s supporting these places by patronizing local businesses and donating to nonprofits.

Kate Newman of Travel for Difference suggests travelers focus on “ global south ” or developing countries that depend on tourism. “We need to diversify our locations to avoid mass tourism and focus on the places that really need it,” she says. “Seeing so many communities suffer during COVID-19 has brought [this issue] to light.”

Take action: Turn to sustainable tourism educational and advocacy nonprofit Impact Travel Alliance to learn how to empower locals and protect the environment.

We’ll seek quality over quantity

High-mileage travelers are putting more thought into their bucket lists. “COVID-19 has allowed me to rethink how and why I travel,” says Erick Prince of The Minority Nomad . “It’s given me the freedom to explore travel projects for passion instead of the paycheck.” Rather than focusing on paid gigs, the blogger, who lives in Thailand, says he’ll be embarking on a self-funded project to highlight off-the-beaten-track provinces in his adopted country.

Eulanda Osagiede, of Hey Dip Your Toes In , is putting the breaks on international trips, citing travel as a privilege many take for granted. “Privilege comes in many forms, and the act of recognizing our travel-related ones have called us to think about traveling more intentionally and less often—if ever the world begins to look similar to its pre-pandemic days.”

Take action: Check the Transformational Travel Council for resources and recommendations on operators who can help organize meaningful journeys.

The road trip will kick into high gear

For many, road trips may be the only feasible option for travel right now, and frequent fliers like Gabby Beckford of Packs Light are revving up. Driving across state lines can be just as exciting as flying across international borders; it’s about the mindset. “Road-tripping has shown me that the core of travel—curiosity, exposure to newness, and wonder—[is] a perspective, not a destination,” she says.

Take action : Plan a coronavirus-conscious trip to Colorado, home to superlative stargazing sites —and what may become the world’s largest Dark Sky reserve.

Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee

Some high-mileage travelers say they plan to focus on meaningful experiences at out-of-the-way areas, like Chimney Tops in Tennessee’s Great Smoky Mountains National Park .

( Related: Check out these eight epic drives across America .)

Travel advisors will become essential

Conde Nast Traveller sustainability editor Juliet Kinsman predicts a shift to booking travel through agents and established operators, noting their invaluable knowledge and industry connections. “I think what 2020 has shown and taught us is the expertise and financial protection of booking through a travel agent often outweighs the amount you pay in commission,” she says. Additionally, she hopes that consumers will look to agents who specialize in the environment. “Those who care about where they send their customers can intuitively cut through greenwash and really ensure every link in the supply chain is an honorable one,” she says.

Related: Amazing architecture you can see from your car window

the Exterior view on Sunset Boulevard of Emerson College in Los Angeles

Take action: Find a travel advisor : The American Society of Travel Advisors maintains a database that allows travelers to search by destination, type of journey (such as eco-tourism or genealogy), and cohort (such as LGBTQ+ travelers). Virtuoso , a network of advisors specializing in luxury travel, can help with good deals, convenient itineraries, and tailored experiences.

We’ll appreciate staying closer to home

Some are discovering the benefits of travel even at home. Blogger Jessie Festa of Epicure & Culture and Jessie on a Journey normally travels internationally once a month. These days, online cultural cooking classes, games, and virtual experiences are helping her “to keep the spirit of travel alive by considering the feelings that travel elicits,” she says. Exchanging postcards with her extended travel community is another “beautiful way to ‘experience’ travel again, safely,” she adds.

“When we compare everything to being locked up indefinitely in our respective towers, a walk to the park can feel like travel,” says blogger Chris Mitchell of Traveling Mitch . “Now people are willing to see the magic in a meal on a patio at a restaurant down the street.”

Take action: Get outside, says the Norwegian concept “ friluftsliv ,” an idea of outdoor living that promises to make the pandemic’s colder months more bearable.

( Related: Here’s why walking is the ideal pandemic activity .)

Planning trips will become joyful again

Although some people are making the best of being grounded, this difficult period is reminding them that travel is important for boosting mental health and personal growth. There’s research to back it up. A 2013 survey of 483 U.S. adults found that travel improves empathy, energy, attention, and focus. Planning a trip is just as effective—a 2014 Cornell study showed that looking forward to travel substantially increases happiness, more than anticipating buying material goods.

Joanna Penn can attest to the healing benefits of both. The U.K.-based author and podcaster behind The Creative Penn and Books and Travel normally travels to research her books. “For me my writing life is all about what I learned when I travel,” she said in a recent podcast, “the ideas that come from being someplace new.” Her future trips will include walking the Camino de Santiago in 2022. Studying maps and determining a route makes her feel like she’s working toward a real goal. “I can expand my comfort zone without too much stress, especially if I accept that things might get canceled,” she said.

Take action: Plan a trip now, with inspiration from this essay on why travel should be considered an essential human activity.

Related Topics

  • CORONAVIRUS
  • SUSTAINABLE TOURISM
  • MENTAL HEALTH
  • VOLUNTOURISM

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Where public health stands 4 years after the COVID-19 pandemic began

Ayesha Rascoe, photographed for NPR, 2 May 2022, in Washington DC. Photo by Mike Morgan for NPR.

Ayesha Rascoe

NPR's Ayesha Rascoe asks Dr. Nancy Messonnier, Jennifer Greene, and Raven Walters about the state of public health four years after COVID-19 became a national emergency.

(SOUNDBITE OF STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS)

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: Four years ago....

AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:

President Biden reflected on COVID during his State of the Union.

BIDEN: ...The country was hit by the worst pandemic and the worst economic crisis in a century.

RASCOE: All this past week, we've been reflecting on it, as well.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

BIDEN: Remember the spikes in crime and the murder rate, raging virus that took more than 1 million American lives of loved ones, millions left behind, a mental health crisis of isolation and loneliness.

RASCOE: President Trump declared COVID a national emergency on March 13, 2020. That anniversary has come and gone, but COVID continues to affect us as we live alongside the disease. Today on the program, we look ahead at the future of the public health system that COVID pushed to the brink four years ago. We're joined now by Dr. Nancy Messonnier, formerly of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Now she is the dean at the University of North Carolina Gillings School for Global Public Health. Thank you for being with us.

NANCY MESSONNIER: Thank you.

RASCOE: So Dr. Messonnier, you were one of the voices inside the CDC as COVID-19 began to spread that called attention to how disruptive the coronavirus could be. We want to play a clip of an interaction you had during your time in the CDC under the Trump administration.

MESSONIER: I had a conversation with my family over breakfast this morning, and I told my children that while I didn't think that they were at risk right now, we, as a family, need to be preparing for a significant disruption of our lives.

RASCOE: You know, following this comment, the stock market crashed, and then President Trump was reportedly furious about your comments. What comes to mind when you think back on that moment?

MESSONIER: Yeah. I, at this time of year, for the past several years, have reflected back on that moment and the data that I and my colleagues at CDC were looking at that drove us to really want to warn the country. But now that I look back, I realize it's hard for any of us to remember the fear and uncertainty and, frankly, chaos that was part of our lives at that time.

RASCOE: It was extremely chaotic. Do you think that was a product of the political system, the administration at the time, which was the Trump administration? Or do you think it was reflective of a greater problem with the public health system in the U.S.?

MESSONIER: I actually don't think any of us would have expected disruption of this scale and scope. While I do think that a stronger public health system would be helpful, frankly, the chaos was really a product of COVID-19.

