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What We Can Learn: Team Red Zone Stats & Production

Daniel Jones throws pass against Eagles

As we push into July and further downhill toward  the 2023 fantasy season , we are extending our top-down approach that began with a look at the state of leaguewide production and usage at each skill position for fantasy by looking at team performance and output.

The goal is that by late August we have covered all corners of the fantasy earth from a team, player, position, and game theory stance to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for this upcoming season.

We opened things up with a look at how the league and teams performed on a per-possession basis a year ago and followed up with a look at how good or bad teams were converting yardage into touchdowns .

Now we are digging into how good teams were at reaching and converting in the red zone, and whether teams needed to reach the red zone to score touchdowns.

Highlights:

Just 29.9% of all leaguewide possessions reached the red zone last season. That was the lowest rate since the 2018 season.

From 2010-2021, 81.2% of all teams that failed to score on half of their red zone trips came back and increased their red zone conversion rate the following season with an average spike of +12.6%.

Pittsburgh averaged 6.8 yards on their touchdowns in 2022. No team over the past 30 years has averaged fewer yards on touchdown plays.

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Leaguewide Red Zone Production Since 2010:

*All Drives exclude possessions that end in kneel downs

Last week we covered how the 2022 season was a scoring recession coming out of the pandemic and with NFL defenses adjusting to the best offenses.

Knowing the low-scoring statistics in that post, you should already be prepared to see that red zone production across the league suffered as well.

Not only did fewer drives reach the red zone, but teams were also worse at converting the red zone trips they did get into touchdowns. The league touchdown rate on red zone possessions was 56.8%, the lowest rate over the past three years.

If you are wondering why the red zone is so important to us for fantasy football, the answer is that’s where the touchdowns are scored. 75.8% of all offensive touchdowns came in the red zone last season. That rate was lower than the 2021 season, but it was the third consecutive year that over three-fourths of all offensive touchdowns came from the red zone.

It is not a secret the closer you get to the end zone, the easier it is to produce a touchdown. Still, since 2010, here are some numbers to consider:

  • 74.6% of all touchdowns scored have come from inside of the red zone.
  • 72.9% of all red zone touchdowns are scored from inside of the 10-yard line.
  • 47.3% of all red zone touchdowns are scored from inside of the 5-yard line.
  • 86.7% of all rushing touchdowns and 66.8% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside of the red zone.
  • 74.4% of all rushing touchdowns and 43.5% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside of the 10-yard line.
  • 57.8% of all rushing touchdowns and 22.4% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside of the 5-yard line.
  • 31.3% of all red zone touchdowns are scored from the 1-2 yard lines.
  • 23.1% of all NFL touchdowns are scored from the 1-2 yard lines.
  • 43.8% of all rushing touchdowns and 11.8% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from the 1-2 yard lines.

It is harder to run the ball in for a touchdown from long distances, but even two-thirds of the league’s passing touchdowns come from inside of the red zone.

The numbers above also further illuminate why the decline in rushing opportunities for running backs closer to the end zone has had a significant impact on fantasy within the position .

2022 Team Red Zone Rates:

If you are matching up the rate of drives a team reached the red zone above with the top-down scoring rate per drive chart from Tuesday, you will find a lot of overlap between the haves and have-nots from a year ago.

The four teams with the highest rates of reaching the red zone per drive were the Chiefs (42.0%), Lions (40.7%), Eagles (37.3%), and Bills (36.0%).

Then things get a bit interesting and give us our first glimpse into potential regression candidates.

The Ravens were fifth in the league in rate of drives to reach the red zone (35.2%), but they were 30th in converting red zone possessions into touchdowns (44.4%).

The Raiders, Seahawks, Texans, Colts, Jets, and Patriots were the other teams that were below a 50% conversion rate in the red zone a year ago.

New England’s 42.2% red zone conversion rate was dead last in the NFL and their lowest rate as a team in the 2000s.

There have been 22 teams since 2010 with a worse red zone touchdown rate than the 2022 Patriots. All but one of them increased their touchdown rate the following season with an average increase of +18.5%.

On the other end of things, it is hard to sustain a high conversion rate in the red zone.

Both the Cowboys and Chiefs converted over 70% of their red zone trips into touchdowns last season.

There have been just 14 other teams since 2010 to convert in the red zone with that type of success. Every single one of those teams had a lower rate the following season with an average decrease of -14.8%.

In the first two posts in this series, the 2022 Chiefs were comparable to the 2018 Kansas City team, and that is true here again.

That 2018 team converted 73.1% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns. The following season, it was still strong at 60.0% (11th in the league that season) but played a major role in the team scoring 20 fewer overall touchdowns. You do not have to run from all regression, but we should bet on the Chiefs scoring at a lower rate this season than they did in 2022.

There are a few other standouts here as well.

The Chargers were sixth in the NFL in rate of drives to reach the red zone (35.1%) but were 18th in red zone touchdown rate (54.6%).

The 49ers were seventh in red zone drive rate (34.9%) but 20th in touchdown conversion rate (52.8%) of those drives.

In the inverse direction, the Giants were fifth in the league in converting 64.8% of their red zone drives into touchdowns but were 20th in the league in the rate of drives to reach the red zone (27.8%).

The Titans were once again good in the red zone, converting 64.3% of their red zone trips into touchdowns (sixth), but were 31st in the league in rate of drives to reach the red zone (23.2%).

Tennessee has now converted 60% or more of their red zone trips into touchdowns in four consecutive seasons.

No team reached the red zone at a lower rate per drive last season than the Broncos at 18.5%. That was the lowest rate for a team since 2018.

The good news is that all 11 teams with a worse rate than the Broncos since 2010 came back the following season and had an increase in the rate of drives to reach the red zone. Those teams averaged an increase of +10.5% spike in that department.

2022 Team Red Zone Play Splits:

Knowing that all of those red zone plays are not equal, we can take a look at the types of red zone plays teams had a year ago and their play-calling splits in each area of the field.

Right away, we can see why the Ravens ended up having such a poor touchdown conversion rate in the red zone. While they were eighth in the NFL in total red zone plays run, just 37.5% of those red zone plays came inside of the 10-yard line, which was 29th in the NFL. They had a ton of drives reach the red zone and then immediately stall out.

No team had a lower rate of red zone plays from inside of the 10-yard line than the Seahawks (34.9%). Seattle ran just 18 plays from inside of the 5-yard line, which was the fewest in the NFL.

The Chiefs ran more plays from inside of the 10-yard line (110) than all but one team in the 2000s, which was the 2012 Patriots. The only teams in the 2000s to run more plays inside of the 5-yard line than the Chiefs last season were the 2002 Vikings and the 2011 Patriots.

From a play-calling stance, no team threw the ball at a lower rate in the red zone than the Bears (32.3%). It was the fifth-lowest pass rate of the 2000s, but since the NFL counts scrambles as rushing plays, there is some manipulation there via Justin Fields ’ rushes.

The Eagles (36.1%), Falcons (38.8%), and Panthers (41.7%) all had lower true dropback rates than the Bears inside of the red zone.

The only team that had a lower dropback rate than Philadelphia’s last season in the 2000s was the 2020 Patriots when they were spamming Cam Newton runs in the red zone.

Using the strengths of Jalen Hurts , the Eagles had just a 26.8% dropback rate on plays inside of the 10-yard line and a 15.7% rate on plays inside of the 5-yard line. No team has had a lower dropback rate inside of the five since 2016.

The Giants were also ultra-conservative and used their mobile quarterback near the end zone. New York had a dropback rate of 46.2% in the red zone (27th), 40.8% inside of the 10-yard line (30th), and 21.9% inside of the 5-yard line (31st).

The Chiefs were on the opposite end, putting the ball in the hands of Patrick Mahomes . Kansas City dropped back to pass 66.3% of the time in the red zone, which was only behind the Bucs. The Chiefs then led the NFL in dropback rates inside of the 10 (65.9%) and inside of the five (60.3%).

I have been on the upside angle of the Seattle passing game all summer, and this is another example of what could create fantasy points. Seattle did not have a lot of plays near the end zone last season, but when they were down there, they were throwing the ball, ranking third in the NFL in dropback rate inside of the 10 and second to only the Chiefs inside of the five.

Which NFL Teams Needed the Red Zone?

Seattle did not run a lot of plays near the end zone in part because they were scoring so much from long range. Only the Raiders had more touchdowns and a higher rate of offensive touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone than the Seahawks last season.

The Patriots were the only other team to join the Seahawks and Raiders in having over one-third of their touchdowns come from outside of the red zone.

91.3% of the teams that relied on scoring from long range to that degree in the 2000s came back and scored a higher rate of their touchdowns from inside of the red zone. 68% of those teams also scored more red zone touchdowns overall, with an average increase of 8.9 more red zone touchdowns.