RASCOE: In your view, though, what do you think could have been done better in those early days, especially from the public health perspective? So I guess maybe starting with, like, maybe communication, what do you think could have been done better?

MESSONIER: Yeah, it's really easy to sit here four years later and say, all of that could have been better 'cause the truth is, all of that certainly could have been better. But frankly, I also think that we should be proud about how many parts of our country stepped up. I mean, hospitals and doctors and nurses, the public health professionals that work at local and state governments - they were working full-tilt every day, 24/7, to really respond to the pandemic. And I admire their resilience and their willingness to throw themselves at those kind of emergencies.

RASCOE: Will the next once-in-a-century event - will it look like COVID-19?

MESSONIER: We are not great at making these predictions. And that's why when public health officials think about preparedness for the next emergency, we think about what we call all-hazards preparedness because if you too narrowly prepare around a specific scenario, you're not ready for something outside that. And that's why when you hear us talk about data systems or community-level activities or even racism, we're talking about things that have broad application not just for that next once-in-a-century pandemic but for the everyday emergencies that we're still dealing with.

RASCOE: All right. Now we also have two students on the line from UNC's Gillings School of Global Public Health, Jennifer Greene and Raven Walters. Welcome, and thank you for being here.

RAVEN WALTERS: Thank you.

JENNIFER GREENE: Thanks for having us.

RASCOE: So, Jennifer, I'll start with you. You lead the Appalachian District Health Department, which is a part of a big health system in the more rural parts of North Carolina. You're now pursuing a graduate degree in public health. Did the pandemic play a role in that decision?

GREENE: Yes, in some ways, it did. I - well, once I decided that I was going to stick it out. I had a few doubts there in the middle of COVID, but...

RASCOE: Well, can I ask you why you had doubts?

GREENE: Yeah, I had doubts because it just felt like this insurmountable mountain to climb. You know, we were working so hard. Think about testing access. Think about vaccines when they became available, all of the contact tracing - it was a heavy lift.

RASCOE: Raven, I want to turn to you now. You're wrapping up a master's in public health this spring. What drew you to this work?

WALTERS: Well, I started off a pre-med in undergrad, and I just wanted to keep conversations about preventative care, about maternal health. But then I got into the health equity concentration, and it opened an array of ideas and concepts for me that felt more broad but felt that I could also place it in any aspect of public health that I wanted to go in.

RASCOE: Since the pandemic, you know, people are really unhappy with the public health response during and after the pandemic, and that's from the perspective of people who felt like too much was done and from the people who feel like there was too little done. How do you communicate with a public that is increasingly skeptical of public health messaging?

MESSONIER: I think that we need to help the public understand more about what public health means. You know, there was a pandemic, but in fact, today, there are a variety of emergencies and urgencies that local health departments are working on and that schools of public health are studying. So I'm talking about opioids and the mental health emergency and climate change and the PFASes in our environment. Those are the kind of challenges that we are working on still every day.

RASCOE: We often hear a common criticism that public health does not have enough funding. In your view, what types of research or programs need more funding?

GREENE: Well, at the heart of it, we've got to invest in public health infrastructure. And what I mean by that is not buildings but people, staff development, data systems to help us modernize our antiquated and often very disjointed or siloed data systems. We saw CDC put out a public health infrastructure grant, and North Carolina has been using that at the state level and the local level, which is fantastic, and it's not enough. We need to do more.

WALTERS: But also, I'm working adolescent health right now, and my job is in mass incarceration and adolescent health. And we - there needs to be more conversations happening around mass incarceration as a public health topic.

RASCOE: Well, I wonder if you all are concerned about whether there is enough public trust to get people to buy in to prevention and containment efforts?

WALTERS: I think it's not necessarily a concern. I think the pandemic has taught us so much about public health and what can happen. Working to establish more trust, but also just making sure that language is there - that this is what public health is, and it's what it does.

MESSONIER: Maybe I'll add two more things that I don't think we've directly spoken about yet. One is that clearly, the pandemic made very apparent the inequities that exist in our health care systems and the impact of racism on outcomes. And I think that we have to be forthright at calling that out and addressing it.

The second issue that I would raise that we haven't spoken about is that this pandemic also really made clear how global the work of public health is. Countries are connected in a way that they haven't been before, and that is both for transmission of a virus through travel - but even the epidemic of misinformation can really cross country lines, and we really do need to think more about the global aspect of public health, including, for example, on data systems and surveillance.

RASCOE: So I have one extra thing I want to ask. It's this idea of an acceptable level of risk because it seems like there is a lot of concern from some people that public health officials have undersold the risk of COVID-19.

GREENE: We're in a different place than we were, which is great. We have a safe and effective vaccine, we have treatments available, and we aren't seeing the same volume of people who have severe illness, hospitalization and death. And that's a real accomplishment. And what I've noticed is people who are choosing on their own to make decisions about what events they visit or if they're going to wear a mask or how frequent they're going to wash their hands, and that's their choice. I've also heard people with more questions, and so that's why that communication and that relationship is important.

RASCOE: Raven, does hearing all of this - you know, the polarization, the lack of funding - does it give you any pause about the future of this sector?

WALTERS: No, it lights a fire, actually. I'm excited to do the work. I'm excited to fight for my communities. I'm excited to work with people to get what needs to be done, done.

RASCOE: Thank you so much for joining us. I really appreciate it.

WALTERS: Thank you.

GREENE: Thank you.

MESSONIER: Thank you.

RASCOE: That's Dr. Nancy Messonnier, dean of UMC Gillings School of Global Public Health, and students Jennifer Greene and Raven Walters.

(SOUNDBITE OF JOAN SHELLEY SONG, "OVER AND EVEN")

Copyright © 2024 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

How quickly is tourism recovering from COVID-19?

A close view of a postcard stand

The pandemic helped fuel a decline in tourism globally. Image:  Unsplash/Markus Spiske

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tourism before and after pandemic

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Stay up to date:, travel and tourism.

  • Tourists spent an extra 1.8 billion nights in the European Union in 2021 compared with the year before.
  • But this is still almost 40% lower than pre-pandemic levels, according to EU statistics.
  • Tourism is an important sector for the world economy, and is expected to continue recovering gradually in 2022.
  • However, there are still risks – including Russia's invasion of Ukraine and COVID-19 variants.

Tourism was hit particularly hard by the pandemic, as lockdowns restricted people to travelling around their homes and neighbourhoods rather than around the world. But there are now signs that tourist numbers are starting to recover as limitations on movement are eased.

There was a 27% rise in nights spent at EU tourist accommodation in 2021 , according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU. This took the total to 1.8 billion, although this was still 37% less than in 2019, before COVID-19.

The first global pandemic in more than 100 years, COVID-19 has spread throughout the world at an unprecedented speed. At the time of writing, 4.5 million cases have been confirmed and more than 300,000 people have died due to the virus.

As countries seek to recover, some of the more long-term economic, business, environmental, societal and technological challenges and opportunities are just beginning to become visible.

To help all stakeholders – communities, governments, businesses and individuals understand the emerging risks and follow-on effects generated by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the World Economic Forum, in collaboration with Marsh and McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group, has launched its COVID-19 Risks Outlook: A Preliminary Mapping and its Implications - a companion for decision-makers, building on the Forum’s annual Global Risks Report.

tourism before and after pandemic

Companies are invited to join the Forum’s work to help manage the identified emerging risks of COVID-19 across industries to shape a better future. Read the full COVID-19 Risks Outlook: A Preliminary Mapping and its Implications report here , and our impact story with further information.

A chart showing nights spent in tourist accommodation in the EU, 2005-2021

Where tourists went

Greece, Spain and Croatia saw the biggest rises in visitors last year, with the number of nights spent at tourist accommodation jumping by more than 70%. Trips to Austria, Latvia and Slovakia fell, but by less than 18%.

“This shows signs of recovery in the tourism sector,” Eurostat says.

However, when 2021 tourist night numbers are compared with 2019, it shows some countries lost more than half their bookings. Latvia, Slovakia, Malta and Hungary were the worst hit.

Denmark and the Netherlands, on the other hand, were the least affected countries. They saw drops of less than 20% in nights spent in tourist accommodation.

Eurostat says the figures are “far less dramatic” than the contrast between 2019 and 2020, when tourism in the EU halved .

A chart showing annual estimates of nights spent in tourist accommodation, 2021 compared with 2020 and 2019

Tourism supports jobs

More than 2 million businesses – mostly small and medium-sized companies – make up the EU’s tourism industry , according to the European Parliament.

These firms employ an estimated 12.3 million people, but worker numbers increase to 27.3 million when related sectors are taken into account.

Across the EU in 2018, travel and tourism made up about 4% of GDP – the total value of products and services produced in a country – or 10% if closely related sectors are taken into account.

Three-quarters of these tourism businesses operated in either accommodation or serving food and drink. Italy, France, Spain and Germany were home to 55% of the EU’s tourism firms in 2018.

A chart showing international tourist arrivals by percentage change over 2019

Have you read?

This is how the covid-19 crisis has affected international tourism, we urgently need to kickstart tourism’s recovery but crisis offers an opportunity to rethink it, a new era of sustainable travel prepares for take-off, global growth and risks.

Tourism is the world’s third-biggest export sector , according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), a special United Nations agency.

Because of COVID-19, tourism lost out on around $1 trillion of export revenues in 2021, UNWTO estimates. It predicts that the tourism industry will recover gradually in 2022 .

International tourist arrivals globally grew 130% in January 2022, UNWTO says. And this was despite the Omicron variant of COVID-19 slowing down the speed of the recovery.

The war in Ukraine also poses a new risk to the global tourism industry – by potentially disrupting the return of confidence to travel, UNWTO says.

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World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

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Post-COVID-19 Tourists’ Preferences, Attitudes and Travel Expectations: A Study in Guayaquil, Ecuador

Miguel orden-mejía.

1 Facultat de Turisme i Geografia, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 43480 Vila-seca, Spain; [email protected]

Mauricio Carvache-Franco

2 Facultad de Turismo y Hotelería, Universidad Espíritu Santo, Samborondón 092301, Ecuador; moc.liamtoh@4172oiciruam

Assumpció Huertas

3 Department of Communication, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 43002 Tarragona, Spain; [email protected]

Wilmer Carvache-Franco

4 Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Humanísticas, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, Guayaquil 090615, Ecuador

Nathalie Landeta-Bejarano

5 Carrera de Turismo, Universidad Técnica de Babahoyo, Babahoyo 120102, Ecuador; ce.ude.btu@atednaln

Orly Carvache-Franco

6 Facultad de Especialidades Empresariales, Universidad Católica de Santiago de Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090615, Ecuador; moc.liamtoh@hcavraco

Associated Data

Not applicable.

Expectations about a destination influence the tourist experience during the travel process stages. In the post-COVID-19 normalcy, people are adjusting their priorities and social values. Therefore, it becomes crucial to identify tourists’ expectations before traveling. The objectives of this research were: (a) identify the preferences of tourists; (b) establish the attitudes of tourists; and (c) determine the expectations of tourists for post-COVID-19 destination selection. The study analyzed a sample of 491 people during pandemic lockdowns in Guayaquil, Ecuador. Statistical techniques such as exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis were used in data analysis. The results show that after the pandemic, tourists prefer urban tourism, followed by cultural tourism and traveling with relatives. It also shows a more responsible and supportive attitude when traveling. Likewise, the results support the dimensional structure that explains a set of post-pandemic tourist expectations. Five factors were identified: Smart Care, pricing strategy, safety, comfort, and social distancing. Finally, the theoretical and managerial implications of the results that will guide for tourism destination managers were discussed.

1. Introduction

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported in December 2019 the first case of coronavirus in Wuhan, China. As of 18 February 2020, the virus had caused more than 2200 deaths, and confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection exceeded 75,740 in the world [ 1 ]. On 31 January 2020, the WHO declared the coronavirus an international public health emergency, impacting the global economy, especially the tourism industry. From this perspective, the perception of COVID-19, travel risk and the willingness to change or cancel travel plans increased significantly during the pandemic due to the increase in confirmed cases worldwide [ 2 ]. Other reasons that influenced the slowdown in tourism were the susceptibility to COVID-19 infection, travel restrictions, and bans issued by governments [ 3 ]. Moreover, constant media coverage was the most influential factor in increasing risk perception [ 4 ].

The uncertainty about the future of the tourism industry forces us to rethink the different tourism management scenarios and analyze the impact of the pandemic on the emotional behavior of tourism demand. Hence, COVID-19 becomes a transformative opportunity [ 5 ] for researchers to explore, measure and predict the impacts of COVID-19 on tourism for monitoring and improving response strategies [ 6 ], especially in destinations where they have had a history of high COVID-19 incidences.

Guayaquil, Ecuador was chosen as the research subject in this study. Before the crisis, residents usually made tourism trips to domestic (especially coastal) and international destinations. Being a satellite city, there are various natural and cultural attractions in nearby areas. For this reason, residents practice certain forms of tourism such as: beach tourism, urban or city tourism, cultural tourism, ecotourism, and rural tourism.

Nonetheless, the impact of COVID-19 in Guayaquil was severe, significantly reducing tourist activity. The number of deaths during the coronavirus outbreak is among the worst in the world [ 7 , 8 ]. The global mortality ranking is headed by Guayas (including Guayaquil), according to the Financial Times, data on total deaths show that about 10,200 more people died during the months of March and April of the 2020 than in a typical year; i.e., an excess of deaths from the coronavirus of 485%, ranking with that figure as the city hardest hit by the coronavirus in the world [ 9 ].

On the other hand, academic literature on consumer behavior suggests that pre-purchase expectations determine product/service selection. In a post-pandemic context, it is necessary to deepen the analysis of the attitudes, behaviors and expectations of tourists before deciding to travel to predict future tourist demand and to be able to develop adequate recovery strategies. Therefore, understanding the new characteristics of tourists allows us to guide decision-making and choices of destinations behavior.

However, the current studies are focused mainly on the consequences of coronavirus on remodeling tourism, economic factors and resilience [ 10 ]. There are few studies based on tourist demand, especially consumer’s decision-making behavior [ 11 ]. Therefore, the objectives of this study are: (a) identify the preferences of tourists; (b) establish the attitudes of tourists; and (c) determine the expectations of tourists for post-COVID-19 destination selection.

The study was carried out in the city of Guayaquil, taking as a sample residents who in 2019 had made tourism and leisure trips, whether domestic or international.