It should be downright scary how good the Eagles were in both departments last season. Not only did they reach the red zone and convert in that area of the field to a high degree, but they also were tied for second in the NFL with 17 touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone.

Outside of the Eagles, the Bills, Cowboys, Bengals, Dolphins, and Jaguars all had double-digit touchdowns from outside of the red zone but still had at least 70% of their touchdowns come from inside of the red zone.

Last season, we saw immediately the way that the Chiefs were going to have to manufacture more touchdowns on sustained drives after trading Tyreek Hill . And they did so successfully.

84.8% of the Kansas City touchdowns came from inside of the red zone, their highest rate of the 2000s. Mahomes averaged 12.2 yards per touchdown pass, the shortest of his career.

We also immediately saw the impact that Hill had going to Miami paired with Mike McDaniel opening the offense up. Miami went from just three touchdowns from outside of the red zone in 2021 (with 90.9% in the red zone) to scoring 12 times from outside of the red zone last year, with Hill himself accounting for six of those scores.

No team needed the red zone to score last season more than the Steelers.

Last season, the Steelers scored just two touchdowns from outside of the red zone, the fewest in the NFL. Only two teams since 2000 have scored fewer in a season with two other teams also scoring just two.

The Falcons are in some rare air as well.

Atlanta had just four touchdowns from outside of the red zone (30th in the league) after just two in 2021 (32nd).  With that, they became just the fifth team in the 2000s to have back-to-back seasons with fewer than five touchdowns from outside of the red zone. The only team to do that three years in a row in the 2000s has been the 2003-2005 Bears.

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The 2020 NFL RedZone Rankings

Welcome to the only NFL rankings where the Chiefs and the Chargers go head-to-head for the top spot.   

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red zone trips nfl

The NFL’s RedZone Channel is, in an increasingly polarized world, one thing we can all agree on. It is not a completely different version of football: The sport is a game of nuances and moments between the moments. The RedZone Channel is none of those things. It’s just pure, uncut offense that, if it starts to drag, will be replaced by something better. It is an action movie with almost no dialogue and more explosions. It is, in short, perfect. And that’s why, every year, we rank the best and the worst teams on RedZone. Here are the criteria:

  • Make big plays in crucial moments: Fourth-quarter comebacks aren’t a particularly telling way to gauge a quarterback’s talent, but they’re a great way to gauge a team’s RedZone viability. If a squad is driving late, chances are it’s earning some RedZone love, hopefully by doing something wild.
  • Perform in the red zone itself: The vast majority of RedZone plays come when a team is simply in the actual, physical red zone, running its typical offense. To stand out, a team needs to score a lot in those situations, and do so in exciting fashion. Two-yard runs never made anyone want to abandon their lives and marry their television. A leaping catch in the corner of the end zone, however …
  • Don’t waste time: No team is perfect, but great RedZone squads avoid being bad in the spotlight. That means avoiding too many garbage-time scores that waste everyone’s time.
  • Look great in short bursts: It doesn’t matter if a team is 2-5. If it looks good for a few seconds when the channel pans to it, it can contribute greatly to a football Sunday.

Let’s get to the list:

32. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys’ Week 15 game against the Niners was recently flexed out of Sunday Night Football night in favor of a Browns-Giants game. “Can you imagine, man, the Dallas Cowboys flexed out for the Cleveland Browns?” Michael Irvin said . “Honestly, that’s a new low. That’s just absolutely a new low.” New lows are a recurring theme for the Cowboys this year. They were bad prior to Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury in October, but they have run the gauntlet of humiliations since then. They started a quarterback, Ben DiNucci, who was so bad that owner Jerry Jones compared him to Kendall Hinton, the practice squad wide receiver the Broncos were forced to start in Week 12 when all of their quarterbacks were unavailable due to COVID-19. Zeke Elliott, who signed a six-year, $90 million deal through 2026, has been brutal this year (his dead cap is just $6.7 million in 2023, so they can cut him relatively painlessly then). Dallas, despite having a veteran coach in Mike McCarthy and a roster it expected to contend, is unable to succeed even in one of the worst divisions in modern history. Now, the Cowboys have been abandoned by the one group that has stuck with them through thick and thin: television executives. This is a team, mind you, that is so popular that even in its putrid condition, it commanded the season’s biggest television audience for its Thanksgiving game. When the Cowboys have lost TV executives, they’ve lost everything.

31. Atlanta Falcons

This is the first of many teams whose ranking is complicated. Early-season Atlanta, coached by Dan Quinn and routinely blowing games that seemed sealed, was a must-watch RedZone team. How could you miss the potential for history in every fourth quarter?

The Falcons had a 99.9% win probability against the Cowboys and lost. The Falcons had a 99.6% win probability against the Bears and lost. Back to back weeks. pic.twitter.com/RoBag3lnHU — Jordan Heck (@JordanHeckFF) September 27, 2020

Under interim coach Raheem Morris, however, things have gotten dull. The Falcons are a special kind of bad in the red zone—a team that wastes time. Of the five worst red-zone teams this year, they’ve spent the most time there, making 17 more trips than the Jets. Matt Ryan is the only regular starter who completes under 50 percent of his attempts inside the 20-yard line and inside the 10. Being that inefficient inside the 10 is a particularly grim marker: Four quarterbacks are above 70 percent inside the 10. Carson Wentz—Carson Wentz!—has completed 72 percent of his passes inside the 10 this year.

30. New York Jets

I want to briefly give props to Joe Flacco: 19 percent of his pass attempts are deep balls, best in the NFL among players who have 100 dropbacks this year. Now, on to everything else. The Jets score a touchdown on 40 percent of their red-zone trips. This is not only the worst rate in the league, but it seems impossible. In the past few years, the Jets have, at times, been funny, but they’ve ceased even to make us laugh this year. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has been fired, and with him go Gregg Williams jokes, one of the silver linings of the season, and his propensity to play so aggressively that the Jets accidentally become visually appealing. The only joke that remains is the franchise itself. This is a bad team to watch.

Statistically, the #Jets are one of the worst teams in NFL history. Comparing their average margin of defeat to the three teams that went 0-14 or worse: ‘76 Bucs: -20.5 ‘20 Jets: -16.2 ‘08 Lions: -15.6 ‘17 Browns: -11.0 @ESPNStatsInfo — Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) December 14, 2020

29. Cincinnati Bengals

Last year, I dubbed the worst four teams on this list the Four Horsemen of the RedZone Apocalypse. They were Washington, the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. Washington and the Giants moved out of this zone this year. The Jets are firmly still in it. The Bengals had a real chance to get out of it and into watchability when they selected Joe Burrow first overall. And in September and October, they looked vaguely watchable.

Since Burrow’s injury, they, are, uh, not.

I love football. Watch Darnay Holmes ( @ProwayDarnay ) absolutely PLASTER Brandon Allen on the CB blitz. Pat Graham LOVES these CB blitzes off the edge, hits home on 1 or 2 every week. pic.twitter.com/JhTjtXu32L — Alex Wilson (@AlexWilsonESM) December 1, 2020
Oof, there’s the Brandon Allen I remember pic.twitter.com/VBgG5ZiySO — Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) December 6, 2020

28. Chicago Bears

It’s not the notes you play in jazz, it’s the ones that you don’t play. The Bears can be described the same way. The only entertainment here is the subtext. The quarterbacks who are not on the roster make everything about the Bears’ quarterback situation funnier. Every huge mistake the franchise has made in the last few years hangs over them like a fog. But you can’t see that on a play-to-play basis, which makes them a terrible RedZone team. The only thing worth watching is who gets fired and who gets benched. This is entertaining but not visually appealing. They are a funny team to tweet or read about and a terrible team to watch. At least they have Allen Robinson. Chicago isn’t last on this list because a late-season Mitchell Trubisky run, potentially forcing the Bears to bring him back, would actually be one of the most entertaining things of the season. Fingers crossed.

A few years ago, NFL Network’s RedZone host, Scott Hanson, told me that because offenses can score from anywhere on the field now, the channel has had to get more precise in how and when to present each touchdown. You can’t predict a 60-yard touchdown in the same way you can a 5-yarder, yet 60-yard touchdowns are increasingly common in this era of football. The Bears are something different: a threat to score from nowhere, a slog no matter where they are on the field. An unwatchable mess.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars

I award the Jaguars points for such a transparent tank that almost anything good they do is an accident. People around the league think the team’s general manager vacancy is actually a pretty good job. One day, we might laugh at how bad this year was. Well, we’re laughing now, but we might laugh in a good way.

And the luckiest pass of the week has to be Mike Glennon's turnover-worthy TD pic.twitter.com/ADDQVDKvfy — Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) December 8, 2020

26. Detroit Lions

Like the Falcons, the Lions reliably blew games to the point that you couldn’t keep your eyes off them. You had to watch them if they were in the double box. You never knew what was coming next.