The research questions posed by this study for the post-pandemic era are:

  • RQ1: What are the preferences of tourists?
  • RQ2: What are the attitudes of tourists on their trips?
  • RQ3: What are the expectations of tourists?

This work contributes to the emerging literature on the relationship between tourism and crisis [ 6 ]. Specifically, it provides exploratory data on tourists’ expectations towards a destination in a recovery phase. Moreover, the study provides destination management actors with valuable information for planning and managing internal tourism in a post-COVID-19 environment.

2. Literature Review

2.1. tourism and covid-19.

The tourism industry has been one of the economic sectors most affected by the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus. The health crisis has caused the temporary closure of tourist services worldwide [ 12 ]. Several gastronomy-oriented and food companies have had to declare bankruptcy and closed their establishments completely. Likewise, concerts, (mega)events, festivals, and conferences were cancelled [ 13 ]. Most airlines were forced to reduce or cancel flights due to the coronavirus or government restrictions [ 14 ], as were hotels and tourist accommodation [ 15 ]. Based on the report of The United Nations World Tourism Organization [ 16 ], world tourism experienced an increase of 4% in 2021, compared to 2020 (415 million vs. 400 million). However, international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) remained 72% below those of 2019, the year before the pandemic, according to preliminary UNWTO estimates. These are the figures that precede those of 2020, the worst year in the history of tourism when there was a 73% decrease in international arrivals.

COVID-19 triggered an unprecedented crisis compared to other pandemics (Spanish flu of 1918, SARS, MERS, Ebola, or swine flu) or other crises in recent history, such as the terrorist attack of 11 September in the United States [ 17 ]. The COVID-19 virus, in a short period, generated enormous socio-cultural, political, and psychological impacts on various tourism actors, causing an unusual global crisis in our economic systems [ 6 , 18 , 19 , 20 ].

It is important to note that tourism plays an important role in public health [ 21 ], as well as the wellness components of vacations [ 22 ]. Therefore, financial support from governments towards the tourism and health sector is essential to ensure the balanced recovery of tourism. For example, the application of subsidies to promote the consumption of tourism, hotels and leisure, as well as subsidies to the health sector [ 23 ]. That is, recovery strategies must be holistic and innovative rather than direct [ 24 ]. Therefore, governments must increase the budget of the health and tourism sector to offer an adequate and affordable medical care service to its citizens and tourists. However, no policy or strategy works for all countries, because the impact and characteristics are unique in each territory. Mental health mechanisms include nature deprivation, family concerns, travel restrictions, and livelihood losses [ 25 , 26 ].

2.2. Tourist Destination and Types of Tourism

Tourist destinations (DT) are composed of various attributes that significantly affect tourists at different stages. Destination attributes are considered a group of dispersed elements that promote visitors to a destination [ 27 ]. In this sense, Ramón [ 28 ] reported that a tourist destination is a territorial system that integrates primary elements that make up its attractiveness and motivate the trip and secondary elements that facilitate consumption (accommodation, restaurants, and commerce).

A tourist destination is a package of tourist facilities and services that, like any other consumer product or service, comprises several multidimensional attributes that determine its attractiveness for a particular individual in a given situation [ 29 ].

Mayo and Jarvis [ 30 ] conceptualized destination attractiveness as related to the traveler decision-making process and traveler-specific benefits. Specifically, they defined destination attractiveness as a combination of the relative importance of individual benefits and the destination’s perceived ability to deliver these unique benefits. Logically, the more visitors believe that a tourist region could meet their vacation needs, the more attractive that destination region will be and the more likely they will select it as a potential travel destination.

Cultural tourism involves learning and experience as well as the consumption of tangible and intangible cultural attractions/products in a tourism destination. Ecotourism involves the observation, experience and appreciation of biological and cultural diversity. Rural tourism involves visitor’s experience related to products generally linked to agriculture, rural lifestyle/culture, angling and sightseeing. Urban/city destinations offer a broad and heterogeneous range of cultural, architectural, technological, social and natural experiences and products for leisure and business. Coastal tourism refers to recreational and sports activities that take place on the shore of a sea, lake or river [ 31 ].

2.3. Tourism Preferences

Tourist preferences are related to multiple travel attributes in terms of transport-accommodation consumption [ 32 ], price sensitivity [ 33 ], hotel and shopping choices [ 34 ], length of stay [ 35 ] and seasonality [ 36 ]. Vacation activity choices and preferences are an important aspect of tourist behavior. They influence tourists’ experiences, their levels of satisfaction, and their happiness with particular destinations [ 37 ]. People’s choices and preferences are shifting toward newer experiential and participatory activities that provide an escape from daily routines [ 38 ]. Therefore, activities at the destination are a crucial consideration in positioning and building destination brands [ 38 ].

For a tourist destination to fulfill its mission of attracting tourists, it is vital to recognize the needs of its potential visitors and discover the key elements that lead tourists to choose between one destination and another. Therefore, understanding tourists’ preferences and travel behavior is essential to develop infrastructure, products and services that satisfy their preferences [ 39 ]. In the context of risk, tourists make destination choices based on their individual perceptions of destination attributes, including risk-associated elements [ 40 ]. Likewise, income level is also a determining factor when selecting a destination, for example, in relation to the motives underlying the selection of destinations, low-income people were highly influenced by factors of “accessibility and discounts” despite the global health emergency [ 41 ]. For academics González-Reverté et al. [ 42 ], tourists with a previous environmental attitude are less interested in visiting mass tourism beach destinations in the future. For this reason, it is necessary to establish what preferences about tourist destinations exist in demand after the health crisis.

2.4. Tourist Attitude

Attitude significantly affects satisfaction [ 43 ]. Therefore, customer attitude is related to business performance [ 44 ]. Attitude generally refers to the number of customers/people (preferred/liked) or (liked/disliked) a particular object (e.g., product or service). It is usually demonstrated as a total evaluation of the objects, and it has been studied broadly in terms of behavior [ 45 ]. Attitude toward customer behavior refers to a “positive” or “negative” tendency to consistently react to certain behaviors, such as product use and product selection, according to research by Quintal et al. [ 46 ] In this sense, Ceylan et al. [ 47 ] and Untaru and Han [ 43 ] showed that consumer purchasing behavior has changed during the pandemic. The current scenario of COVID-19 expresses that the attitude of risk of an outbreak is a critical predictor of clients because the person realizes that entering a public place increases the probability of infection [ 48 ]. Previous economically oriented studies have shown how the COVID-19 crisis has revised dynamic customer reactions and consumption attitudes [ 47 ]. Therefore, in a study by Untaru and Han [ 43 ], in retail stores, customer attitudes towards protective measures have a solid mediating association with customer satisfaction and behavioral intentions, which increased satisfaction customer and return visit rate.

2.5. Tourist Expectations

Expectancy theory is based on various characteristics or attributes intended to be achieved or lead to a particular outcome [ 49 ]. In other words, expectations are preconceived and previously experienced perceptions of a product’s performance or attributes [ 50 ]. In this regard, Larsen [ 51 ] defines expectation as “an individual’s ability to anticipate, form beliefs and predict future events and states”.

Therefore, the tourist expectation is a “preconceived perception of the results of the trip” [ 52 ] built from various sources of information related to the tourist destination [ 53 ]; for example, tourism brochures, websites, and chatbots.