2020 Lions have joined the 2011 Vikings as the only teams in NFL history to lose 3 of their 1st 4 games after holding double-digit leads '11 Vikings started 0-4 & blew a double-digit lead in 3 of those gms, before finishing 3-13 The Falcons could join these teams tomorrow night — NFL Research (@NFLResearch) October 4, 2020

And, like the Falcons, once they fired their bad coach, things got a little more boring. The Lions are tied for the league lead for the most red-zone touchdowns, so that’s something. Even Matthew Stafford, the king of creating something from absolutely nothing, has mostly failed to create any good content this year.

25. New York Giants

Last season, Daniel Jones led regular starters in what Football Outsiders calls “ failed completions ”—the short explanation is that he throws less than the ideal yardage on every down. This season, the Giants are one of the worst red-zone teams in football, scoring on half of their trips. There hasn’t been a lot of watchable football in New York.

The Giants deserve kudos for not being a disaster: Joe Judge seems like a decent coach, and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham has gotten the most out of players like Jabrill Peppers.

Jabrill Peppers is my favorite player on the defense. Plays fast, aggressive & with confidence. Isn’t afraid to make mistakes. Good job on Patrick Graham for putting him in his best spot. pic.twitter.com/2KTok5hqhb — Bobby Skinner (@BobbySkinner_) December 7, 2020

They have a long way to go, however, to be anything other than mediocre. When Hanson or host of DirecTV’s RedZone, Andrew Siciliano, does cut to the Giants, there’s always a chance that Jones is about to fumble, which he does at a historic rate. But that’s simply not enough to get anyone excited when this team is on the channel.

Daniel Jones has lost 52 yards in sacks and fumbled 3 times. He's the first QB to have a game with 50+ sack yards and 3+ fumbles since...Daniel Jones, in 2019. Jones is the first QB since 1994 to have three games like that https://t.co/gehDvlXPFA pic.twitter.com/guV5PZjBYT — ProFootballReference (@pfref) December 13, 2020

24. Denver Broncos

The Broncos turn the ball over on nearly 20 percent of their drives, by far the most in the NFL, which at least keeps things interesting. It’s not all bad. Drew Lock leads the NFL in intended air yards per pass attempt—he’s the only QB averaging over 9 yards per attempt. That’s something to watch. Hinton, the aforementioned practice squad receiver who started a game for Denver at quarterback, made for one of the most thrilling concepts in a game this year. But that game, like the Broncos overall, was better in concept than in reality. The Hinton game, through no fault of his, was an unwatchable mess. And this Broncos team isn’t much more watchable on a normal week.

23. Carolina Panthers

If I could buy stock in a team improving its ranking next year, I’d probably buy Carolina’s. If offensive coordinator Joe Brady stays, and running back Christian McCaffrey is healthy, they might push for the top 10. For now, it’s mostly Teddy Bridgewater playing mistake-free football and little else.

Teddy Bridgewater is absolutely the quarterback we thought he is: 2nd best in avoiding negatively graded plays, 3rd worst in generating positively graded plays. — Moo (@PFF_Moo) December 16, 2020

At least Matt Rhule’s smock shakes things up.

The official Panthers debut for Matt Rhule's smock. What a time. : @MattHintonPhoto pic.twitter.com/8Lj71bdluJ — Alaina Getzenberg (@agetzenberg) October 25, 2020

22. New England Patriots

I suppose New England would be high on your list if you’re into Pats schadenfreude. The Patriots are not particularly good, and they’re not nearly as good as they should be in the red zone. Cam Newton is tied with Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook for most rushing touchdowns in the red zone. He leads the league in touchdowns inside the 5. But New England is still one of the most inefficient teams in the red zone and simply doesn’t score enough to be worth watching.

Patriots ranks in PPG since 2001 (first year w/ Brady starts) 2001: 6 2002: 10 2003: 12 2004: 4 2005: 10 2006: 7 2007: 1 2008: 8 2009: 6 2010: 1 2011: 3 2012: 1 2013: 3 2014: 4 2015: 3 2016: 3 2017: 2 2018: 4 2019: 7 2020: 26 pic.twitter.com/U0shtM4cQS — NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) December 16, 2020

21. Houston Texans

It is hard to believe that the Texans played one of the most entertaining games of the calendar year in a wild win over Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in last season’s wild-card game. You should watch Deshaun Watson every time he drops back—something special can always happen—but his franchise has stacked the deck against him. Bill O’Brien spent the last few years misunderstanding value and talent until Watson was left basically alone on offense. He’s still worth watching, and he’s scrambled 53 times this year, by far the most in the league. That’s exciting. It’s also part of the problem.

20. San Francisco 49ers

Injuries have dealt a huge blow to the Niners’ watchability and their success. George Kittle breaking tackles is fun. That defense destroying dudes is fun. Jimmy Garoppolo getting the ball in playmakers’ hands and letting them run through people’s faces is fun. At their best, the 49ers play a brand of bullyball that is aesthetically pleasing. But because they’ve been so decimated by injuries, I do not want them on my television.

19. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are not unwatchable, but they’re not nearly as watchable as they could be. Las Vegas leads the NFL with 13 field goals from 20 to 29 yards. By comparison, the Packers have one field goal from that range despite being near the end zone much more frequently. The Raiders have not attempted a two-point conversion this year. If they have one saving grace, it’s that they are the only team to allow points on over half their drives this year. They have the pieces to get more exciting: Henry Ruggs III and Josh Jacobs are watchable. Derek Carr is fine. I’m OK with this team in a triple box. Maybe a double box.

18. Washington Football Team

Alex Smith’s completed air yards per pass, 3.9, is last in the league. No one is all that close to that mark. This team does not play an arresting style of football. But it does have individual talents worth watching: Chase Young is starting to take over games.

CHASE YOUNG. @youngchase907 #WashingtonFootball : #WASvsSF on FOX : NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/3alYfT3slD pic.twitter.com/dv5glFuSMh — NFL (@NFL) December 13, 2020

Terry McLaurin is one of the NFL’s best young receivers.

Terry McLaurin is such a good route runner pic.twitter.com/gA7gw2zlNF — Mark Bullock (@MarkBullockNFL) December 13, 2020

This team’s watchability heyday has yet to come. But it’s coming.

17. Minnesota Vikings

This week, Bills star Stefon Diggs revealed he wanted to leave Minnesota because of its run-heavy offense.

Stefon Diggs now revealing that he demanded out of Minnesota because they over-committed to the run and I love Stefon Diggs now https://t.co/RsWHcBb2nU pic.twitter.com/NRlX2PG0o0 — Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 14, 2020

Diggs is right that the Vikings prefer a more conservative style, but they can be watchable in spurts, which is the point of this list. Only Aaron Rodgers has more deep completions this season than Kirk Cousins, according to Pro Football Focus. Rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson is a revelation. Dalvin Cook is one of the most exciting players with the ball in his hands.

16. Philadelphia Eagles

Last year, I wrote of the Eagles: “Not just bad, boring.” They are still bad, but they are no longer boring. There are two Eagles teams. One can be described thusly:

Jalen Hurts is what Sean Payton thinks Taysom Hill is — Moo (@PFF_Moo) December 13, 2020

The other can be described with this:

How bad is Carson Wentz's 2020 falloff? He's currently second only to the 2015 Ghost of Peyton Manning in the biggest dropoff in DYAR from his previous three seasons' average. He'd have to hit -1,535 passing DYAR to pass Manning pic.twitter.com/2bQwlNu452 — Bryan Knowles (@BryKno) December 3, 2020

The Wentz version would be in contention for dead last on this list. The Hurts version is too new to make declarations about, but it exhibits some competence . Pro Football Focus’s Seth Galina made the case this week that the Eagles improved across the board with Hurts as the starter. The Hurts-led version of the Eagles is clearly better and has a very high watchability ceiling.

15. Indianapolis Colts

A fine team with great players. Not particularly exciting unless we had a live feed of this:

"Dagummit!" Legendary trash talker Philip Rivers turns 39 today (via @NFLFilms ) pic.twitter.com/Xz15UEoaro — ESPN (@espn) December 8, 2020

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A few years ago, I talked to Siciliano about the RedZone Channel era of the NFL. He mentioned that if there’s a Mount Rushmore, the first two names on the list are Tom Brady and Drew Brees. These two, he explained, always deliver. When they are on, things will happen. In Tampa, however, the things that are happening are not all that good. Twenty percent of Brady’s throws are labeled as bad throws by Pro Football Reference, third-worst in the league. His deep passing problems late in this season are well documented.

Per @NextGenStats Tom Brady was 0-6 with 2 INT on deep passes against the Rams. Brady is 0-19 on deep passes in his last 4 games and missed on his last 22 deep attempts. That's the longest streak for any QB since 2017. pic.twitter.com/Lg7d4PVMce — NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 24, 2020

The Bucs offense will probably click at some point—there’s too much talent to not improve by January, and Brady and Bruce Arians are too good at their jobs not to figure it out. I just don’t want to watch them until it’s figured out.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers

Well, this is a type of watchability.

BILLS PICK-SIX ON BIG BEN (via @NFL ) pic.twitter.com/JNpevUSAOw — Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 14, 2020

The Steelers blitz at one of the highest rates in the NFL and they pressure and knock down quarterbacks more than anyone in the league. At different points this season, they have had weapons who have looked like legitimate stars, like Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson, before he started dropping passes. Although they are a generally pleasant team to watch, Ben Roethlisberger is simply very limited in what he can do.

Ben doesn't even try to throw to the intermediate/deep middle of the field anymore. It was @pff_seth who first pointed this out to me, and now I can't unsee it. It's all deep sideline shots and underneath stuff. pic.twitter.com/wyH8dv4ZNk — Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) December 3, 2020

On defense, Pittsburgh has playmakers like Minkah Fitzpatrick and T.J. Watt to spice things up, but they don’t offset how unfun it is to see Big Ben hobbling around. This is a very good team with a real chance of a playoff run. That doesn’t mean you should be excited when RedZone cuts to them.

12. Cleveland Browns

The idea of the Browns winning games is more exciting than watching the Browns win games. Baker Mayfield has had six games with fewer than 200 yards passing, which is partly attributable to the weather Cleveland has played in, and partly due to a change in their style of play. Browns fans absolutely do not care whether it looks particularly pretty as long as they make their first playoff appearance in almost 20 years. But this list cares. In 2018, the Browns were ranked no. 1 in these rankings. “The Browns will not make the playoffs,” I wrote then. “Mayfield is 6-6 as a starter and he’ll have to settle for being hyped up for the next nine months. But the Browns accomplished something as impressive in 2018: They are fun as hell to watch.” The Browns have gotten more boring since that chaotic season. (Gregg Williams was their coach!) They’ve also gotten much, much better. They’ll take that.

11. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have a good chance to compete for this list’s no. 1 spot in future seasons. Kliff Kingsbury’s play-calling has been strange this year, and Kyler Murray has been slightly banged up in recent games. Still, Arizona plays an appealing brand of football. Murray has the most pass attempts in the league on RPOs and is second to Lamar Jackson in rushing attempts by a quarterback. Kyler has the capability to be one of the league’s best quarterbacks and soon.

Players to rack up a first down or TD on at least 40% of their rush attempts in a single season 2010-2020 (min. 100 carries, PFF) 2014 Cam Newton (43.7%) 2015 Newton (42.4%) 2011 Newton (41.8%) 2020 Newton (41.6%) 2020 Kyler Murray (40%) — Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 15, 2020
Kyler Murray is special. 2nd & 9, Cardinals 35-yard line, 2nd quarter at Giants. His feet. His eyes. Rocket arm. This play in particular so impressive to watch in person Sunday at MetLife Stadium. pic.twitter.com/CK9hLn6Njn — Pat Leonard (@PLeonardNYDN) December 14, 2020

There’s also this keeping the Cardinals out of the top 10:

DeAndre Hopkins route tree over his last three games has been... limited pic.twitter.com/dQzK9ZQtbV — Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 8, 2020

10. Baltimore Ravens

It pains me to put the Ravens, last year’s top-ranked team, this low. Last year I wrote: “The Baltimore Ravens are the only NFL team to score on over half of their drives. If an alien came down tomorrow and asked to see a football team to learn what the sport is, we’d take them to Baltimore.” That was very much true a year ago. Now we’d take them to Kansas City. Or Green Bay. Or Buffalo (we gotta get the aliens to a Bills tailgate ). The offense has looked stagnant at times this season. Lamar Jackson has questioned the predictability of the team’s play-calling, and offensive coordinator Greg Roman has come under fire. But we have to watch for one reason: When Jackson drops back, there is a chance that we are about to see the coolest thing we’ve ever seen.

Lamar to Mark Andrews! #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/baPz5D57qK — Roto Street Journal (RSJ) (@RotoStJournal) December 15, 2020

9. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins create fun. They force turnovers on 17 percent of their defensive snaps, the highest rate in the league. They are allowing the second-fewest points. On offense, Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in aggressive throws. They are a fun, young team competing for the playoffs sooner than anyone thought. Let’s watch this team!

The NFL's 10 least aggressive passers vs. 10 most aggressive (number is % of throws where a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of pass), per NGS. Interesting so many effective scramblers (Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers, Darnold, Murray) are among first group pic.twitter.com/zN27Jc8brm — Kaelen Jones (@kaelenjones) December 7, 2020

8. Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay is back. Defensive coordinator Brandon Staley has one of the most interesting defenses in the sport. And the team does enough to make Jared Goff look OK:

Jared Goff's average pass traveled 3.5 yards past the LOS Sunday - the lowest of any starter. And he still threw for 351 yards. Rams had 253 yards after the catch - second most by any team in a game this season. That was a coaching clinic on how to make life easier for your QB. — Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) December 8, 2020

A bonus: The stadium legitimately looks cool on television!

Jared Goff with an absolutely flawless spike after his rushing TD today. pic.twitter.com/ZVHNQqNhRV — Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 11, 2020

7. New Orleans Saints

Let’s say this up top: If Jameis Winston started in place of the injured Drew Brees, the Saints might be no. 1 on this list. Instead, it’s Taysom Hill, a different type of entertainment. Hill makes far fewer mistakes than Winston—who threw 30 interceptions last season and somehow still led the league in interceptions that should have been thrown. Taysom Hill averages 9.3 yards per scramble. Among regular starters, that is behind only Newton. He is getting better as a passer:

TAYSOM HILL #Saints pic.twitter.com/gUgJT2mMoY — uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) December 14, 2020
Taysom Hill with the DIME and the #Saints aren’t done pic.twitter.com/GK2CK5M81u — The Game Day NFL (@TheGameDayNFL) December 13, 2020

Brees will likely return at some point and bring a higher level of competence to a team with exciting players like Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. For now, just enjoy the weirdness. It’s not Jameis, but it’s the next best thing.

Taysom Hill TD x 2 Not bad for a tight end pic.twitter.com/ZgmJwvM8P4 — Sporting News (@sportingnews) November 22, 2020

6. Tennessee Titans

The ingredients for a great game: terrible pass rush and letting teams stay in it by allowing them to convert third downs. There is an unpredictability to everything the Titans do, coupled with the fact that A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry can do basically anything they want at any time.

A.J. Brown with an UNREAL catch ( : @Titans pic.twitter.com/DTPF3Roz7T ) — Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 13, 2020

Henry is tied for the NFL lead with 11 rushing touchdowns in the red zone, so he gets the job done there. More importantly he can do this from anywhere on the field:

DERRICK HENRY GAME-WINNING TD (via @NFL ) pic.twitter.com/xGSXYfH0bQ — Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 22, 2020

5. Seattle Seahawks

I don’t actually remember what prompted me to tweet “The Seahawks have literally never played in a normal game” last November. It seemed like an obvious statement during a pretty wild 49ers-Seahawks game. The reason it connected with Seahawks fans is that it is their reality. It turns out Seattle simply doesn’t play normal games. The data backs this up.

Turns out the Seahawks really have never played a normal game. Using Excitement Index I looked back at some of the weirdest stretches of games we've seen over the last four seasons. https://t.co/vEEknB5pz0 pic.twitter.com/N8ltiFWX6c — Nate Weller (@NateWellerr) April 30, 2020

Per The Wall Street Journal in January 2020:

“On 53 plays this season, Seattle’s win probability in a given game either increased or decreased by at least 15 percent. That wasn’t just the most in the NFL. It was leagues beyond the norm. The league average team had only 26.6 plays that created that much change, or around the Seahawks. The next closest team, the 49ers, had 47, or a difference of more than 10 percent.”

What’s important here is that the Seahawks’ games are getting weirder : Seattle’s defense is worse this year and its offense is better. Russell Wilson is better than ever, yet he leads the league in picks inside the 10-yard line (three), which is enough to keep things interesting. The Seahawks are getting more exciting. They are getting less normal. I’ll take all of that you got.

4. Buffalo Bills

Is there anything Josh Allen can't do? #BUFvsAZ on CBS pic.twitter.com/vBKF5ufIVo — Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 15, 2020
The fact that Josh Allen completed this pass is crazy @JoshAllenQB @BuffaloBills #BUFvsAZ on CBS pic.twitter.com/KPrNAYqW3T — The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) November 15, 2020
Josh Allen has a Pass TD & Rush TD in a game for the 15th time in his career, the 2nd-most by a player in his first 3 seasons in NFL history behind Cam Newton's 20. Allen's 15 such games are by far the most in the NFL since he entered the league in 2018. pic.twitter.com/DVE0Pl8QND — ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 29, 2020

3. Green Bay Packers

Hanson once told me that the worst RedZone teams are the ones who get there and then waste time with no efficiency. The Packers are definitely not that. Davante Adams leads the NFL in receptions inside the 10, catching 81 percent of his passes. He’s tied for first with Mike Evans in touchdowns inside the 10 and second in touchdowns inside the 20. Aaron Rodgers has the best completion percentage among regular starters in the red zone. He leads the NFL in red zone touchdowns with 28, three more than Russell Wilson. Unsurprisingly, he has zero interceptions there, either.