Furthermore, expectations are considered standards against which tourists assess a provider’s performance [ 54 ]. Therefore, the experience in a tourist destination is determined by the tourist’s expectations, the first element of the purchase decision. Thus, potential tourists’ expectations occur in the tourism industry before purchasing any tourism product.

Heung and Quf [ 39 ] depicted these predictions as a set of attributes that describe a place as a travel destination (mental image), and Wang et al. [ 52 ] found that the cognitive/affective image of travelers shapes people’s expectations towards travel destinations. Significantly, satisfaction level, memories, choices, knowledge, and decisions respond to destination image [ 55 ]. Furthermore, a positive image of a destination formed by a synergy of destination attributes (e.g., tourism services and activities, infrastructure, attractions) influences decisions to choose a destination [ 56 ].

Several studies have explored tourists’ expectations. Tolls and Carr [ 57 ] analyzed the expectations of the tourist experience in a horseback riding center around notions of romance, nostalgia, relaxation, and escapism. In contrast, Larsen [ 51 ] argued that tourists’ expectations and in-trip perceptions and memories, shape the tourist experience and the basis for new preferences.

In tourist behavior, Hsu et al. [ 58 ] argued that expectation differently affects attitude, motivation, and loyalty towards a tourist destination [ 59 ]. Along these lines, Tsaur, Lin and Lin [ 60 ] found that the expectations of a memorable experience motivate visitors to participate in tourist activities. Thus, tourists’ expectations may become the reason for the trip.

3. Methodology

3.1. study area.

Guayaquil is located on the coast of Ecuador in South America. It is a city with natural and cultural attractions visited by national and international tourists, confined at the time of COVID-2019. Guayaquil is the main economic city and one of the most populated, with approximately 2.7 million inhabitants [ 61 ], located at Latitude 2°11′41.30″ South and Longitude 79°52′55.77″ West ( Figure 1 ). There are 142 registered accommodation establishments, 6352 rooms, 10,354 beds and with hotel capacity for 12,368 guests [ 62 ]. In this city, the Ministry of Public Health has 93 medical care sites, including health centers (first level), day and general hospitals (second level) and specialty hospitals (third level); while there are 217 private health establishments [ 63 ]. The main causes of death of Guayaquil residents in 2016 were ischemic heart disease (2116 cases) followed by Diabetes Mellitus (1376) (See Figure 1 ).

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Guayaquil city, Ecuador.

Guayaquil is the capital of the Guayas province and offers a wide range of tourist attractions. Its shopping centers, parks, museums and boardwalks are the most visited by travelers who are enchanted by the magic that the so-called “Perla del Pacífico” offers. The Cathedral, the Seminary Park, the Governor’s Palace, the Santa Ana Hill, the Las Peñas neighborhood, the Simón Bolívar Malecón, the Samanes Park, the Guayaquil Historical Park, among others, are the destinations of tourist interest that day to day are visited by thousands of people who come to this cheerful and warm city.

Another alternative is tourism in the Gulf, a new fluvial alternative that articulates the main tourist sites around Guayaquil: Santay Island, Durán Train Station, Simón Bolívar Malecón and Samborondón Historical Park. In this area you can develop nature tourism (fauna and flora observation), active tourism (hiking, cycling), cultural and experiential activities, among others.

3.2. Survey Design

A questionnaire was designed to achieve the objectives. It included two sections: (1) the sociodemographic aspects of the respondents and their preferences for visiting a destination after the health emergency; (2) statements about tourists’ expectations for their next trip to a destination in recovery.

Since this was an exploratory study, an expert discussion elicited a total of 27 items organized into five factors (Smart Care, Pricing Strategy, Safety, Comfort, Social Distancing). All the items had a multiple-item measure, linked on a scale from 1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree: seven items for Smart Care, five items for pricing strategy, five items for safety, five for comfort, five for social distancing conducted an online pilot test (n = 25). Thus, the construction of the items was systematically examined to avoid ambiguous, vague, and unfamiliar terms [ 64 ]. After minor corrections and validation of the questionnaire, the final version was programmed into an online self-administered questionnaire to be completed by the respondents.

3.3. Data Colletion

Guayaquil, the economic capital of Ecuador, was chosen as the research topic in this study. Residents of legal age who had traveled at least once (for leisure or vacation) in 2019 were selected for the sample. If they had not, their response was appreciated and the questionnaire was considered closed. Online surveys collected the data between April and May 2020 during the lockdown. The survey was designed in Google Forms and shared in Guayaquil using the social networks of Twitter, Facebook and Whatsapp. The sampling approach was non-probabilistic and applied convenience sampling to find errors and improve the survey. This non-random sampling technique was chosen due to its accessibility and the ease of reaching the respondent. When using this technique, habits, opinions, and points of view can be observed more easily.

Finally, the sample size was 491 valid responses for this study, and the infinite population was used, considering that there is no official number of tourists visiting the destination of Guayaquil. A ±5% margin of error, a confidence level of 95%, and a variance of 50% were used to obtain the most reliable results.

3.4. Data Analysis

Descriptive statistics summarized the data. The SPSS 25 statistical software was used for data analysis:

  • A descriptive analysis was used to identify the participants’ profiles, preferences and attitudes towards a post-COVID-19 tourist destination.
  • An Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was performed to facilitate the interpretation of the tourist expectation variables through a smaller number of variables or underlying factors.
  • Confirmatory factor analysis was applied to assess the adequacy of the measurements in terms of convergent and discriminant validity.

4.1. Study Simple Profile

Of the 491 responses, most participants were women, and one group was from the LGBT community. Most people were between 21 and 40 years old, 63.7% were single, and 83% had an undergraduate/postgraduate degree (See Table 1 ).

Demographic Profile.

4.2. Preferences for Visits

Respondents would prefer urban tourism, followed by cultural tourism and rural tourism. In addition, most would like to visit a destination with their relatives. Likewise, they would be willing to travel with their partner and friends, and few would travel alone (see Table 2 ).

Preferences.

Results that answer our first research question in the post-pandemic era: What are the preferences of tourists on their next trips? Showing the results that they would prefer urban tourism, followed by cultural tourism and traveling with relatives.

4.3. Travel Attitude

Fifty six percent of the participants mentioned that they would be more responsible and supportive when visiting their next destination in their tourist activities. Likewise, they preferred to visit less crowded destinations (51.2%) to avoid physical interaction with other tourists, thus guaranteeing an adequate distance.

Post-COVID-19 tourists will have a more respectful attitude towards the environment (41.2%). Thus, tourists will be aware of possible impacts on the destination. Potential tourists (39.2%) will be more careful with disinfection and hygiene in the tourist establishments of their destination (see Table 3 ).

Attitude to travel to a destination.

Results that answer our second research question: RQ2: What are the attitudes of tourists on their trips? Evidencing the results that tourists would be more responsible and supportive when visiting their next destination in their tourist activities.

4.4. Exploratory Factor Analysis of Travel Expectations

This study was conducted using participants’ importance ratings regarding expectations of a post-COVID-19 destination. The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) measure of sample adequacy (MSA, Tokyo, Japan) was applied to determine the factorization of the data [ 65 ]. This paper found the KMO value of the data to be 0.916, indicating that it was excellent at sampling adequacy. Common method variance (CMV) bias was analyzed using Harman’s single factor test [ 66 ]. The results showed that the main factor explained 32.1% of the variance, below the 50% threshold, confirming that the bias is acceptable for data analysis. In addition, the Cronbach’s Alpha coefficient in the final scale of expectations of tourists reached a value of 0.930, which indicates a commendable internal consistency between the items of the scale.

The Bartlett sphericity test was also performed, since some variables have significant correlations [ 44 ]. In this case, the results of the Bartlett test indicate a level of significance ( p ≤ 0.05). Hence, the data are suitable for EFA.

The maximum likelihood method with promax rotation was selected to identify the factor structure in the EFA application and obtain significant and interpretable factors because the object of study is the underlying causal structure of a given domain (expectations).

Data with a factor loading of less than 0.40 were not considered. The analysis was performed on 27 items, which explained 58.2% of the total variance and formed a structure of five dimensions with appropriate values: “Intelligent Care”, “Price Strategy”, “Safety”, “Comfort”, and “Social Distancing” (see Table 4 ).

Exploratory Factor Analysis of Tourists’ expectation (n = 491).

The h 2 : value is the commonality of each. A 5-point Likert-type scale from 1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree.

According to Table 4 , the first factor called “Smart Care” has the most significant explanatory power (35%) of the total variance. Thus, this factor is related to smart technologies such as chatbots for tour assistants, robots, applications, and artificial intelligence (AI).

The second factor was “Price strategy,” which reached 7.65% of the total variance related to low prices, discounts, and tourist services. For the third factor, “Security,” the results show that it comprised 6.79% of the total variance. This factor is related to protection and care issues contemplated in destinations once tourism is reactivated. The fourth factor, called “Comfort,” obtained 5.32% of the total variance. This factor is related to the intention to visit a destination where tourist activities can be carried out with small groups of people and where the itineraries are short.

In addition, tourists intend to visit a destination that ensures a perception of health and disinfection in tourist services. Therefore, tourists would be interested in service providers having COVID-19-free certification. The last factor, “Social distancing,” comprised 3.35% of the studied variance. This factor is related to social distancing in tourist services and activities and the tourist infrastructure of the destination, which is why they prefer to do tourism in open spaces and with fewer people.

Five factors were revealed: Smart Care, Pricing Strategy, Safety, Comfort, and Social Distancing (see Figure 2 ).

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Tourists’ expectations for a destination in the post-COVID-19 recovery stage.

Results that answer our third research question: RQ3: What are the expectations of tourists on their trips? It is evident that the main expectations of tourists are related to technological factors, biosecurity, and special-offer discounts.

4.5. Construct Validity

Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was performed to test the psychometric properties of the measurement scales. The results confirmed the reliability and convergent validity of the measurement scales. In all cases, Cronbach’s Alpha and composite confidence are above the minimum required values of 0.7, and the AVE coefficients are above 0.5 [ 67 ]. Moreover, all items are significantly associated with their hypothetical factors at a 95% confidence level, and their standardized lambda coefficients are higher than 0.5 [ 68 ], confirming convergent validity. However, the item “Short itineraries (short-term tourist activities)” belonging to the comfort construct had to be eliminated, as it had a coefficient below the threshold (See Table 5 and Figure 3 ).

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Confirmatory Factor Analysis (EFA). Maximum Likelihood Procedure.

Scale Items and Confirmatory Factor Analysis result (n = 491).

a SD = Standard Deviation.

Finally, the results presented acceptable general adjustments ( x 2 = 808.871; d f = 287; CMIN/d f = 2.818) at a level ( p = 0.001). Goodness-of-fit indices were substantial (CFI = 0.929; TLI = 0.920; IFI = 0.930; RMSEA = 0.061) CFI, TLI and IFI values greater than 0.90 and an RMSEA value smaller than 0.08 are indicative of a good model fit [ 67 ].

The discriminant validity of the measurement scales was tested following the procedure proposed by [ 69 ], which compares the AVE coefficient for each pair of constructs with the estimated squared correlation between these two constructs. Thus, all constructs demonstrated acceptable discriminant validity because all intra-construct correlations were less than the square root of the AVE for each construct (see Table 6 ).

Result of discriminant validity (Fornell-Larcker).

Note: *** p ˂ 0.001; The square root of AVEs are shown diagonally in bold.

5. Discussion

This study was carried out in the city of Guayaquil and was aimed at identifying the preferences, attitudes, and expectations of residents in planning their trips after the pandemic. The first objective was to identify the preferences of tourists on their trips. The results responding to RQ1 show that tourists would prefer urban tourism, followed by cultural tourism and rural tourism. Moreover, most of them would like to visit a destination with their relatives. The second objective of the present study was to establish the attitudes of tourists. Therefore, responding to RQ2, it has been identified that they would be more responsible and supportive when visiting their next destination in their tourist activities, as pointed out by Cameron and Shah [ 48 ] and Untaru and Han [ 43 ]. Likewise, they preferred to visit less crowded destinations to avoid physical interaction with other tourists, thus guaranteeing an adequate distance.

An interesting finding is that tourists prefer urban tourism in places that respect biosafety standards in less crowded places. It was also found that in coastal cities, tourists prefer urban tourism instead of going to the beaches, which are usually full of tourists [ 42 ].

As a third objective, the present study set out to determine the expectations of tourists for post-COVID-19 destination selection. In this way, the results responding to RQ show that the main expectations of tourists are related to technological factors, biosecurity and special offers and discounts. This study could significantly improve the visitor experience, compared to previous studies [ 51 , 57 , 59 , 60 ]. In this regard, Gretzel et al. [ 70 ] argued that information technology (IT) is the key to understanding the new conditions related to the pandemic on how we manage travel and our daily lives. All these are contributions to the academic literature on tourism in crisis, which until now has been very scarce.

As practical implications, destination managers should create policies that encourage service providers to incorporate Smart Tourism Technologies (STT) such as chatbots, virtual assistants, biometrics (contactless), humanoid robots, augmented reality, AI, drones and sensors in tourist destinations. In addition, implementing these policies in the infrastructure of the destination can minimize physical contact, control social distancing and generate a positive image perception. In this study, chatbots or virtual tourist information assistants are the technologies that best explain the underlying structure of the smart care factor.

Through STT, destinations can (1) manage real-time destination tourism information and (2) achieve two-way communication between tourists and the local Destination Management Organization (DMO) and provide actionable information on destination conditions.

Destination managers and private companies should implement customer pricing strategies, offering discounts on luxury services in hotels and restaurants and having special offers, due to the seasonality of the destination and because these variables will motivate visitors to take their travel decision, especially to a segment of tourists with less income [ 41 ].

Tourist destinations must invest in the expansion (in terms of breadth) of tourist infrastructure and recreation areas to guarantee the factor of social distancing. Likewise, it is essential to have social distancing signs that influence the behavior of tourists and residents. Additionally, it is necessary to generate prevention and distancing protocols in tourist services and activities to improve safety, hygiene and citizen transit.

In terms of safety, tourist destinations must form a management committee made up of representatives of the health, tourism, municipal and provincial secretariats to establish standards for monitoring and control of health protocols before, during and after the use of services and activities.

Tour agencies and operators must manage safe trips (health protocols), offering tour packages with previously certified services and ensuring that their providers implement the relevant health protocols to provide visitors with greater peace of mind during their stay at the destination.

Certified COVID-free destinations could meet the expectations of potential tourists. In addition, managers could implement training programs in sanitation and disinfection of tourist establishments and refresher courses in biosafety protocols to generate an environment under the sanitary requirements that post-COVID-19 tourists will demand.