I know Aaron Rodgers makes the impossible look pretty routine, but this play is just absolutely ridiculous... #GoPackGo #GOAT pic.twitter.com/jBEwqZt5c3 — Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) December 13, 2020
Here's a wow stat: Aaron Rodgers has more touchdown passes (39) than JK Scott has punts (38) in 2020. pic.twitter.com/wKDG3p231c — Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) December 14, 2020

2. Kansas City Chiefs

I have written, conservatively, tens of thousands of words about the Chiefs since the start of the 2018 season—about Patrick Mahomes’s ability to make miracles look normal, or his ability to correct mistakes in mid-drive or mid-play. But no description can match seeing it for oneself:

Since the start of 2019, the Chiefs are now 8-1 (.888) with Patrick Mahomes at QB after falling behind by 10+ points. The rest of the NFL is 68-356-1 (.160) combined when trailing by 10+ points during that same period. — Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 13, 2020

A lead isn’t a lead against the Chiefs, and that’s why they are incredible to watch. They can feature any player they want, whether it’s Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, or whomever else, and score quickly and emphatically. They are the perfect offense.

1. Los Angeles Chargers

The two most important days of your life, the saying goes, is the day you’re born and the day you figure out why. If you’ve wondered why the Chargers exist—a team mostly unwanted by the city they play in, and who have contributed almost nothing to the greater good of the sport in recent years—we are getting closer to finding the answer. They are the perfect cocktail of football entertainment. Justin Herbert looks like he’s going to be one of the league’s best passers for years to come, but he’s been surrounded by so many little disasters that he not only doesn’t win, he aggressively loses. The Chargers do things like this:

Ladies and gentlemen, the Los Angeles Chargers pic.twitter.com/sB6XiCttff — Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 13, 2020
QB IS SNEAKING WHEN O-LINE IS DROPPING IN PASS PRO FIRE EVERYONE pic.twitter.com/633syvqRNr — Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) November 29, 2020

This week, The Wall Street Journal detailed that, statistically, the Chargers have by far the most horrible losses in the sport . The same paper also found that in 2016, the Chargers lost four consecutive games in which they had win probabilities in the third quarter or later of 77.9 percent, 84.7 percent, and 99.9 percent twice. The WSJ found, incredibly, that the Chargers had a 1-in-30 million odds of losing all four of those games given those circumstances.

Since then, they have changed quarterbacks, cities, and coaches. They have promise. They also have a purpose. To play the most entertaining football in the league.

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2022 NFL Red Zone Passing Stats

AP MVP : Patrick Mahomes

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Ravens set mark with touchdowns on first 12 red zone trips

red zone trips nfl

BALTIMORE -- The Baltimore Ravens are more than just the only perfect team in the red zone this season.

The Ravens are also NFL record-setters when it comes to reaching the end zone inside the 20-yard line. Baltimore became the first team in league history to score touchdowns on its first 12 red zone trips, according to Elias Sports Bureau research.

Quarterback Joe Flacco said the reason why the Ravens have become automatic in the red zone is because teams can't predict what they'll do.

"We've had a good mix," Flacco said. "I think we've probably thrown the ball in six times and run the ball in six times. If you can do both of those things, especially when you get down tight inside the 5-yard line. ... That helps a lot. It takes a lot of pressure off your offense. We've got good playmakers, and we put a lot of pressure on the defense with the guys that we have out there."

Flacco is correct. Through the first three games, Alex Collins , Buck Allen and Kennth Dixon have combined for six touchdown runs, and John Brown , Michael Crabtree , Willie Snead, Mark Andrews and Allen have totaled six touchdown catches.

In Sunday's 27-14 win over the Denver Broncos , Baltimore was 3-for-3 in the red zone. Collins scored a 6-yard touchdown run, and Allen crossed the goal line twice (a 12-yard catch and a 1-yard run).

Only three teams are currently converting more than 85 percent of the time in the red zone this season: the Kansas City Chiefs (11-of-12), the Cincinnati Bengals (7-of-8) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-of-7).

It was only a few years ago when the Ravens had been one of the worst teams inside the 20. From 2013 to 2016, Baltimore scored touchdowns 50 percent of the time in the red zone (104-of-208), which ranked No. 30 in the NFL.

The change in the Ravens' red zone fortune dates back to last season. In the past eight games (including three in 2018), Baltimore has scored 26 touchdowns on 32 red zone trips (81 percent).

"Without short-changing the players in any way, I thought some of the plays have been really brilliant," coach John Harbaugh said. "We've had some play-action plays, where some guys have been wide-open, some easy throws, stuff like that."

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Falcons score one touchdown on five red zone trips as 49ers win 31-13

  • Charean Williams ,
  • Charean Williams

The Falcons had five red zone trips. They scored one touchdown and one field goal.

On three possessions they were stopped on downs inside the 10.

The 49ers rolled to a 31-13 victory, moving to 8-6 on the season. The Falcons fell to 6-8, putting a big dent in their playoff hopes.

San Francisco has won five of its past six games.

The 49ers didn’t have Elijah Mitchell on Sunday. It didn’t matter. They still rushed for 162 yards on 32 carries as Jeff Wilson, Kyle Juszczyk and Deebo Samuel rushed for a touchdown. Wilson gained 110 yards on 21 carries, his third career 100-yard game, and Samuel ran 29 yards on six carries and caught four passes for 60 yards.

The 49ers scored four touchdowns in their five red zone trips.

Jimmy Garoppolo was 18-of-23 for 235 yards and a touchdown. George Kittle caught six passes for 93 yards.

Matt Ryan was 19-of-32 for 236 yards and a touchdown. The 49ers sacked him three times.

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Analysis: Red zone efficiency down for 19 NFL teams seven weeks into season

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) scrambles away from Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Khalil Mack (52) during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) scrambles away from Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Khalil Mack (52) during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) evades Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Joey Bosa, right, during the first half of an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Monday, Oct. 16, 2023, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) escapes the tackle from Miami Dolphins linebacker David Long Jr. (51) during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

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red zone trips nfl

The red zone has become a danger zone for many NFL offenses.

Nineteen teams are scoring touchdowns at a lower rate inside the opponents’ 20-yard line than they did last season.

The list includes the teams that finished Nos. 1-8 in red zone efficiency in 2022. The Cowboys are down from 71.43% to just 39.13%. The Chiefs are at 57.14%, down from 71.08%. The Eagles have gone from 68% to 50%.

The Falcons-Buccaneers matchup featured plenty of red zone malfunctions. Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder fumbled three times inside the 15, including twice at the 1, and yet the Falcons beat the Buccaneers 16-13.

Tampa settled for three field goals in the red zone, including a missed opportunity to take the lead late in the game after getting a first down at the Falcons 8. Baker Mayfield threw two incomplete passes, got sacked and the Buccaneers left Atlanta enough time to drive for the win.

“We’re really close. That’s what is just so frustrating about it is we’re not able to finish, but we’re right there,” Mayfield said.

The Commanders had a first down at the Giants 12 down 14-7 late in the game, but Sam Howell threw incomplete on consecutive passes from the 7. On Washington’s previous possession, they had a first down at the 16, but the drive stalled and a 27-yard field-goal try was blocked.

FILE -New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) in action against the Philadelphia Eagles during an NFL football game, Monday, Dec. 25, 2023, in Philadelphia. Star running back Saquon Barkley moved another step closer to free agency Tuesday, Marchy 5, 2024 when the New York Giants elected not to put a franchise tag on the second overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft.(AP Photo/Rich Schultz, File)

“We did a lot of good things, and unfortunately, we didn’t capitalize,” Commanders coach Ron Rivera said. “We’ll continue to work on it. We’ll continue to look at the things we’re doing and evaluate what we’re doing, and we’ll get those things corrected.”

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs finished strong by scoring touchdowns on three straight trips inside the red zone in a 31-17 win over the Chargers. They hope to build off that success and get back to being closer to automatic.

“When he’s on fire like that, that’s something that’s fun to watch for all of us,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said of Mahomes. “Like I’ve said before, we’re lucky to have him here in Kansas City.”

PURDY ORDINARY

Brock Purdy is suddenly throwing ill-advised passes into coverage and making mistakes he hadn’t made since his sensational start for the San Francisco 49ers.

Purdy threw interceptions on San Francisco’s final two possessions in a 22-17 loss at Minnesota on Monday night.