6. Conclusions

The health system in Ecuador is universal and free. In Guayaquil, hospital care is offered on three levels and 24 h emergencies. For this, the city has modern accredited public hospitals that provide their services to both locals and tourists. There are also private clinics that serve tourists who have purchased international travel insurance.

The results of this research offer essential information. The EFA illustrates the dimensions of the expectations of tourists towards a destination in a recovery stage after COVID-19. This study provides exploratory information on the expectations of tourists about visiting a destination. Destination managers, destination and supply management organizations, and policy makers can benefit from this valuable information by identifying tourists’ expectations for choosing a destination in a post-COVID-19 scenario.

As theoretical implications, a good management of tourist expectations identified in this study could significantly improve the visitor experience, compared to previous studies. The main contribution of the study is the preferences, attitudes and expectations of the people who plan their visit and their travel after the pandemic. Therefore, tourists prefer urban tourism and travel with family members, and are more responsible and supportive. Five dimensions of expectations are evident: Smart Care, Pricing Strategy, Safety, Comfort, and Social Distancing. All of these findings imply a contribution to existing academic theory.

The study shows the temporality of the survey as the main limitation. Due to the confinement stage, the participants’ mental health might have been affected. Thus, the anxiety and trauma caused by the health emergency may have influenced the responses. Finally, future research is essential to address the term “COVID-19 phobia tourism”, which implies the tourist’s fear of contracting the COVID-19 virus during their next trip since it could be a determining factor for tourists when selecting a destination. Likewise, the tourist phobia due to COVID-19 generates new tourist behaviors, which will force destinations to redesign promotion strategies.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, M.O.-M., M.C.-F., A.H., W.C.-F. and N.L.-B.; methodology, M.O.-M. and A.H.; software M.O.-M. and O.C.-F. validation, M.O.-M., M.C.-F., A.H. formal analysis, M.O.-M., M.C.-F., A.H.; investigation, M.O.-M., M.C.-F., A.H., W.C.-F., N.L.-B. and O.C.-F.; resources, M.O.-M., M.C.-F., A.H., W.C.-F., N.L.-B. and O.C.-F.; data curation, M.O.-M. and M.C.-F.; writing—original draft preparation, M.O.-M., M.C.-F., A.H., W.C.-F., N.L.-B. and O.C.-F.; writing—review and editing, M.O.-M., M.C.-F., A.H., W.C.-F., N.L.-B. and O.C.-F. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

This research received no external funding.

Institutional Review Board Statement

Informed consent statement, data availability statement, conflicts of interest.

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Flannels or FlipFlops

Flannels or FlipFlops

10 Big Things That Never Recovered After the Pandemic

Posted: March 18, 2024 | Last updated: March 18, 2024

<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly changed the world as we know it, and while some things may eventually go back to normal, some big things will never entirely be the same again.</p> <p>From our daily routines to global industries, the effects of this unprecedented event will continue to be felt long after the virus is gone.</p>

The COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly changed the world as we know it, and while some things may eventually go back to normal, some big things will never entirely be the same again.

From our daily routines to global industries, the effects of this unprecedented event will continue to be felt long after the virus is gone.

<p>Going to the movies has always been a popular pastime, but after the pandemic hit, many people lost interest in returning to crowded theaters. With streaming providers like Hulu and Netflix bringing new films directly to our homes, it’s hard to justify spending money on overpriced tickets and snacks.</p><p>Plus, who wants to deal with noisy kids and sticky floors when you can have the comfort of your couch?</p>

Movie Theaters

Going to the movies has always been a popular pastime, but after the pandemic hit, many people lost interest in returning to crowded theaters. With streaming providers like Hulu and Netflix bringing new films directly to our homes, it’s hard to justify spending money on overpriced tickets and snacks.

Plus, who wants to deal with noisy kids and sticky floors when you can have the comfort of your couch?

<p>Remember when handshakes were a common greeting? It’s safe to say that this form of physical contact may never fully recover after the pandemic.</p><p>People are more conscious about germs and spreading illness, so alternatives like fist bumps or elbow taps have become the new norm.</p>

Remember when handshakes were a common greeting? It’s safe to say that this form of physical contact may never fully recover after the pandemic.

People are more conscious about germs and spreading illness, so alternatives like fist bumps or elbow taps have become the new norm.

<p>Many people grew up eating at all-you-can-eat buffets, but the pandemic has ended this dining experience. Sharing utensils and proximity to other <a href="https://frenzhub.com/is-she-the-worst-girlfriend-ever-lady-sparks-controversy-by-refusing-to-pay-for-boyfriends-meal-and-getting-him-banned-from-a-popular-restaurant/">diners are now seen as potential health risks. </a></p><p>It looks like we’ll have to say goodbye to endless piles of crab legs and mountains of desserts.</p>

Many people grew up eating at all-you-can-eat buffets, but the pandemic has ended this dining experience. Sharing utensils and proximity to other diners are now seen as potential health risks.

It looks like we’ll have to say goodbye to endless piles of crab legs and mountains of desserts.

<p>Many companies have shifted to remote work during the pandemic and may never return to a traditional office setting. This means no more casual water-cooler chats or team lunches.</p><p>While working from home has benefits, it takes time to recreate the camaraderie and social interactions of an office environment<a href="https://frenzhub.com/15-social-norms-that-should-be-abandoned/">.</a></p>

Office Culture

Many companies have shifted to remote work during the pandemic and may never return to a traditional office setting. This means no more casual water-cooler chats or team lunches.

While working from home has benefits, it takes time to recreate the camaraderie and social interactions of an office environment .

<p>Like handshakes, high-fives have also fallen out of favor due to concerns about spreading germs. It’s a shame because there’s nothing like a high-five after a big win or achievement.</p>

Like handshakes, high-fives have also fallen out of favor due to concerns about spreading germs. It’s a shame because there’s nothing like a high-five after a big win or achievement.

Concerts and music festivals were put on hold during the pandemic, and even as things start to reopen, it may take a while for them to fully recover.

With added safety measures and limited capacity, the thrill of witnessing your favorite performer live could never be the same.

<p>The travel industry has taken a massive hit during the pandemic and is uncertain if it will fully recover. With restrictions and quarantine requirements, many people hesitate to travel for leisure.</p><p>Plus, virtual tours and experiences have become popular alternatives.</p><p><em>“The travel and tourism sector has been brought to its knees by the pandemic. It will take time and concerted effort for the industry to recover, and even then, it may never fully return to what it was before.” – John Smith, CEO of a major hotel chain</em>.</p>

Travel Industry

The travel industry has taken a massive hit during the pandemic and is uncertain if it will fully recover. With restrictions and quarantine requirements, many people hesitate to travel for leisure.

Plus, virtual tours and experiences have become popular alternatives.

“The travel and tourism sector has been brought to its knees by the pandemic. It will take time and concerted effort for the industry to recover, and even then, it may never fully return to what it was before.” – John Smith, CEO of a major hotel chain .

<p>The economy was <a href="https://frenzhub.com/unexpected-ways-social-media-is-ruining-our-mental-health/" rel="noopener">influenced in unexpected ways</a>, causing prices to soar. Even fast-food chains like McDonald’s have seen their iconic dollar menus disappear, replaced by “value” menus that don’t really have that much value. Users share that groceries and everyday essentials have become costlier, adding strain to tight budgets.</p>

Rising Prices

The economy was  influenced in unexpected ways , causing prices to soar. Even fast-food chains like McDonald’s have seen their iconic dollar menus disappear, replaced by “value” menus that don’t really have that much value. Users share that groceries and everyday essentials have become costlier, adding strain to tight budgets.