His struggles coincide with key injuries to do-it-all receiver Deebo Samuel and All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams. Star running back Christian McCaffrey also missed part of a loss at Cleveland in the previous game.

With a full complement of playmakers and blockers, Purdy has played at an MVP level. Without some of those talented guys, he’s been ordinary.

The 49ers (5-2) now have to bounce back from consecutive losses on a short week against a tough opponent when Joe Burrow and the Bengals (3-3) visit San Francisco.

They’ll need Purdy to protect the ball and make better decisions.

MYLES ON A MISSION

Two-time All-Pro edge rusher Myles Garrett somehow doesn’t get enough attention despite being a big-time game-wrecker for the Cleveland Browns. Garrett became the first player to get at least two sacks and two forced fumbles and block a field goal in the same game since 2000. His standout performance helped the Browns beat Indianapolis 39-38 .

If Garrett, who has 7 1/2 sacks this season, continues to dominate on a defense that’s ranked No. 1 in the NFL, he could earn some MVP consideration.

“I said it before, he’s the best defensive player in the league, and he’s going to go down as one of the greatest defensive players to ever play the game,” Browns cornerback Greg Newsome said. “So glad to have him on our team. And a guy like that was able to make so many plays for us out there and bail us out a few times. So, it’s just amazing to have him on our team.”

STILL AT THE TOP

The No. 1 teams in the AFC and the NFC are familiar with being at the top. The Chiefs and Eagles are both off to 6-1 starts after finishing first in their conferences last season and meeting in a thrilling Super Bowl that was won by Kansas City.

They’ve clearly separated themselves again seven weeks into this season.

The 49ers (5-2) have lost two in a row. The Dolphins (5-2) have only defeated teams with losing records. The Cowboys (4-2) have had their issues. The Lions (5-2) were destroyed by the Ravens (5-2). The Bills (4-3) have played poorly in their past three games.

If power rankings meant anything, Baltimore and the Jaguars (5-2) would have to be behind Philadelphia and Kansas City.

AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

ROB MAADDI

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49ers-Packers: These are two elite offenses on third down and in the red zone

We’ll start by breaking these two teams down using variance

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Los Angeles Rams v San Francisco 49ers

Throughout the week, we plan on breaking down every aspect of the San Francisco 49ers matchup between the Green Bay Packers . Let’s start with the phase of the game that we only talk about when something goes wrong: Special teams.

These teams have plenty of strengths, but the kicking game is not one. The Niners rank 26th in special teams DVOA, while the Pack are 31st. Each team has taken a step back from a season ago, when they were 15th and 16th, respectively.

The 49ers fumbled the eighth-fewest times in the NFL, while Green Bay was 14th. Both teams did an excellent job of taking care of the football in that sense. They were equally as fortunate to recover those fumbles.

The Packers recovered 70 percent of their fumbles, which marked the third-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, the Niners were ninth, recovering 57 percent. There’s no way to determine how the ball will bounce once it hits the ground. Both teams benefitted from fumble luck this season.

Third downs

The best offenses in the NFL don’t get to third down. The 49ers were ruthlessly efficient this year, as they faced the fewest third downs in the NFL by a comfortable margin. San Francisco was on the field for 192 third downs compared to 242 for the Packers.

Jordan Love and Brock Purdy led their offenses to convert third downs at a top-5 rate. That doesn’t change when you change how you’re judging a team by third downs. For example, nobody is expected to convert 3rd & 17, but 3rd & 5 is more than manageable. Kyle Shanahan’s crew finished second in the NFL in third down conversions over expectation, exceeding expectations by 8 percent. The Packers weren’t far behind; they were fifth at 5.7 percent over expectation.

Another way to gauge a unit is by using EPA, which tells us whether they generate big plays. Nothing changes here, either. San Francisco ranks second in EPA per play on third downs, while the Packers are fourth.

We are talking about two offenses operating at an elite level.

How often you move the ball per drive and into the red zone is a better predictive measure of your offense than how many points you score.

Unsurprisingly, the Packers and 49ers are in the top five in red zone trips, too. Green Bay had one more trip to the red zone this season than the 49ers. If we’re using season-long metrics, the Packers were middle of the road, as they only converted a touchdown on 54 percent of their trips.

Red zone efficiency will be one of the most crucial deciding factors in the game. If Love and the Packers offense is settling for three points, the 49ers will find themselves in the NFC Championship game.

No team converted touchdowns at a higher rate than the Niners. This season, they converted 67 percent of red zone trips into touchdowns. However, at this juncture, we should only be referencing second-half stats.

Fortunately, the 49ers' number went up a touch to 68.6 percent. Green Bay’s does as well to 56 percent, but that still leaves them in the middle of the pack.

You’re not beating Purdy and this offense with field goals. Not at home. Not unless peak Joe Burrow is rolling into Levi’s Stadium.

Defensive variance

Let’s switch gears and talk about the same three categories, just on defense. Both units were above average during the second half, forcing ten and nine fumbles. There’s a stark contrast in fumble luck. Green Bay recovered seven of the ten fumbles they faced.

Conversely, the Niners only recovered three of the nine fumbles they forced since Week 10. Hopefully, they have better luck in the playoffs when the ball bounces around on the ground.

Third down defense

The more we dig into defensive stats, the more you’ll see why the Niners are favored to win by double-digits. Green Bay faced the fifth-most third downs after Week 10. San Francisco was 17th.

Teams got to third down against the Packers and converted, as they allowed the fifth-highest conversation rate over expectation. The Niners were 11th, which is slightly below average.

As for EPA allowed on third downs, Green Bay allowed the sixth-highest against compared to San Francisco, ranking 12th. The difference in the number is significant. The Packers EPA allowed on third downs was 0.22, compared to the 49ers’ -0.01.

Red zone defense

No team allowed more trips inside of their red zone than Gren Bay since Week 10. Nine teams allowed at least 30 red zone trips. Green Bay had one more than Seattle at 36. Here’s the top five:

Packers - 36 Seahawks - 35 Cowboys -32 Commanders - 31 Eagles - 31

Think about how porous those defenses were in the second half. You don’t have to use your imagination too much, as we just watched the Cowboys' and Eagles' defense allow their opponent to go up and down the field. Well, using a two-month sample size, the Packers were worse.

Steve Wilks’ defense surrendered 26 red zone trips, which was the tenth-lowest rate in the NFL. They allowed a touchdown inside the 20 50 percent of the time, which was the 9th-best rate. Green Bay was at 58 percent, good for 13th.

Both teams will move the ball, but the numbers suggest one team won’t have an issue scoring, while the road team may need good fortune to stay in the game.

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2021 NFL Team Red Zone Stats

Having efficiency in the red zone is often a clear sign of a good team. Offensively, strong NFL stats in the red zone lead to scoring when the opportunity presents itself. Defensively, holding opponents out of the end zone, whether by forcing field goals or turnovers, can fully change the momentum of a game.

Below, we have NFL team red zone stats from the 2021 season. If you’re a stats nerd, you likely already know how to use these stats. If you’re trying to use these NFL stats for fantasy football, there’s a lot to gain from the table below.

First, defenses that allow red zone trips but prevent touchdowns (bend but don’t break) leads to high potential for kickers. Offensively, we’re obviously looking for high-touchdown efficiency. However, ranking high in red zone drives and lower in touchdown percentage is also good news for fantasy football kickers.

NFL Stats Key:

  • Green means offensive stats, while red is defensive stats.
  • Red Zone = Inside the 20-yard line, going towards the end zone.
  • RZD = Red Zone Drives
  • TD/G = Red Zone Touchdowns Per Game
  • TD% = Touchdown Percentage = Red Zone drives resulting in a touchdown

FlurrySports offers more NFL stats for casual use or fantasy football research right here!

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NFL Red Zone Stats - Running Backs

Weeks 1 to 17 (2023).

What is the Red Zone in football? The red zone is the areas of the field between the 20 yard line and the goal line. Red Zone stats are important for fantasy football because more opportunities and production likely to result in touchdowns given the proximity to the endzone. To view more stats, check out our Stats reports .

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In Transit: Notes from the Underground

Jun 06 2018.

Spend some time in one of Moscow’s finest museums.

Subterranean commuting might not be anyone’s idea of a good time, but even in a city packing the war-games treasures and priceless bejeweled eggs of the Kremlin Armoury and the colossal Soviet pavilions of the VDNKh , the Metro holds up as one of Moscow’s finest museums. Just avoid rush hour.

The Metro is stunning and provides an unrivaled insight into the city’s psyche, past and present, but it also happens to be the best way to get around. Moscow has Uber, and the Russian version called Yandex Taxi , but also some nasty traffic. Metro trains come around every 90 seconds or so, at a more than 99 percent on-time rate. It’s also reasonably priced, with a single ride at 55 cents (and cheaper in bulk). From history to tickets to rules — official and not — here’s what you need to know to get started.

A Brief Introduction Buying Tickets Know Before You Go (Down) Rules An Easy Tour

A Brief Introduction

Moscow’s Metro was a long time coming. Plans for rapid transit to relieve the city’s beleaguered tram system date back to the Imperial era, but a couple of wars and a revolution held up its development. Stalin revived it as part of his grand plan to modernize the Soviet Union in the 1920s and 30s. The first lines and tunnels were constructed with help from engineers from the London Underground, although Stalin’s secret police decided that they had learned too much about Moscow’s layout and had them arrested on espionage charges and deported.

The beauty of its stations (if not its trains) is well-documented, and certainly no accident. In its illustrious first phases and particularly after the Second World War, the greatest architects of Soviet era were recruited to create gleaming temples celebrating the Revolution, the USSR, and the war triumph. No two stations are exactly alike, and each of the classic showpieces has a theme. There are world-famous shrines to Futurist architecture, a celebration of electricity, tributes to individuals and regions of the former Soviet Union. Each marble slab, mosaic tile, or light fixture was placed with intent, all in service to a station’s aesthetic; each element, f rom the smallest brass ear of corn to a large blood-spattered sword on a World War II mural, is an essential part of the whole.

red zone trips nfl

The Metro is a monument to the Soviet propaganda project it was intended to be when it opened in 1935 with the slogan “Building a Palace for the People”. It brought the grand interiors of Imperial Russia to ordinary Muscovites, celebrated the Soviet Union’s past achievements while promising its citizens a bright Soviet future, and of course, it was a show-piece for the world to witness the might and sophistication of life in the Soviet Union.

It may be a museum, but it’s no relic. U p to nine million people use it daily, more than the London Underground and New York Subway combined. (Along with, at one time, about 20 stray dogs that learned to commute on the Metro.)

In its 80+ year history, the Metro has expanded in phases and fits and starts, in step with the fortunes of Moscow and Russia. Now, partly in preparation for the World Cup 2018, it’s also modernizing. New trains allow passengers to walk the entire length of the train without having to change carriages. The system is becoming more visitor-friendly. (There are helpful stickers on the floor marking out the best selfie spots .) But there’s a price to modernity: it’s phasing out one of its beloved institutions, the escalator attendants. Often they are middle-aged or elderly women—“ escalator grandmas ” in news accounts—who have held the post for decades, sitting in their tiny kiosks, scolding commuters for bad escalator etiquette or even bad posture, or telling jokes . They are slated to be replaced, when at all, by members of the escalator maintenance staff.

For all its achievements, the Metro lags behind Moscow’s above-ground growth, as Russia’s capital sprawls ever outwards, generating some of the world’s worst traffic jams . But since 2011, the Metro has been in the middle of an ambitious and long-overdue enlargement; 60 new stations are opening by 2020. If all goes to plan, the 2011-2020 period will have brought 125 miles of new tracks and over 100 new stations — a 40 percent increase — the fastest and largest expansion phase in any period in the Metro’s history.

Facts: 14 lines Opening hours: 5 a.m-1 a.m. Rush hour(s): 8-10 a.m, 4-8 p.m. Single ride: 55₽ (about 85 cents) Wi-Fi network-wide

red zone trips nfl

Buying Tickets

  • Ticket machines have a button to switch to English.
  • You can buy specific numbers of rides: 1, 2, 5, 11, 20, or 60. Hold up fingers to show how many rides you want to buy.
  • There is also a 90-minute ticket , which gets you 1 trip on the metro plus an unlimited number of transfers on other transport (bus, tram, etc) within 90 minutes.
  • Or, you can buy day tickets with unlimited rides: one day (218₽/ US$4), three days (415₽/US$7) or seven days (830₽/US$15). Check the rates here to stay up-to-date.
  • If you’re going to be using the Metro regularly over a few days, it’s worth getting a Troika card , a contactless, refillable card you can use on all public transport. Using the Metro is cheaper with one of these: a single ride is 36₽, not 55₽. Buy them and refill them in the Metro stations, and they’re valid for 5 years, so you can keep it for next time. Or, if you have a lot of cash left on it when you leave, you can get it refunded at the Metro Service Centers at Ulitsa 1905 Goda, 25 or at Staraya Basmannaya 20, Building 1.
  • You can also buy silicone bracelets and keychains with built-in transport chips that you can use as a Troika card. (A Moscow Metro Fitbit!) So far, you can only get these at the Pushkinskaya metro station Live Helpdesk and souvenir shops in the Mayakovskaya and Trubnaya metro stations. The fare is the same as for the Troika card.
  • You can also use Apple Pay and Samsung Pay.

Rules, spoken and unspoken

No smoking, no drinking, no filming, no littering. Photography is allowed, although it used to be banned.

Stand to the right on the escalator. Break this rule and you risk the wrath of the legendary escalator attendants. (No shenanigans on the escalators in general.)

Get out of the way. Find an empty corner to hide in when you get off a train and need to stare at your phone. Watch out getting out of the train in general; when your train doors open, people tend to appear from nowhere or from behind ornate marble columns, walking full-speed.

Always offer your seat to elderly ladies (what are you, a monster?).

An Easy Tour

This is no Metro Marathon ( 199 stations in 20 hours ). It’s an easy tour, taking in most—though not all—of the notable stations, the bulk of it going clockwise along the Circle line, with a couple of short detours. These stations are within minutes of one another, and the whole tour should take about 1-2 hours.

Start at Mayakovskaya Metro station , at the corner of Tverskaya and Garden Ring,  Triumfalnaya Square, Moskva, Russia, 125047.

1. Mayakovskaya.  Named for Russian Futurist Movement poet Vladimir Mayakovsky and an attempt to bring to life the future he imagined in his poems. (The Futurist Movement, natch, was all about a rejecting the past and celebrating all things speed, industry, modern machines, youth, modernity.) The result: an Art Deco masterpiece that won the National Grand Prix for architecture at the New York World’s Fair in 1939. It’s all smooth, rounded shine and light, and gentle arches supported by columns of dark pink marble and stainless aircraft steel. Each of its 34 ceiling niches has a mosaic. During World War II, the station was used as an air-raid shelter and, at one point, a bunker for Stalin. He gave a subdued but rousing speech here in Nov. 6, 1941 as the Nazis bombed the city above.

red zone trips nfl

Take the 3/Green line one station to:

2. Belorusskaya. Opened in 1952, named after the connected Belarussky Rail Terminal, which runs trains between Moscow and Belarus. This is a light marble affair with a white, cake-like ceiling, lined with Belorussian patterns and 12 Florentine ceiling mosaics depicting life in Belarussia when it was built.

red zone trips nfl

Transfer onto the 1/Brown line. Then, one stop (clockwise) t o:

3. Novoslobodskaya.  This station was designed around the stained-glass panels, which were made in Latvia, because Alexey Dushkin, the Soviet starchitect who dreamed it up (and also designed Mayakovskaya station) couldn’t find the glass and craft locally. The stained glass is the same used for Riga’s Cathedral, and the panels feature plants, flowers, members of the Soviet intelligentsia (musician, artist, architect) and geometric shapes.

red zone trips nfl

Go two stops east on the 1/Circle line to:

4. Komsomolskaya. Named after the Komsomol, or the Young Communist League, this might just be peak Stalin Metro style. Underneath the hub for three regional railways, it was intended to be a grand gateway to Moscow and is today its busiest station. It has chandeliers; a yellow ceiling with Baroque embellishments; and in the main hall, a colossal red star overlaid on golden, shimmering tiles. Designer Alexey Shchusev designed it as an homage to the speech Stalin gave at Red Square on Nov. 7, 1941, in which he invoked Russia’s illustrious military leaders as a pep talk to Soviet soldiers through the first catastrophic year of the war.   The station’s eight large mosaics are of the leaders referenced in the speech, such as Alexander Nevsky, a 13th-century prince and military commander who bested German and Swedish invading armies.

red zone trips nfl

One more stop clockwise to Kurskaya station,  and change onto the 3/Blue  line, and go one stop to:

5. Baumanskaya.   Opened in 1944. Named for the Bolshevik Revolutionary Nikolai Bauman , whose monument and namesake district are aboveground here. Though he seemed like a nasty piece of work (he apparently once publicly mocked a woman he had impregnated, who later hung herself), he became a Revolutionary martyr when he was killed in 1905 in a skirmish with a monarchist, who hit him on the head with part of a steel pipe. The station is in Art Deco style with atmospherically dim lighting, and a series of bronze sculptures of soldiers and homefront heroes during the War. At one end, there is a large mosaic portrait of Lenin.

red zone trips nfl

Stay on that train direction one more east to:

6. Elektrozavodskaya. As you may have guessed from the name, this station is the Metro’s tribute to all thing electrical, built in 1944 and named after a nearby lightbulb factory. It has marble bas-relief sculptures of important figures in electrical engineering, and others illustrating the Soviet Union’s war-time struggles at home. The ceiling’s recurring rows of circular lamps give the station’s main tunnel a comforting glow, and a pleasing visual effect.

red zone trips nfl

Double back two stops to Kurskaya station , and change back to the 1/Circle line. Sit tight for six stations to:

7. Kiyevskaya. This was the last station on the Circle line to be built, in 1954, completed under Nikita Khrushchev’ s guidance, as a tribute to his homeland, Ukraine. Its three large station halls feature images celebrating Ukraine’s contributions to the Soviet Union and Russo-Ukrainian unity, depicting musicians, textile-working, soldiers, farmers. (One hall has frescoes, one mosaics, and the third murals.) Shortly after it was completed, Khrushchev condemned the architectural excesses and unnecessary luxury of the Stalin era, which ushered in an epoch of more austere Metro stations. According to the legend at least, he timed the policy in part to ensure no Metro station built after could outshine Kiyevskaya.

red zone trips nfl

Change to the 3/Blue line and go one stop west.