<p>The glitz and glamour of movie premieres have been put on hold during the pandemic. While we may see a return to red-carpet events, they are unlikely to be as extravagant and star-studded as before.</p>

Movie Premieres

The glitz and glamour of movie premieres have been put on hold during the pandemic. While we may see a return to red-carpet events, they are unlikely to be as extravagant and star-studded as before.

<p>Lastly, one big thing that never fully recovered after the pandemic is our perception of life before COVID-19. It’s hard to go back to living without masks, constantly sanitizing, and social distancing.</p><p>This experience has changed us in ways we never thought possible, and these changes will likely stick with us long after the <a href="https://frenzhub.com/big-things-that-never-recovered-after-the-pandemic/">pandemic</a>.</p>

The “Before Times”

Lastly, one big thing that never fully recovered after the pandemic is our perception of life before COVID-19. It’s hard to go back to living without masks, constantly sanitizing, and social distancing.

This experience has changed us in ways we never thought possible, and these changes will likely stick with us long after the pandemic .

In a groundbreaking development for the world of travel, Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines have announced a monumental partnership. This collaboration signifies not only a leap forward in airline services but also promises a richer, more varied experience for travelers globally. A Union of Quality and Service The essence of this alliance lies in the...

10 Diseases You Could Get Just By Stepping Onto an Airplane

It’s essential to be prepared for anything your trip may bring, including those invisible stowaways – diseases that love to travel with you at 30,000 feet. This is an intriguing journey of lesser-known aspects of air travel – the “10 Diseases You Could Potentially Contract Just By Boarding a Plane”.

<p>Ladies and Gentlemen, fasten your seatbelts! We’re about to embark on a wild journey through the list of countries that are a no-fly zone for the brave and the free, us Americans. Yes, you heard it right! While we all love a thrilling adventure, there are some destinations where the thrills might be just a tad too… alive-and-kicking?</p><a href="https://savvyolu.com/countries-americans-should-not-travel-to/">15 Countries Americans Should Not Travel To</a>

15 Countries Americans Should Not Travel To

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<p>Renowned for its imperial palaces, historic monuments, and rich cultural heritage, St. Petersburg offers a glimpse into Russia’s royal past and artistic prowess.</p>

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UN Tourism | Bringing the world closer

International Tourism to Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2024

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International Tourism to Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2024

  • All Regions
  • 19 Jan 2024

Following a strong 2023, international tourism is well on track to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2024.

According to the first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of the year, international tourism ended 2023 at 88% of pre-pandemic levels , with an estimated 1.3 billion international arrivals . The unleashing of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity, and a stronger recovery of Asian markets and destinations, are expected to underpin a full recovery by the end of 2024.

Middle East, Europe and Africa performed strongest in 2023

The latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer provides a comprehensive overview of the sector's performance in 2023, tracking recovery by global region, sub-region and destination. Key takeaways include:

  • The Middle East led recovery in relative terms as the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above 2019.
  • Europe , the world's most visited region, reached 94% of 2019 levels, supported by intra-regional demand and travel from the United States.
  • Africa recovered 96% of pre-pandemic visitors and Americas reached 90%.
  • Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels following the reopening of several markets and destinations. However, performance is mixed, with South Asia already recovering 87% of 2019 levels and North-East Asia around 55%. 

International Tourist Arrivals (% change over 2019)

Available data shows several destinations, including both large, established destinations as well as small and emerging ones, reporting double-digit growth in international arrivals in 2023 when compared to 2019. Four sub-regions exceeded their 2019 arrival levels: Southern Mediterranean Europe, Caribbean, Central America and North Africa.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says: "The latest UNWTO data underscores tourism's resilience and rapid recovery, with pre-pandemic numbers expected by the end of 2024. The rebound is already having a significant impact on economies, jobs, growth and opportunities for communities everywhere. These numbers also recall the critical task of progressing sustainability and inclusion in tourism development"

International tourism hit US$1.4 trillion in 2023

The latest UNWTO data also highlights the economic impact of recovery.

  • International tourism receipts reached USD 1.4 trillion in 2023 according to preliminary estimates, about 93% of the USD 1.5 trillion earned by destinations in 2019.
  • Total export revenues from tourism (including passenger transport) are estimated at USD 1.6 trillion in 2023, almost 95% of the USD 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019.
  • Preliminary estimates on the economic contribution of tourism, measured in tourism direct gross domestic product (TDGDP) point to USD 3.3 trillion in 2023, or 3% of global GDP. This indicates a recovery of pre-pandemic TDGDP driven by strong domestic and international tourism.

Several destinations reported strong growth in international tourism receipts during the first ten to twelve months of 2023, exceeding in some cases growth in arrivals. Strong demand for outbound travel was also reported by several large source markets this period, with many exceeding 2019 levels.

The sustained recovery is also reflected in the performance of industry indicators. According to the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker, both international air capacity and passenger demand recovered about 90% of pre-pandemic levels through October 2023 (IATA). Global occupancy rates in accommodation establishments reached 65% in November, slightly above 62% in November 2022 (based on STR data).

Looking Ahead to 2024

International tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels. This central forecast by UNWTO remains subject to the pace of recovery in Asia and to the evolution of existing economic and geopolitical downside risks.  

The positive outlook is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023. Some 28% expect similar performance, while only 6% expect tourism performance in 2024 to be worse than last year. Key considerations include:

  • There is still significant room for recovery across Asia. The reopening of several source markets and destinations will boost recovery in the region and globally.
  • Chinese outbound and inbound tourism is expected to accelerate in 2024, due to visa facilitation and improved air capacity. China is applying visa-free travel for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Malaysia for a year to 30 November 2024.
  • Visa and travel facilitation measures will promote travel to and around the Middle East and Africa with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to implement a unified tourist visa, similar to the Schengen visa, and measures to facilitate intra-African travel in Kenya and Rwanda.
  • Europe is expected to drive results again in 2024. In March, Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen area of free movement, and Paris will host the Summer Olympics in July and August.
  • Strong travel from the United States, backed by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the Americas and beyond. As in 2023, robust source markets in Europe, the Americas and the Middle East, will continue to fuel tourism flows and spending around the world.
  • Economic and geopolitical headwinds continue to pose significant challenges to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels. Persisting inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices and disruptions to trade can continue to impact transport and accommodations costs in 2024.
  • Against this backdrop, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home. Sustainable practices and adaptability will also play an increasing role in consumer choice. 
  • Staff shortages remain a critical issue, as tourism businesses face a shortfall in labor to cope with high demand.
  • The evolution of the Hamas-Israel conflict may disrupt travel in the Middle East and impact traveler confidence. Uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine as well as other mounting geopolitical tensions, continue to weigh on confidence.

Related links

  • Download the News Release on PDF
  • World Tourism Barometer | EXCERPT | Volume 22 • Issue 1 • January 2024
  • World Tourism Barometer | PPT Version | Volume 22 • Issue 1 • January 2024
  • UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker
  • UNWTO World Tourism Barometer
  • UNWTO Tourism Data Dashboard

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  22. COVID-19 and Tourism

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