8. Park Pobedy. This is the deepest station on the Metro, with one of the world’s longest escalators, at 413 feet. If you stand still, the escalator ride to the surface takes about three minutes .) Opened in 2003 at Victory Park, the station celebrates two of Russia’s great military victories. Each end has a mural by Georgian artist Zurab Tsereteli, who also designed the “ Good Defeats Evil ” statue at the UN headquarters in New York. One mural depicts the Russian generals’ victory over the French in 1812 and the other, the German surrender of 1945. The latter is particularly striking; equal parts dramatic, triumphant, and gruesome. To the side, Red Army soldiers trample Nazi flags, and if you look closely there’s some blood spatter among the detail. Still, the biggest impressions here are the marble shine of the chessboard floor pattern and the pleasingly geometric effect if you view from one end to the other.

red zone trips nfl

Keep going one more stop west to:

9. Slavyansky Bulvar.  One of the Metro’s youngest stations, it opened in 2008. With far higher ceilings than many other stations—which tend to have covered central tunnels on the platforms—it has an “open-air” feel (or as close to it as you can get, one hundred feet under). It’s an homage to French architect Hector Guimard, he of the Art Nouveau entrances for the Paris M é tro, and that’s precisely what this looks like: A Moscow homage to the Paris M é tro, with an additional forest theme. A Cyrillic twist on Guimard’s Metro-style lettering over the benches, furnished with t rees and branch motifs, including creeping vines as towering lamp-posts.

red zone trips nfl

Stay on the 3/Blue line and double back four stations to:

10. Arbatskaya. Its first iteration, Arbatskaya-Smolenskaya station, was damaged by German bombs in 1941. It was rebuilt in 1953, and designed to double as a bomb shelter in the event of nuclear war, although unusually for stations built in the post-war phase, this one doesn’t have a war theme. It may also be one of the system’s most elegant: Baroque, but toned down a little, with red marble floors and white ceilings with gilded bronze c handeliers.

red zone trips nfl

Jump back on the 3/Blue line  in the same direction and take it one more stop:

11. Ploshchad Revolyutsii (Revolution Square). Opened in 1938, and serving Red Square and the Kremlin . Its renowned central hall has marble columns flanked by 76 bronze statues of Soviet heroes: soldiers, students, farmers, athletes, writers, parents. Some of these statues’ appendages have a yellow sheen from decades of Moscow’s commuters rubbing them for good luck. Among the most popular for a superstitious walk-by rub: the snout of a frontier guard’s dog, a soldier’s gun (where the touch of millions of human hands have tapered the gun barrel into a fine, pointy blade), a baby’s foot, and a woman’s knee. (A brass rooster also sports the telltale gold sheen, though I am told that rubbing the rooster is thought to bring bad luck. )

Now take the escalator up, and get some fresh air.

red zone trips nfl

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COMMENTS

  1. NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Attempts per Game

    Points per Play Margin. Touchdowns per Game. Red Zone Scoring Attempts per Game. Red Zone Scores per Game (TDs only) Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) Extra Point Attempts per Game. Extra Points Made per Game. Two Point Conversion Attempts per Game. Two Point Conversions per Game.

  2. NFL Redzone Stats: Leaders

    Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks led all positions in touchdowns, as he had 25 red zone touchdowns. 15 of those 25 came from within the ten yard line. He also only turned the ball over once. Wilson also so the most passing attempts. Get updated Red Zone stats for all 32 NFL teams on LINEUPS, including target share, touches, attempts, and ...

  3. What We Can Learn: Team Red Zone Stats & Production

    That was the lowest rate since the 2018 season. From 2010-2021, 81.2% of all teams that failed to score on half of their red zone trips came back and increased their red zone conversion rate the following season with an average spike of +12.6%. Pittsburgh averaged 6.8 yards on their touchdowns in 2022.

  4. The 2020 NFL RedZone Rankings

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  5. 2022 Red Zone Passing Stats

    2022 NFL Red Zone Passing Stats. Previous Season Next Season. Super Bowl Champion: Kansas City Chiefs. AP MVP: Patrick Mahomes. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Garrett Wilson. AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Sauce Gardner. ... > Red Zone Passing . Full Site Menu. Return to Top; Players.

  6. Successful teams turn the red zone into the go zone

    Here is an inside look at what has transpired in the red zone from 2006 through 2008. Teams averaged slightly more than three red-zone trips per game, which equated to 1,558 visits per season.

  7. Ravens set mark with touchdowns on first 12 red zone trips

    The change in the Ravens' red zone fortune dates back to last season. In the past eight games (including three in 2018), Baltimore has scored 26 touchdowns on 32 red zone trips (81 percent).

  8. Falcons score one touchdown on five red zone trips as 49ers win 31-13

    By. Charean Williams. Published December 19, 2021 02:03 PM. The Falcons had five red zone trips. They scored one touchdown and one field goal. On three possessions they were stopped on downs inside the 10. The 49ers rolled to a 31-13 victory, moving to 8-6 on the season. The Falcons fell to 6-8, putting a big dent in their playoff hopes.

  9. Analysis: Red zone efficiency down for 19 NFL teams seven weeks into

    The red zone has become a danger zone for many NFL offenses. Nineteen teams are scoring touchdowns at a lower rate inside the opponents' 20-yard line than they did last season. The list includes the teams that finished Nos. 1-8 in red zone efficiency in 2022. The Cowboys are down from 71.43% to just 39.13%. The Chiefs are at 57.14%, down from ...

  10. 49ers-Packers preview: Which team has the better red zone offense

    Steve Wilks' defense surrendered 26 red zone trips, which was the tenth-lowest rate in the NFL. They allowed a touchdown inside the 20 50 percent of the time, which was the 9th-best rate. Green ...

  11. NFL RedZone

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  12. NFL Stats: 2021 Team Red Zone

    Below, we have NFL team red zone stats from the 2021 season. If you're a stats nerd, you likely already know how to use these stats. If you're trying to use these NFL stats for fantasy football, there's a lot to gain from the table below. First, defenses that allow red zone trips but prevent touchdowns (bend but don't break) leads to ...

  13. What is NFL RedZone?

    NFL RedZone brings you every touchdown from every game, every Sunday afternoon during the regular season and acts as the perfect fantasy football companion. With an NFL+ Premium subscription, you can now watch NFL RedZone from any supported device.'. NFL RedZone is also available through pay TV providers.

  14. What is NFL RedZone?

    NFL RedZone brings the best of the Game-day action in the NFL. As a live broadcast for. Sunday afternoon games, NFL RedZone focuses on the games where an offense is inside. the 20-yard line (in the 'RedZone'). Not only that, but NFL RedZone guarantees to bring you. every touchdown from every Sunday Game Day.

  15. Jerry Jones: Cowboys' red-zone struggles 'not a long-range concern'

    After scoring touchdowns on three of four red zone trips in Week 1, the Cowboys have cratered the past two weeks, going 2 of 6 in Week 2 and 1 of 5 in Week 3's loss to Arizona. Dallas' 15 red-zone ...

  16. 2023 NFL Red Zone Stats

    View 2023 NFL Red Zone Stats. We break down the Red Zone performance inside the 20 yard line of all Running Backs in one convenient report. Import your fantasy team to find out whos available in ...

  17. NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only)

    Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) Extra Point Attempts per Game. Extra Points Made per Game. Two Point Conversion Attempts per Game. Two Point Conversions per Game. Points per Field Goal Attempt. Extra Point Conversion Percentage. Two Point Conversion Percentage. Offensive Touchdowns per Game.

  18. Tua Tagovailoa's historic red-zone success; Colts' blunder: Sharp Edges

    Updated Nov. 29, 2022 6:32 p.m. ET. Warren Sharp. FOX Sports NFL Writer. When Tua Tagovailoa is in the red zone, he's been absolutely money. On the season, 36% of the passes he throws there ...

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